Demographic Trend Analysis
Demographic Trend Analysis (21440) measures how fast older residents are rising relative to the household base: the change over the year in the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 private households. Higher readings mean older residents growing faster than households, so a larger share of the housing stock is occupied by older households and turns over less often. It is a component of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), at a weight of 0.30.
Measure change, October 2026. Until October 2026 this node read the level of this ratio, on a household-size input whose recent values could not be sourced. The level rises with the calendar (a correlation with time of 0.997 over 2011–2025), so the node now reads its change over the year, and the level is shown as context. The household count is modelled, not measured between Censuses: population multiplied by the share living in private dwellings and divided by average household size, both taken from ABS Household and Family Projections. Each edition’s base-year estimate (June 2011, 2016 and 2021) is used as an anchor and interpolated by quarter, and the 2021-based projection is followed from June 2021. Recent quarters therefore rest on the projection’s assumptions; the 2026 Census, published from 2027, will re-anchor them.
Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21440)
Metric typology: single-series Z-score of a four-quarter change in a ratio.
| Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated resident population aged 65 and over, Australia | ABS National, state and territory population (3101.0), through the ABS Data API (ERP_Q) | Quarterly | September quarter 1981 to March quarter 2026 |
| Private households (modelled) | ABS estimated resident population with ABS Household and Family Projections, Series II | Quarterly | September quarter 2010 to March quarter 2026 |
Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node.
The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline.
The March quarter 2026 reading, +0.3915σ, ranks 75.9 against 59 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.1749σ to +1.3802σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.3798σ in the March quarter 2021, and the lowest −1.9527σ in the June quarter 2023.
Show the data
| Quarter | Reading | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2011 | +0.5590σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2011 | +0.6025σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2012 | +0.6646σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2012 | +0.7956σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2012 | +0.3908σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2012 | +0.2681σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2013 | +0.1532σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2013 | +0.0642σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2013 | +0.2014σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2013 | +0.1933σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2014 | +0.1251σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2014 | +0.0541σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2014 | −0.0182σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2014 | +0.0222σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2015 | +0.0110σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2015 | +0.0200σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2015 | +0.0146σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2015 | +0.0043σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2016 | −0.0404σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2016 | −0.0638σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2016 | −0.3082σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2016 | −0.5848σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2017 | −0.8724σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2017 | −1.0470σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2017 | −1.1305σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2017 | −0.9340σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2018 | −0.7859σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2018 | −0.6986σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2018 | −0.5400σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2018 | −0.5908σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2019 | −0.6553σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2019 | −0.5614σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2019 | −0.2743σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2019 | +0.3432σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2020 | +0.8886σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2020 | +1.3356σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2020 | +2.1589σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2020 | +2.1934σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2021 | +2.3798σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2021 | +2.1060σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2021 | +1.9422σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2021 | +1.5586σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2022 | +0.8339σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2022 | +0.4568σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2022 | −0.7294σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2022 | −1.3526σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2023 | −1.6954σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2023 | −1.9527σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2023 | −1.9332σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2023 | −1.6690σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2024 | −1.3625σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2024 | −0.8529σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2024 | −0.3821σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2024 | −0.1219σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2025 | +0.0860σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2025 | +0.2099σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2025 | +0.1796σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2025 | +0.3406σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2026 | +0.3915σ | Ranked |
At +0.3915σ (Q1 2026), the number of people aged 65 and over rose by 0.69 for every 100 households in the year to March 2026, a little faster than the 2011–2025 average of 0.61, to 45.69. Position. 75.9, ranked against 59 quarters since September 2011.
The rise was fastest in the year to March 2021 (+1.07), when household formation slowed while the border was closed, and slowest in the year to June 2023 (+0.23), when migration lifted household numbers. It has been above its 2011–2025 average in each of the past five quarters.
The other components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), and the series’ companion node.
- The population inputs are a Tier-1 sovereign statistical release (ABS), and household size comes from ABS projections
- The Z-score of +0.3915σ (Q1 2026) is derived directly from the inputs against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated
- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 59 quarters
- The modelled household count, the change from the level to its change over the year, and the change of measure are disclosed
