--- title: "21410 – Population Growth & Distribution" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21410-population-growth-distribution/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21410 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified Population Growth & Distribution Z-Score−0.1883σPeriodQ1 2026Position49.4 of 175 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Population Growth & Distribution (21410) measures how fast Australia’s population..." word_count: 816 --- # 21410 – Population Growth & Distribution - APN Codex Node 21410 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified ### Population Growth & Distribution Z-Score−0.1883σPeriodQ1 2026Position49.4 of 175 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Population Growth & Distribution (21410) measures how fast Australia’s population is growing: growth over the year in estimated resident population, in per cent. Higher readings mean faster growth, and more people to house. It is a component of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), at a weight of 0.25. Known limitations **Measure change, October 2026.** Until October 2026 this node read the level of the population. A population level rises almost every quarter, so its position measured the date rather than conditions; the node now reads the rate of growth, and the level is shown as context. Estimated resident population is revised at each Census rebasing, and recent quarters are preliminary. The node reads the national total; growth by state is read in the State & Territory Conditions series (21800). 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21410)** Z-Score Construction Current (Q1 2026)−0.1883σ PtEstimated resident population, Australia, end of quarter t: 27,921,200 at March 2026, 27,528,400 a year earlier μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation of growth over the year, 2011–2025 (1.52% and 0.48 points, 60 quarters) **Metric typology:** single-series Z-score of a growth rate. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Estimated resident population, Australia | ABS National, state and territory population (3101.0), A2133251W | Quarterly | September quarter 1981 to March quarter 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline. Population Growth & Distribution (21410) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to March 2026−0.1883σ · position 49.4, ranked against 175 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe March quarter 2026 reading, −0.1883σ, ranks 49.4 against 175 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.0504σ to +0.6110σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.0964σ in the September quarter 2023, and the lowest −2.9435σ in the March quarter 2021. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 1982 | +0.3197σ | Ranked | | Q4 1982 | +0.0870σ | Ranked | | Q1 1983 | −0.0686σ | Ranked | | Q2 1983 | −0.2888σ | Ranked | | Q3 1983 | −0.4298σ | Ranked | | Q4 1983 | −0.5077σ | Ranked | | Q1 1984 | −0.6432σ | Ranked | | Q2 1984 | −0.6428σ | Ranked | | Q3 1984 | −0.6019σ | Ranked | | Q4 1984 | −0.5516σ | Ranked | | Q1 1985 | −0.4075σ | Ranked | | Q2 1985 | −0.3666σ | Ranked | | Q3 1985 | −0.3449σ | Ranked | | Q4 1985 | −0.1936σ | Ranked | | Q1 1986 | −0.1850σ | Ranked | | Q2 1986 | −0.1250σ | Ranked | | Q3 1986 | −0.0668σ | Ranked | | Q4 1986 | −0.0408σ | Ranked | | Q1 1987 | +0.0032σ | Ranked | | Q2 1987 | +0.0309σ | Ranked | | Q3 1987 | +0.1280σ | Ranked | | Q4 1987 | +0.1395σ | Ranked | | Q1 1988 | +0.2798σ | Ranked | | Q2 1988 | +0.2735σ | Ranked | | Q3 1988 | +0.4554σ | Ranked | | Q4 1988 | +0.5523σ | Ranked | | Q1 1989 | +0.5312σ | Ranked | | Q2 1989 | +0.3923σ | Ranked | | Q3 1989 | +0.0907σ | Ranked | | Q4 1989 | −0.0455σ | Ranked | | Q1 1990 | −0.1587σ | Ranked | | Q2 1990 | −0.0554σ | Ranked | | Q3 1990 | −0.0857σ | Ranked | | Q4 1990 | −0.2932σ | Ranked | | Q1 1991 | −0.3206σ | Ranked | | Q2 1991 | −0.4872σ | Ranked | | Q3 1991 | −0.5092σ | Ranked | | Q4 1991 | −0.6205σ | Ranked | | Q1 1992 | −0.6942σ | Ranked | | Q2 1992 | −0.8123σ | Ranked | | Q3 1992 | −0.9417σ | Ranked | | Q4 1992 | −1.0219σ | Ranked | | Q1 1993 | −1.1460σ | Ranked | | Q2 1993 | −1.2938σ | Ranked | | Q3 1993 | −1.2488σ | Ranked | | Q4 1993 | −1.2336σ | Ranked | | Q1 1994 | −1.2334σ | Ranked | | Q2 1994 | −1.1397σ | Ranked | | Q3 1994 | −1.0878σ | Ranked | | Q4 1994 | −1.1072σ | Ranked | | Q1 1995 | −1.0538σ | Ranked | | Q2 1995 | −0.8248σ | Ranked | | Q3 1995 | −0.7912σ | Ranked | | Q4 1995 | −0.5257σ | Ranked | | Q1 1996 | −0.5538σ | Ranked | | Q2 1996 | −0.6145σ | Ranked | | Q3 1996 | −0.6317σ | Ranked | | Q4 1996 | −0.7381σ | Ranked | | Q1 1997 | −0.7204σ | Ranked | | Q2 1997 | −0.8919σ | Ranked | | Q3 1997 | −1.0213σ | Ranked | | Q4 1997 | −1.1118σ | Ranked | | Q1 1998 | −1.0755σ | Ranked | | Q2 1998 | −1.0692σ | Ranked | | Q3 1998 | −1.0171σ | Ranked | | Q4 1998 | −0.9557σ | Ranked | | Q1 1999 | −0.9352σ | Ranked | | Q2 1999 | −0.8658σ | Ranked | | Q3 1999 | −0.8209σ | Ranked | | Q4 1999 | −0.7791σ | Ranked | | Q1 2000 | −0.7586σ | Ranked | | Q2 2000 | −0.7606σ | Ranked | | Q3 2000 | −0.7478σ | Ranked | | Q4 2000 | −0.7160σ | Ranked | | Q1 2001 | −0.5423σ | Ranked | | Q2 2001 | −0.4675σ | Ranked | | Q3 2001 | −0.5059σ | Ranked | | Q4 2001 | −0.4875σ | Ranked | | Q1 2002 | −0.6868σ | Ranked | | Q2 2002 | −0.7748σ | Ranked | | Q3 2002 | −0.7890σ | Ranked | | Q4 2002 | −0.8056σ | Ranked | | Q1 2003 | −0.7668σ | Ranked | | Q2 2003 | −0.7485σ | Ranked | | Q3 2003 | −0.7657σ | Ranked | | Q4 2003 | −0.8011σ | Ranked | | Q1 2004 | −0.8549σ | Ranked | | Q2 2004 | −0.9178σ | Ranked | | Q3 2004 | −0.8787σ | Ranked | | Q4 2004 | −0.8587σ | Ranked | | Q1 2005 | −0.7236σ | Ranked | | Q2 2005 | −0.6077σ | Ranked | | Q3 2005 | −0.5019σ | Ranked | | Q4 2005 | −0.4007σ | Ranked | | Q1 2006 | −0.3499σ | Ranked | | Q2 2006 | −0.3291σ | Ranked | | Q3 2006 | −0.0989σ | Ranked | | Q4 2006 | +0.0789σ | Ranked | | Q1 2007 | +0.3569σ | Ranked | | Q2 2007 | +0.6712σ | Ranked | | Q3 2007 | +0.7077σ | Ranked | | Q4 2007 | +0.7591σ | Ranked | | Q1 2008 | +0.9123σ | Ranked | | Q2 2008 | +1.0501σ | Ranked | | Q3 2008 | +1.2309σ | Ranked | | Q4 2008 | +1.3863σ | Ranked | | Q1 2009 | +1.2922σ | Ranked | | Q2 2009 | +1.1707σ | Ranked | | Q3 2009 | +0.9492σ | Ranked | | Q4 2009 | +0.6184σ | Ranked | | Q1 2010 | +0.3315σ | Ranked | | Q2 2010 | +0.1040σ | Ranked | | Q3 2010 | −0.1369σ | Ranked | | Q4 2010 | −0.2367σ | Ranked | | Q1 2011 | −0.2705σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | −0.2464σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | −0.0664σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | +0.1233σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | +0.3177σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | +0.5052σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | +0.5603σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | +0.5889σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.5354σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.4520σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.3609σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.1973σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.1212σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −0.0307σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −0.0868σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | −0.0987σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | −0.1403σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −0.1413σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −0.1427σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.1271σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.0226σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | +0.1170σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +0.2636σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | +0.3153σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | +0.3628σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | +0.2961σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.2033σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | +0.0323σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.0137σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.0215σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.0216σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | +0.0948σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.0455σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −0.0612σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | −0.0807σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.0598σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | −0.1678σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | −0.5737σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | −1.5557σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | −2.2513σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | −2.9435σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −2.8539σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −2.5683σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −1.9890σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −1.0453σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −0.4563σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +0.5998σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +1.2494σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +1.6642σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +1.9626σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +2.0964σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.8662σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +1.5387σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +1.0092σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.4688σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.1944σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.0259σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | −0.0407σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | −0.0093σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | −0.1251σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | −0.1883σ | Ranked | Z-Score−0.1883σQ1 2026Position49.4ranked against 175 quartersGrowth over the year1.43%to March 2026Population27.92 millionMarch 2026Highest growth2.53%September 2023Lowest growth0.10%March 2021 5Analytical Interpretation At −0.1883σ (Q1 2026), the population grew 1.43% in the year to March 2026, slightly below its 2011–2025 average of 1.52%. **Position.** 49.4, ranked against 175 quarters since September 1982: close to the middle of the record. Growth fell to 0.10% in the year to March 2021, while the international border was closed, and rose to 2.53% in the year to September 2023 as overseas migration resumed, the fastest since the record began in 1982. It has eased in each of the past two quarters. 6Other Components The other components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), and the series’ companion node. [21420 →Ageing Population & Housing NeedsThe rate of ageing: the change over the year in people aged 65+ per 100 of working age. Q1 2026: −0.1180σ, 75.9 of 175. Weight 0.30.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21420-ageing-population-housing-needs/)[21430 →Household Formation TrendsHouseholds formed over the year. Q1 2026: −0.1217σ, 36.2 of 59. Weight 0.15.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21430-household-formation-trends/)[21440 →Demographic Trend AnalysisThe change over the year in people aged 65+ per 100 households. Q1 2026: +0.3915σ, 75.9 of 59. Weight 0.30.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21440-demographic-trend-analysis/)[21450 →Household Economic Cohort AnalysisPensioner and beneficiary living-cost growth less CPI growth, outside the composite. Q2 2026: +1.2242σ, 80.6 of 73.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21450-household-economic-cohort-analysis/)[Parent index →21400 — Demographic Analysis (APN Aggregate Demographic Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21410 — Population Growth & Distribution — Certified The input is a Tier-1 sovereign statistical release (ABS)- The Z-score of −0.1883σ (Q1 2026) is derived directly from the input against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 175 quarters- The change from the population level to its growth rate, and population revisions, are disclosed **Certified:** 5 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21410 Series21400 StatusCertified Z-Score−0.1883σ Position49.4 of 175 qtrs PeriodQ1 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Baseline μ1.52% Baseline σ0.48 Baseline N60