Not every part of the housing economy sits far from its usual level. Unemployment was 4.65% in August 2026, below its 2011–2025 average of 5.15% but above its 2022 low; jobs grew 2.6% over the year to June, a little above their usual pace; and new lending to first home buyers and to investors grew at close to its average rates. Migration is the exception. Net overseas migration was 101.0 thousand in the March quarter, down from 165.5 thousand three years earlier, but still above any March quarter from 2011 to 2020.
Each reading measures how far conditions sit from their 2011–2025 average, in standard deviations. The body gives each measure in its own units.
Measuring against the usual
A condition is “near normal” here when its latest value sits close to where it has usually been over 2011 to 2025, within the range it has moved in over those fifteen years. The table sets out each measure against that average. It describes the latest data only; it is not a forecast.
| Measure | Latest | 2011–2025 average | 2011–2025 range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 4.65% (August 2026) | 5.15% | 3.4% to 7.4% |
| Filled jobs, growth over the year | 2.6% (June quarter 2026) | 1.9% | −5.2% to 7.8% |
| New lending to first home buyers, growth over the year | 9.8% (June quarter 2026) | 7.9% | −22.7% to 68.0% |
| New lending to investors, growth over the year | 7.9% (June quarter 2026) | 9.4% | −31.9% to 96.2% |
| Net overseas migration, March quarter | 101.0 thousand (2026) | 82.4 thousand | −14.2 to 165.5 thousand |
| Net overseas migration, year to March | 292.1 thousand (2026) | 235.5 thousand | −94.4 to 495.8 thousand |
Unemployment and filled jobs are seasonally adjusted; migration and lending are original series. Lending growth is the value of new loan commitments against the same quarter a year earlier; investor lending excludes refinancing. Sources: ABS Labour Force, Australia, August 2026; ABS Labour Account, Australia, June 2026; ABS National, state and territory population, March 2026; ABS Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026.
Jobs: between the highs and the lows
The unemployment rate was 4.65% in August 2026, seasonally adjusted, up from 4.48% in July. That is below the 2011–2025 average of 5.15%, which is lifted by the years from 2011 to 2019, when the rate averaged above 5% in every year. It is above the 4.2% average of 2025 and well above the lows of 2022 and 2023, when the rate averaged about 3.7%. Over the fifteen years the rate ranged from 3.4% to 7.4%, the high in July 2020.
Unemployment rate, January 2011 to August 2026
Persons, seasonally adjusted, monthly; the dotted line is the 2011–2025 average. Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, August 2026, Table 1.
Jobs are growing at about their usual pace. The ABS Labour Account counted 2.6% more filled jobs in the June quarter 2026 than a year earlier, against an average of 1.9% a year over 2011 to 2025 and 1.7% over 2011 to 2019. The Labour Force Survey has been in transition while the ABS modernised it. The ABS reports that all rotation groups have now moved to the new systems and questionnaire, with the standard rotation pattern resuming in August 2026, and that it adjusted the weighting of about 2.7% of the August sample, in one rotation group in Victoria.
Household lending: growing at about its average rates
New lending to first home buyers was 9.8% higher in the June quarter 2026 than a year earlier, by value, against a 2011–2025 average of 7.9%. New lending to investors, excluding refinancing, was 7.9% higher, against an average of 9.4%. Both have come down from the December quarter 2025, when first home buyer lending was 22.9% and investor lending 32.3% higher than a year earlier. In the June quarter first home buyer lending grew faster than investor lending for the first time since the December quarter 2023.
These growth rates move widely from quarter to quarter: over 2011 to 2025 investor lending growth ranged from −31.9% to 96.2%. A reading near the average is a single quarter, and the next can move by several points.
Migration: easing, but still above earlier years
Net overseas migration is the difference between long-term arrivals and long-term departures, as the ABS counts them. It is strongly seasonal: from 2011 to 2025 the March quarter was the highest of the calendar year in 12 of 15 years, and higher than the June and December quarters in every year except 2021 and 2022. So the fair comparison for the March quarter 2026 is with earlier March quarters.
Net overseas migration, March quarter, 2011 to 2026 (thousands)
Original series. Source: ABS National, state and territory population, March 2026, Table 1.
At 101.0 thousand, the March quarter 2026 was the lowest March quarter since 2021, down from 165.5 thousand in 2023. It was still above every March quarter from 2011 to 2020, when the highest was 88.8 thousand in 2017, and above the 2011–2025 March-quarter average of 82.4 thousand.
Net overseas migration, year to March, 2011 to 2026 (thousands)
Sum of the four quarters to March. Original series. Source: ABS National, state and territory population, March 2026, Table 1.
Over the year to March 2026, net overseas migration added 292.1 thousand people, down from 309.4 thousand a year earlier and from 495.8 thousand and 493.9 thousand in the years to March 2023 and 2024. That is still more than in any year to March from 2011 to 2020, when the highest was 259.7 thousand. The Migration Trends reading in the header compares the March quarter with the average of all quarters, 60.2 thousand, which includes the quieter June and December quarters. Against the March-quarter average of 82.4 thousand the gap is 18.6 thousand rather than 40.8 thousand.
What this does not show
Being near an average is not the same as being comfortable: an unemployment rate below its fifteen-year average still means about one person in twenty-two in the labour force is looking for work, and first home buyer lending growing at its usual rate says nothing about how hard it is to buy a first home. The averages include unusual years, the pandemic above all, which pull them one way or another. The lending figures are values, so they rise with prices as well as with the number of loans. Migration and lending are original series: lending is compared with the same quarter a year earlier, and migration with earlier March quarters and full years, to set aside the seasonal pattern.
Findings are presented on the basis of data and evidence alone.
