Price & Affordability Conditions
Price & Affordability Conditions is one of six component branches of the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (24700). It reports dwelling prices, rents and the aggregate value of the residential dwelling stock through three components: Dwelling Prices (24761), Rents (24762) and Asset Base Value (24764).
This is a national time-series index, not a geographic one — only the current reading is shown; there is no locality distribution or map for this node.
| Component | Node | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Dwelling Prices | 24761 | 33.3% |
| Rents | 24762 | 33.3% |
| Asset Base Value | 24764 | 33.3% |
The rental inputs deliberately exclude Victoria — VIC’s rental-bonds table uses an incompatible moving-annual methodology, not point-in-time, and would distort a national median-of-medians. NT and ACT are excluded for a different reason: no public rental-bond dataset exists for either. Rental affordability is not carried here. That measure is reserved at node 24763, unmapped and inactive, pending a rebuild of its denominator; it contributes nothing to this reading.
Each component below carries its own certified reading, ranked against its own recorded history. The large figure is the signed position; the intensity position and ranking basis follow beneath it.
The June quarter 2026 reading, +1.1909σ, has an indicative position of 94.7 and sits above the normal range of −0.9463σ to +0.9463σ. Full component coverage begins in September 2023; earlier quarters are drawn dashed and are not ranked. With twelve ranked quarters the position is indicative, using the branch’s variance correction of 0.7383. The position is the intensity reading.
Show the data
| Quarter | Reading | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2011 | −0.3901σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2011 | −0.6036σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2011 | −2.9634σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2011 | −3.0067σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2012 | −2.8889σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2012 | −2.8219σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2012 | −2.7989σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2012 | −2.6483σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2013 | −2.6313σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2013 | −2.5101σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2013 | −2.3631σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2013 | −2.2345σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2014 | −2.1811σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2014 | −2.1680σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2014 | −2.1498σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2014 | −2.1291σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2015 | −2.0526σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2015 | −1.8541σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2015 | −1.7602σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2015 | −1.8264σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2016 | −1.8786σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2016 | −1.9114σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2016 | −1.8904σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2016 | −1.6275σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2017 | −1.4898σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2017 | −1.4081σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2017 | −1.4701σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2017 | −1.5271σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2018 | −1.6318σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2018 | −1.7516σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2018 | −1.8199σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2018 | −1.9659σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2019 | −2.0908σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2019 | −2.0728σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2019 | −1.8383σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2019 | −1.5180σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2020 | −1.3055σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2020 | −1.2579σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2020 | −1.2681σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2020 | −1.1448σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2021 | −0.8115σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2021 | −0.3949σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2021 | +0.0764σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2021 | +0.3878σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2022 | +0.9095σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2022 | +0.2621σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2022 | −0.6731σ | Partial coverage |
| Q4 2022 | −1.1622σ | Partial coverage |
| Q1 2023 | −1.2913σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2023 | −0.8808σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2023 | −0.8282σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2023 | −0.3726σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2024 | −0.1042σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2024 | +0.0805σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2024 | +0.1208σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2024 | +0.1859σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2025 | +0.2611σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2025 | +0.4405σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2025 | +0.6256σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2025 | +1.0582σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2026 | +1.2953σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2026 | +1.1909σ | Ranked |
Each component is shown at its own latest certified quarter, on one shared scale (−6σ to +6σ) so they can be compared directly.
Show the component readings
| Component | Quarter | Reading | Intensity | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwelling Prices (24761) | June 2026 | +0.2015σ | 58.0 | indicative, 18 quarters |
| Rents (24762) | June 2026 | +1.4958σ | 93.3 | indicative, 12 quarters |
| Asset Base Value (24764) | June 2026 | +1.8754σ | 98.3 | empirical, 60 quarters |
Signed, the branch reads 80.2, the second highest of the six after Demographic Demand Conditions. Asset Base Value (24764) is excluded from the signed index at zero weight on the collinearity disclosed below, so the signed reading rests on Dwelling Prices (24761) at 58.0 and Rents (24762) at 93.3. On intensity the branch reads 94.7, the third highest of the six, with Asset Base Value at 98.3. Dwelling Prices fell from 75.5 in the March quarter as price growth slowed, which lowered both branch readings; Rents and Asset Base Value remain near the top of their own records. The branch's full-coverage history runs to 12 quarters, below the twenty-quarter floor at which empirical ranking begins, so both positions are model-based and marked indicative.
- Indicative position, with a variance adjustment. Below the twenty-quarter floor the position is the standard normal cumulative distribution evaluated at the branch's variance-corrected reading. The adjustment is 0.7383369200, estimated over the anchor window from one component pair reaching the twelve-quarter estimation floor at a correlation of 0.3177121111 across 16 quarters, with the two pairs below that floor imputed at the same value. It sits above the independence bound, so no sanity flag and no clamp apply. Empirical ranking begins automatically at 20 quarters.
- State coverage gap. The rental inputs cover five of eight states/territories (NSW, QLD, SA, WA, TAS) — VIC excluded on methodology-incompatibility grounds, NT/ACT excluded on data-availability grounds. This is a national reading built from five-state coverage, not eight.
- Component collinearity disclosed. Rents (24762) and Asset Base Value (24764) read a correlation above 0.97 over their common history. Equal weight is retained on the intensity reading; Asset Base Value is excluded at zero weight from the signed index, and the signed position therefore carries no diversification adjustment — its single remaining component pair falls below the twelve-quarter estimation floor, so that position understates extremity in both directions.
The other five components of the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (24700). Each is independently certified and enters that index at equal weight.
- Certified as a component branch of the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (signed reading: 80.1969; intensity reading: 94.6623, certified 10 September 2026; recertified 10 October 2026 at the June quarter 2026)
- The reading refers to the quarter ending 30 June 2026. The Rents (24762) baseline window runs to that component's latest quarter: each new quarter re-sets its mean and standard deviation, and so re-standardises every earlier quarter
- All three components independently certified and included at equal weight on the intensity reading; Asset Base Value excluded at zero weight from the signed index
- Ceiling-effect and state-coverage caveats disclosed above, not hidden in a footnote
