Fewer Births: The Fall in Australia’s Fertility Rate
Australia’s total fertility rate was 1.481 babies per woman in 2024, the lowest since at least 1975 and down from 1.917 in 2011. The fall is concentrated among women under 35.
The Age Pyramid, 2011 to 2026: How Australia’s Age Structure Has Shifted
Between 2011 and 2026 the number of Australians aged 75 to 79 rose 86% while children under five rose 3.2%. The median age went from 37.2 to 38.5 and the most common single age from 39 to 31.
The Stability Paradox: What Four Years of Population Flows Reveal About Structural Scores
Structural scores measured in 2021 predicted essentially nothing about where Australia's population grew over the following four years — density did. But residential stability was predictable, by one measure: tenure structure anticipated four years of churn at r = −0.54....
The Downsizing Dead End That Isn’t
A pre-registered "downsizing dead end" hypothesis failed twice: the age–building relationship is weak and bends upward in the oldest LGAs, and 55% of over-65s live in the highest-building metro quintiles. If a dead end exists, it's product mix — not...
It’s Not Wealth. It’s Time.
Outright home ownership tracks age almost perfectly across Australia's LGAs (+0.884) and tracks income negatively (−0.489). Mining boomtowns and harbour suburbs share the same high incomes but sit at opposite ends of the ownership scale — the real driver is...
The Absorption Gap: Population Growth vs Building Approvals Across 546 LGAs
Population growth tracks building approvals closely across 546 LGAs (r = 0.952) — but Western Australia absorbs growth at 4.63 persons per approval, nearly double Victoria and NSW. Splitting population growth by migration source reveals why: inner and middle-ring Perth...
The Approval Gap: Population Growth and Building Approval Intensity Across 70 Australian LGAs
Population growth and building approvals correlate strongly across 70 LGAs (r = 0.84) — but 24 LGAs depart from that pattern by 1.75 dwellings per 1,000 residents or more. Eleven established, mostly high-advantage suburbs under-build relative to their own growth;...
The Nominal Illusion
Almost two million taxable individuals live in one of 83 LGAs where a decade of nominal income growth becomes flat-to-negative once inflation is applied. An APN LGA Intelligence analysis of a decade of ATO taxation data, CPI-deflated, across all 531...
The Income Divergence: A Decade of Taxable Income Growth Across Australia’s 50 Most Populous LGAs
Sydney's median taxable income grew 51.5% nominally over the decade to 2023-24 - 16.3% in real terms. Melbourne's grew 16.2% nominally, a 10.9% real-terms decline. An APN LGA Intelligence analysis of a decade of ATO taxation data, CPI-deflated, across Australia's...
The Scale Illusion: Population Size and the APN Bedrock Score Across Australia’s 50 Most Populous LGAs
Brisbane (1.375M people) and Knox (163,820) sit within 1.5 points of each other on APN Bedrock composite — 55.86 and 54.38. Across the 50 most populous LGAs, population size explains less than 0.1 per cent of the variance in Bedrock...
Compound Demographic Pressures Constrain Australian Residential Asset Base
Compound demographic pressures are creating a structural constraint on the Australian housing market, limiting access for non-incumbent cohorts. APN analysis identifies that a combination of high migration-led population growth, significant asset retention by a debt-free senior cohort, and suppressed household...
Property Pain: Which Generation Copped the Rawest Deal?
This analysis, based on McCrindle Research data originally published on Morningstar Australia, examines intergenerational housing affordability in Australia, revealing a stark contrast between Baby Boomers and Generation Z. In 1980, a Sydney house cost Baby Boomers 5.1 times their annual...
