APN Codex Node 21410 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified

Population Growth & Distribution

Z-Score
−0.1883σ
Period
Q1 2026
Position
49.4 of 175 qtrs
Vintage
2026-Q4
1Node Definition

Population Growth & Distribution (21410) measures how fast Australia’s population is growing: growth over the year in estimated resident population, in per cent. Higher readings mean faster growth, and more people to house. It is a component of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), at a weight of 0.25.

Known limitations

Measure change, October 2026. Until October 2026 this node read the level of the population. A population level rises almost every quarter, so its position measured the date rather than conditions; the node now reads the rate of growth, and the level is shown as context. Estimated resident population is revised at each Census rebasing, and recent quarters are preliminary. The node reads the national total; growth by state is read in the State & Territory Conditions series (21800).

2Metric Definition

Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21410)

Z-Score Construction
Current (Q1 2026)−0.1883σ
PtEstimated resident population, Australia, end of quarter t: 27,921,200 at March 2026, 27,528,400 a year earlier
μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation of growth over the year, 2011–2025 (1.52% and 0.48 points, 60 quarters)

Metric typology: single-series Z-score of a growth rate.

3Data Sources
InputSourceFrequencyCoverage
Estimated resident population, AustraliaABS National, state and territory population (3101.0), A2133251WQuarterlySeptember quarter 1981 to March quarter 2026

Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node.

4Reading History

The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline.

Population Growth & Distribution (21410) · Reading History
Node Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to March 2026
−0.1883σ · position 49.4, ranked against 175 quarters
Reading, ranked quartersNormal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)Current reading

The March quarter 2026 reading, −0.1883σ, ranks 49.4 against 175 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.0504σ to +0.6110σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.0964σ in the September quarter 2023, and the lowest −2.9435σ in the March quarter 2021.

Show the data
QuarterReadingBasis
Q3 1982+0.3197σRanked
Q4 1982+0.0870σRanked
Q1 1983−0.0686σRanked
Q2 1983−0.2888σRanked
Q3 1983−0.4298σRanked
Q4 1983−0.5077σRanked
Q1 1984−0.6432σRanked
Q2 1984−0.6428σRanked
Q3 1984−0.6019σRanked
Q4 1984−0.5516σRanked
Q1 1985−0.4075σRanked
Q2 1985−0.3666σRanked
Q3 1985−0.3449σRanked
Q4 1985−0.1936σRanked
Q1 1986−0.1850σRanked
Q2 1986−0.1250σRanked
Q3 1986−0.0668σRanked
Q4 1986−0.0408σRanked
Q1 1987+0.0032σRanked
Q2 1987+0.0309σRanked
Q3 1987+0.1280σRanked
Q4 1987+0.1395σRanked
Q1 1988+0.2798σRanked
Q2 1988+0.2735σRanked
Q3 1988+0.4554σRanked
Q4 1988+0.5523σRanked
Q1 1989+0.5312σRanked
Q2 1989+0.3923σRanked
Q3 1989+0.0907σRanked
Q4 1989−0.0455σRanked
Q1 1990−0.1587σRanked
Q2 1990−0.0554σRanked
Q3 1990−0.0857σRanked
Q4 1990−0.2932σRanked
Q1 1991−0.3206σRanked
Q2 1991−0.4872σRanked
Q3 1991−0.5092σRanked
Q4 1991−0.6205σRanked
Q1 1992−0.6942σRanked
Q2 1992−0.8123σRanked
Q3 1992−0.9417σRanked
Q4 1992−1.0219σRanked
Q1 1993−1.1460σRanked
Q2 1993−1.2938σRanked
Q3 1993−1.2488σRanked
Q4 1993−1.2336σRanked
Q1 1994−1.2334σRanked
Q2 1994−1.1397σRanked
Q3 1994−1.0878σRanked
Q4 1994−1.1072σRanked
Q1 1995−1.0538σRanked
Q2 1995−0.8248σRanked
Q3 1995−0.7912σRanked
Q4 1995−0.5257σRanked
Q1 1996−0.5538σRanked
Q2 1996−0.6145σRanked
Q3 1996−0.6317σRanked
Q4 1996−0.7381σRanked
Q1 1997−0.7204σRanked
Q2 1997−0.8919σRanked
Q3 1997−1.0213σRanked
Q4 1997−1.1118σRanked
Q1 1998−1.0755σRanked
Q2 1998−1.0692σRanked
Q3 1998−1.0171σRanked
Q4 1998−0.9557σRanked
Q1 1999−0.9352σRanked
Q2 1999−0.8658σRanked
Q3 1999−0.8209σRanked
Q4 1999−0.7791σRanked
Q1 2000−0.7586σRanked
Q2 2000−0.7606σRanked
Q3 2000−0.7478σRanked
Q4 2000−0.7160σRanked
Q1 2001−0.5423σRanked
Q2 2001−0.4675σRanked
Q3 2001−0.5059σRanked
Q4 2001−0.4875σRanked
Q1 2002−0.6868σRanked
Q2 2002−0.7748σRanked
Q3 2002−0.7890σRanked
Q4 2002−0.8056σRanked
Q1 2003−0.7668σRanked
Q2 2003−0.7485σRanked
Q3 2003−0.7657σRanked
Q4 2003−0.8011σRanked
Q1 2004−0.8549σRanked
Q2 2004−0.9178σRanked
Q3 2004−0.8787σRanked
Q4 2004−0.8587σRanked
Q1 2005−0.7236σRanked
Q2 2005−0.6077σRanked
Q3 2005−0.5019σRanked
Q4 2005−0.4007σRanked
Q1 2006−0.3499σRanked
Q2 2006−0.3291σRanked
Q3 2006−0.0989σRanked
Q4 2006+0.0789σRanked
Q1 2007+0.3569σRanked
Q2 2007+0.6712σRanked
Q3 2007+0.7077σRanked
Q4 2007+0.7591σRanked
Q1 2008+0.9123σRanked
Q2 2008+1.0501σRanked
Q3 2008+1.2309σRanked
Q4 2008+1.3863σRanked
Q1 2009+1.2922σRanked
Q2 2009+1.1707σRanked
Q3 2009+0.9492σRanked
Q4 2009+0.6184σRanked
Q1 2010+0.3315σRanked
Q2 2010+0.1040σRanked
Q3 2010−0.1369σRanked
Q4 2010−0.2367σRanked
Q1 2011−0.2705σRanked
Q2 2011−0.2464σRanked
Q3 2011−0.0664σRanked
Q4 2011+0.1233σRanked
Q1 2012+0.3177σRanked
Q2 2012+0.5052σRanked
Q3 2012+0.5603σRanked
Q4 2012+0.5889σRanked
Q1 2013+0.5354σRanked
Q2 2013+0.4520σRanked
Q3 2013+0.3609σRanked
Q4 2013+0.1973σRanked
Q1 2014+0.1212σRanked
Q2 2014−0.0307σRanked
Q3 2014−0.0868σRanked
Q4 2014−0.0987σRanked
Q1 2015−0.1403σRanked
Q2 2015−0.1413σRanked
Q3 2015−0.1427σRanked
Q4 2015−0.1271σRanked
Q1 2016−0.0226σRanked
Q2 2016+0.1170σRanked
Q3 2016+0.2636σRanked
Q4 2016+0.3153σRanked
Q1 2017+0.3628σRanked
Q2 2017+0.2961σRanked
Q3 2017+0.2033σRanked
Q4 2017+0.0323σRanked
Q1 2018−0.0137σRanked
Q2 2018−0.0215σRanked
Q3 2018+0.0216σRanked
Q4 2018+0.0948σRanked
Q1 2019+0.0455σRanked
Q2 2019−0.0612σRanked
Q3 2019−0.0807σRanked
Q4 2019−0.0598σRanked
Q1 2020−0.1678σRanked
Q2 2020−0.5737σRanked
Q3 2020−1.5557σRanked
Q4 2020−2.2513σRanked
Q1 2021−2.9435σRanked
Q2 2021−2.8539σRanked
Q3 2021−2.5683σRanked
Q4 2021−1.9890σRanked
Q1 2022−1.0453σRanked
Q2 2022−0.4563σRanked
Q3 2022+0.5998σRanked
Q4 2022+1.2494σRanked
Q1 2023+1.6642σRanked
Q2 2023+1.9626σRanked
Q3 2023+2.0964σRanked
Q4 2023+1.8662σRanked
Q1 2024+1.5387σRanked
Q2 2024+1.0092σRanked
Q3 2024+0.4688σRanked
Q4 2024+0.1944σRanked
Q1 2025+0.0259σRanked
Q2 2025−0.0407σRanked
Q3 2025−0.0093σRanked
Q4 2025−0.1251σRanked
Q1 2026−0.1883σRanked
Z-Score
−0.1883σ
Q1 2026
Position
49.4
ranked against 175 quarters
Growth over the year
1.43%
to March 2026
Population
27.92 million
March 2026
Highest growth
2.53%
September 2023
Lowest growth
0.10%
March 2021
5Analytical Interpretation

At −0.1883σ (Q1 2026), the population grew 1.43% in the year to March 2026, slightly below its 2011–2025 average of 1.52%. Position. 49.4, ranked against 175 quarters since September 1982: close to the middle of the record.

Growth fell to 0.10% in the year to March 2021, while the international border was closed, and rose to 2.53% in the year to September 2023 as overseas migration resumed, the fastest since the record began in 1982. It has eased in each of the past two quarters.

7Certification Statement
APN Codex Node 21410 — Population Growth & Distribution — Certified
  • The input is a Tier-1 sovereign statistical release (ABS)
  • The Z-score of −0.1883σ (Q1 2026) is derived directly from the input against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated
  • The position is an empirical percentile rank against 175 quarters
  • The change from the population level to its growth rate, and population revisions, are disclosed