21450 – Household Economic Cohort Analysis

Household Economic Cohort Analysis (21450) measures whether living costs are rising faster for households that depend on a government pension or benefit than prices are rising for the population as a whole: the growth over the year in the ABS Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index less the growth over the year in the Consumer Price Index, in percentage points. Higher readings mean pension and benefit households facing faster cost growth than the headline rate shows. Where the four components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400) measure how many people there are, how old they are and how they form households, this node measures the economic position of the cohort most exposed to housing costs. It sits in the 21400 Series but outside the composite, and is certified and published in its own right.

Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z₂₁₄₅₀)

Metric typology: single-series Z-score of the spread between two growth rates.

Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node.

The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline.

At +1.2242σ (Q2 2026), living costs for pension and benefit households rose 4.65% over the year to June 2026, against 3.94% for the CPI: a spread of 0.71 percentage points, above the 2011–2025 average of 0.10. Position. 80.6, ranked against 73 quarters since June 2008.

The spread has been positive in each of the 14 quarters since March 2023. It was widest in that run in September 2024 (+1.08) and read +0.91 in March 2026. Before that, the CPI rose faster for nine consecutive quarters, from December 2020 to December 2022: the spread reached −1.22 in June 2022, when CPI growth was 6.21% against 4.99% for pension and benefit households, and both rates peaked in December 2022 (7.86% and 7.46%). Earlier, the spread was mostly negative from March 2012 to June 2016 (−0.51 in September 2015) and positive from September 2016 to September 2020. Its widest reading on record is +1.34, in March 2011.

The current run is led by housing costs: the index’s Housing group rose 9.03% over the year to June 2026, more than any other group, and its mortgage interest charges 2.92%. The cohort the index describes holds little mortgage debt, so the pressure is in rents, rates and utilities rather than in the cost of credit.

The four components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400). This node is a companion reading and does not enter the composite.