Set each part of the economy that bears on housing against its own average since 2011, and a clear division appears. The price of borrowing sits furthest above its fifteen-year norm: the banks’ standard variable home-loan rate is two and a half points above its average, and the cash rate almost two points above. Housing costs within the Consumer Price Index remain well above their long-run pace, although their annual rise eased from 6.8% in June to 5.0% in July. The labour market, by contrast, is tighter than its long-run average, output per person is growing a little more slowly than usual, and the cost of the materials that go into a new house is rising at close to its ordinary pace.
Each σ figure is APN’s certified reading for that condition: how far it sits from its 2011–2025 average, measured in standard deviations.
A fifteen-year yardstick
Every measure in this piece is compared with its own average from 2011 to 2025. That window is long enough to hold very different conditions: the low-rate, low-inflation years of the 2010s, the pandemic, and the inflation and interest-rate rise of 2022 and 2023. An average across all of it is a neutral reference point — not a target, and not a claim about what is “normal” for the years ahead — that makes a 2026 reading easier to place. Each measure is taken at its latest available reading, and because every one is expressed as a percentage (a rate, or an annual rate of change), the gap between that reading and its average can be shown in percentage points and compared side by side.
Latest reading minus its 2011–2025 average, percentage points
Latest available readings: cash rate target, August 2026; standard variable home-loan rate, consumer prices, underlying inflation, housing costs and unemployment, July 2026; builders’ output prices, builders’ input costs and output per person, June quarter 2026. Sources: RBA Statistical Tables F1.1 and F5; ABS 6401.0 Consumer Price Index; ABS 6427.0 Producer Price Indexes, Tables 17 and 18; ABS 6202.0 Labour Force; ABS 5206.0 National Accounts. Gold bars sit above their average, blue bars below. For unemployment, a reading below its average means a tighter labour market.
Borrowing costs sit furthest from their averages: the banks’ standard variable home-loan rate is 2.53 percentage points above its fifteen-year average and the cash rate 1.99 points above. Builders’ output prices come next, 1.78 points above, with housing costs close behind at 1.70 points above their long-run pace. Underlying and headline inflation follow, about a point or less above their averages. At the other end, builders’ input costs are within a third of a point of their average, output per person is growing slightly more slowly than usual, and unemployment sits 0.68 points below its long-run level.
Borrowing costs sit at the top of their range
The Reserve Bank’s cash rate target moved from 3.60% at the end of 2025 to 4.35% by June 2026, and was unchanged at 4.35% in August. That is almost two points above its 2011–2025 average of 2.36%. The banks’ standard variable rate for owner-occupier home loans — the reference rate lenders publish, from which many borrowers receive a discount — was 8.77% in July 2026. Its average since 2011 is 6.24%, and the current reading equals the highest level in that fifteen-year window.
Cash rate target and banks’ standard variable home-loan rate, %, 2011–2026
Sources: RBA Statistical Table F1 (cash rate target, quarter-end) and F5 (indicator lending rates: housing loans, banks, standard variable, owner-occupier), to the June quarter 2026. Dotted lines mark 2011–2025 averages: standard variable rate 6.24%, cash rate 2.36%. Most borrowers pay less than the standard variable rate after discounts, but it moves in step with the rates actually charged.
Housing costs remain above their usual pace, after easing in July
The Consumer Price Index tracks the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services bought by households. Its housing group — rents, the cost of buying a newly built home, utilities, rates and household maintenance — rose 5.0% in the twelve months to July 2026, down from 6.8% in the twelve months to June. Even after that easing, it is 1.7 points above its average annual pace of 3.3% since 2011. Headline inflation was 3.5% over the same twelve months, 0.8 points above its 2.6% average. The trimmed mean, which strips out the largest price rises and falls each period to show underlying inflation, was 3.6%, one point above its average of 2.6%.
Housing costs, headline CPI and trimmed mean, annual % change, 2012–2026
Source: ABS 6401.0 Consumer Price Index, quarterly figures compiled from the monthly CPI, to the June quarter 2026: All Groups and Housing group index numbers (annual change calculated from the index) and Trimmed Mean (seasonally adjusted). Twelve months to July 2026: housing 5.0%, All Groups 3.5%, trimmed mean 3.6%. Dotted lines mark 2011–2025 averages: housing 3.3%, headline CPI 2.6%.
The long-run chart uses the quarterly figures, which the ABS compiles from the monthly CPI and which carry the full fifteen-year history. The June quarter reading, 6.8% above a year earlier for housing, shows how high the rate stood before July’s easing. The detail behind the July figures is set out in APN’s July CPI analysis.
Builders’ prices are rising faster than builders’ costs
Two producer price measures describe house construction from opposite sides. Output prices record what builders charge for a new house; input costs record what they pay for materials and other inputs. In the year to the June quarter of 2026, builders’ output prices rose 5.9%, against an average of 4.1% since 2011. Input costs rose 3.8%, within a third of a point of their 3.5% average. Both measures remain far below the 2022 peaks, when output prices rose 20.5% and input costs 17.3% in a year.
House construction output prices and input costs, annual % change, 2012–2026
Sources: ABS 6427.0 Producer Price Indexes, Table 17 (output of the construction industries, house construction, Australia, original) and Table 18 (input to house construction, weighted average of six capital cities); annual change calculated from the published index. Dotted lines mark 2011–2025 averages: output prices 4.1%, input costs 3.5%.
Jobs and output per person
The unemployment rate was 4.46% in July 2026, 0.68 points below its 2011–2025 average of 5.14%. It has risen from the lows of 2022 and 2023 but remains lower than for most of the 2010s. July’s estimate was drawn from a smaller survey sample than usual, which the ABS notes widens its standard errors. Output per person grew 0.7% in the year to the June quarter of 2026, a little below its average of 0.9% — an average that itself spans both the sharp fall and the rebound of the pandemic years.
Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, %, 2011–2026
Source: ABS 6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, unemployment rate, persons, seasonally adjusted (quarter-end month; latest July 2026). The dotted line marks the 2011–2025 average of 5.14%.
Reading the comparison
Placed against fifteen years of history, the economy facing housing in 2026 divides along cost lines. The price of borrowing sits furthest above its long-run average, and what households pay for housing remains above its usual pace even after easing in July. The price builders charge for a new house is rising faster than usual, while the cost of their inputs is not. Employment conditions remain firmer than the long-run norm, and output per person is growing close to its usual pace. The comparison describes where each measure stands now; it does not indicate where any of them will move next.
Findings are presented on the basis of data and evidence alone.
