--- title: "Hobart — LGA Conditions Intelligence" url: https://australianproperty.network/lga/tas/hobart/ date: 2026-08-19 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceTasmania Hobart — LGA Conditions Intelligence Reversing (provisional) ERP 2025 55,859 State Tasmania Migration Intensity −1.71% of ERP LGA Code 62810 1Internal Migration Flow Hobart is the..." word_count: 816 --- # Hobart — LGA Conditions Intelligence APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceTasmania ### Hobart — LGA Conditions Intelligence Reversing (provisional) ERP 202555,859 StateTasmania Migration Intensity−1.71% of ERP LGA Code62810 1Internal Migration Flow Hobart is the first LGA in this series with **negative** net internal migration in every one of the four years — departure-led, matching this series' own "Reversing" classification for the first time. The outflow peaked in 2022-23 (−1,567) and has eased since (−953 in 2024-25), but has not turned positive. Arrivals fell then partially recovered (4,309 → 3,498 → 3,784); departures rose then eased (4,961 → 5,065 → 4,737) — a genuine net exodus, not a rounding effect. Internal Migration, FY2021-22 to FY2024-25 Arrivals vs Departures (net is negative throughout — see note below) 2Growth Trajectory ERP growth segmented into four phases. Hobart is the only LGA in this series with a **negative** current-phase reading — ERP peaked at 55,947 in 2021 and has since fallen to 55,859, a net loss of 88 residents. Every other LGA built in this series is still growing, even the decelerating ones. 2001–2009Boom+5.7% 2009–2016Stall+4.2% 2016–2021Recovery+7.6% 2021–2025Current−0.2% 3Key Conditions APN Bedrock™ (LGA, pop.-weighted)48.9National population-weighted mean 46.99 · ~0.09σ above (see disclosure below) Dwelling Approvals, FY2024-25116ABS 8731.0 · data live through May 2026 Natural Increase, FY2024-25−77Births minus deaths · negative in all four years (−16 to −85 to −77) Unlike every other LGA in this series, Hobart's population is shrinking on both fronts at once — migration (−953) and natural increase (−77) both negative in 2024-25, a combined loss of roughly 1,030 residents. Approvals (116) continued regardless, the lowest raw count in this series by a wide margin — consistent with a small, dense, largely built-out capital-city LGA where new supply is mostly infill rather than growth-driven. 4Demographic Profile (2021 Census) Aged 65+18.2% Aged 0–1413.3% Not in Labour Force26.7% Employed52.2% Low Income (<$400/wk)22.1% High Income (>$2,000/wk)14.9% Owned Outright30.4% Renting31.5% Census Unoccupied Dwelling Rate9.8% IRSD / IRSAD Decile9 / 10 The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate. Hobart's employed share (52.2%) and high-income share (14.9%) are both the highest in this series, and SEIFA decile 9/10 is the most advantaged reading found so far — a small, affluent capital-city LGA, not a distressed one, despite the population decline. 5Conditions Statement Hobart is the first genuinely reversing LGA in this series: net internal migration was negative in every one of the four financial years to 2024–25 (peaking at −1,567 in 2022–23, easing to −953 by 2024–25 but never turning positive), and natural increase was negative throughout as well, deepening from −16 to −85 before easing slightly to −77. The combined effect is a population that grew every phase from 2001 through 2021 but has since gone into net decline — the only negative current-phase growth reading (−0.2%) in this series. This is not a distress signal in the conventional sense: Hobart carries the most advantaged demographic profile found so far (SEIFA decile 9/10, 52.2% employed, 14.9% high-income share, all series highs) and a population-weighted APN Bedrock™ reading of 48.9 — the closest to the national population-weighted mean of any LGA in this series. Dwelling approvals (116) are the lowest raw count in the series, consistent with a small, dense, largely built-out capital-city LGA where the story is population movement, not housing distress. 6Methodology & Disclosed Caveats - **Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1.** Hobart's population-eligible localities (50,361 residents across 14 localities) produce a population-weighted mean of **48.9** on node `24110`. A simple, unweighted average gives 54.1 instead — a 5.2-point gap. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform's existing LGA-rollup convention. - **Classification badge is indicative.** "Reversing" is this series' own taxonomy label, used for the first time here — every other LGA built so far stayed net-positive on migration even when decelerating (Bundaberg) or accelerating from a low base (Whittlesea). Hobart is the first LGA where the label is genuinely earned, not force-fitted. The platform's formal 4-way classification query has not been ratified. - **No crime/safety data included in this version.** APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached. - **Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage.** Given both migration and natural increase have stayed negative since, the population figures have very likely continued to shift. - **Card format approved 19 August 2026;** the Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026. 7Sources **Migration & population:** ABS 3218.0 (DS0002/DS0004/DS0006), 2024-25 release · **Dwelling approvals:** ABS 8731.0, LGA small-area data, live through May 2026 · **Census demographic profile:** ABS Census of Population and Housing 2021, TableBuilder Basic · **SEIFA:** ABS SEIFA 2021, released 27 Apr 2023 · **APN Bedrock™:** node 24110, APN Social Capital Index™ — see [node 24110 methodology](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24100/series-24110/).