Hobart — LGA Conditions Intelligence

Hobart is the first LGA in this series with negative net internal migration in every one of the four years — departure-led, matching this series’ own “Reversing” classification for the first time. The outflow peaked in 2022-23 (−1,567) and has eased since (−953 in 2024-25), but has not turned positive. Arrivals fell then partially recovered (4,309 → 3,498 → 3,784); departures rose then eased (4,961 → 5,065 → 4,737) — a genuine net exodus, not a rounding effect.

ERP growth segmented into four phases. Hobart is the only LGA in this series with a negative current-phase reading — ERP peaked at 55,947 in 2021 and has since fallen to 55,859, a net loss of 88 residents. Every other LGA built in this series is still growing, even the decelerating ones.

Unlike every other LGA in this series, Hobart’s population is shrinking on both fronts at once — migration (−953) and natural increase (−77) both negative in 2024-25, a combined loss of roughly 1,030 residents. Approvals (116) continued regardless, the lowest raw count in this series by a wide margin — consistent with a small, dense, largely built-out capital-city LGA where new supply is mostly infill rather than growth-driven.

The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate. Hobart’s employed share (52.2%) and high-income share (14.9%) are both the highest in this series, and SEIFA decile 9/10 is the most advantaged reading found so far — a small, affluent capital-city LGA, not a distressed one, despite the population decline.

• Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1. Hobart’s population-eligible localities (50,361 residents across 14 localities) produce a population-weighted mean of 48.9 on node 24110. A simple, unweighted average gives 54.1 instead — a 5.2-point gap. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform’s existing LGA-rollup convention.
• Classification badge is indicative. “Reversing” is this series’ own taxonomy label, used for the first time here — every other LGA built so far stayed net-positive on migration even when decelerating (Bundaberg) or accelerating from a low base (Whittlesea). Hobart is the first LGA where the label is genuinely earned, not force-fitted. The platform’s formal 4-way classification query has not been ratified.
• No crime/safety data included in this version. APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached.
• Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage. Given both migration and natural increase have stayed negative since, the population figures have very likely continued to shift.
• Card format approved 19 August 2026; the Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026.