What the Evidence Can Specify: The Transition from Momentum to Margin – A Founder’s Synthesis
In six pieces, this series has examined a single proposition from six directions. The comparative evidence from Germany, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, and South Korea adds the most important qualification: sequence is a binding variable — absorptive capacity must be...
The Capacity Problem: Why Released Capital Has Nowhere to Land – A Founder’s Analysis
The binding constraint on Australia's productive transition is physical and regulatory, not financial. Capital appetite exists. Absorptive capacity does not — at scale. Approximately 7 per cent of zoned industrial land in Greater Sydney is serviceable. Grid connections for large...
The Digital Dilemma: How the Transition’s Fastest-Moving Capital May Be Undermining Its Own Foundation — A Founder’s Analysis
The flow of capital into data centres is the clearest proof that the productive yield thesis holds in practice. But data centres consume the same serviced industrial land and grid connection capacity that advanced manufacturing requires — continuously, at scale,...
The Cost We Can Now Name: How the Speculative Premium Suppressed Australia’s Productive Economy – A Founder’s Analysis
The 2025 Founders Series argued that speculative property crowds out productive investment from domestic evidence. That argument now has external causal corroboration. The IMF's firm-level analysis of Canada documents the collateral channel: a protracted housing boom directs bank credit toward...
The Yield That Was Always There: Productive Property and the Return Residential Never Delivered – A Founder’s Analysis
The effective yield advantage of productive industrial property over residential investment is structural, not cyclical — resting on net lease mechanics that deliver a clean income return well above what residential investment produces after frictional costs. The yield was always...
Two Signals, One Economy: The Transition That Is and Isn’t – A Founder’s Analysis
The data on Australia's capital transition contains an apparent contradiction. Foreign capital, superannuation, and listed markets are all moving toward productive assets. The residential mortgage book — $2.5 trillion, growing at 6.6 per cent — is not moving. Both readings...
