Bundaberg — LGA Conditions Intelligence
Sustained Inflow, Moderating (provisional)Net internal migration was positive in all four available years, but the pattern is decelerating, not accelerating — net gain fell from +1,400 in 2021-22 to +905 in 2024-25 (down 35%), with arrivals and departures easing off together (arrivals 7,859 → 6,010; departures 6,459 → 5,105) rather than departures falling faster than arrivals. This is a genuinely different shape from Fraser Coast’s pattern in this cohort.
ERP growth segmented into four phases. Growth has been positive throughout but has never returned to the 2001–2009 boom-era pace, and the current phase (+7.2%) is only modestly above the post-GFC stall and recovery phases.
Against 905 net internal arrivals in 2024-25 (≈377 implied new households at 2.4 persons/household) and 918 approvals the same year, supply looks ample against the LGA’s own migration signal — though that signal is itself cooling, so this should be read as a slowing rather than a strengthening market.
The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate and includes holiday homes, dwellings between tenancies, and homes under renovation.
- Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1. Bundaberg’s population-eligible localities (88,652 residents across 58 localities) produce a population-weighted mean of 28.8 on node
24110. A simple, unweighted average gives 34.2 instead. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform’s existing LGA-rollup convention. - Classification badge is indicative. “Sustained Inflow, Moderating” reflects the qualitative pattern here (positive net migration every year, but declining) — this LGA does not cleanly fit the “Structural Absorber” label used elsewhere in this cohort, since departures are not falling faster than arrivals. The platform’s formal 4-way classification query has not been ratified; this badge is not the output of a ratified, repeatable system.
- No crime/safety data included in this version. APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached.
- Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage. Given natural increase has worsened, the age skew has likely deepened since the Census was taken.
- Card format approved 19 August 2026. The Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026; the LGA classification methodology remains unratified, independent of the card format itself.
