--- title: "Bundaberg — LGA Conditions Intelligence" url: https://australianproperty.network/lga/qld/bundaberg/ date: 2026-08-19 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceQueensland Bundaberg — LGA Conditions Intelligence Sustained Inflow, Moderating (provisional) ERP 2025 107,297 State Queensland Migration Intensity 0.84% of ERP LGA Code 31820 1Internal Migration Flow Net..." word_count: 717 --- # Bundaberg — LGA Conditions Intelligence APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceQueensland ### Bundaberg — LGA Conditions Intelligence Sustained Inflow, Moderating (provisional) ERP 2025107,297 StateQueensland Migration Intensity0.84% of ERP LGA Code31820 1Internal Migration Flow Net internal migration was positive in all four available years, but the pattern is **decelerating**, not accelerating — net gain fell from +1,400 in 2021-22 to +905 in 2024-25 (down 35%), with arrivals and departures easing off together (arrivals 7,859 → 6,010; departures 6,459 → 5,105) rather than departures falling faster than arrivals. This is a genuinely different shape from Fraser Coast's pattern in this cohort. Internal Migration, FY2021-22 to FY2024-25 Departures + Net Internal Migration = Total Arrivals 2Growth Trajectory ERP growth segmented into four phases. Growth has been positive throughout but has never returned to the 2001–2009 boom-era pace, and the current phase (+7.2%) is only modestly above the post-GFC stall and recovery phases. 2001–2009Boom+16.7% 2009–2016Stall+4.3% 2016–2021Recovery+6.2% 2021–2025Current+7.2% 3Key Conditions APN Bedrock™ (LGA, pop.-weighted)28.8National population-weighted mean 46.99 · ~0.89σ below (see disclosure below) Dwelling Approvals, FY2024-25918ABS 8731.0 · data live through May 2026 Natural Increase, FY2024-25−153Births minus deaths · worsening each year since FY2021-22 (−29) Against 905 net internal arrivals in 2024-25 (≈377 implied new households at 2.4 persons/household) and 918 approvals the same year, supply looks ample against the LGA's own migration signal — though that signal is itself cooling, so this should be read as a slowing rather than a strengthening market. 4Demographic Profile (2021 Census) Aged 65+26.0% Aged 0–1416.4% Not in Labour Force35.9% Employed39.1% Low Income (<$400/wk)28.7% High Income (>$2,000/wk)5.6% Owned Outright35.5% Renting23.4% Census Unoccupied Dwelling Rate9.8% IRSD / IRSAD Decile2 / 2 The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate and includes holiday homes, dwellings between tenancies, and homes under renovation. 5Conditions Statement Bundaberg recorded positive net internal migration in every one of the four financial years to 2024–25, but the pattern is decelerating rather than accelerating: net migration fell from +1,400 in 2021–22 to +905 in 2024–25, a 35% decline, driven by arrivals and departures easing off together rather than departures falling faster than arrivals. Natural increase, modestly negative throughout, has worsened from −29 to −153. The population absorbing this slowing inflow is older and lower-income: 26.0% aged 65 or older, 35.9% outside the labour force, 28.7% on incomes below $400 per week. The LGA's population-weighted APN Bedrock™ reading of 28.8 sits roughly 0.89 standard deviations below the national population-weighted mean. Against 918 dwelling approvals in 2024–25 and migration-implied demand for roughly 377 new households, supply appears ample on the numbers — though the underlying inflow signal is itself cooling, which should temper how that "ample supply" reading is used. 6Methodology & Disclosed Caveats - **Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1.** Bundaberg's population-eligible localities (88,652 residents across 58 localities) produce a population-weighted mean of **28.8** on node `24110`. A simple, unweighted average gives 34.2 instead. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform's existing LGA-rollup convention. - **Classification badge is indicative.** "Sustained Inflow, Moderating" reflects the qualitative pattern here (positive net migration every year, but declining) — this LGA does not cleanly fit the "Structural Absorber" label used elsewhere in this cohort, since departures are not falling faster than arrivals. The platform's formal 4-way classification query has not been ratified; this badge is not the output of a ratified, repeatable system. - **No crime/safety data included in this version.** APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached. - **Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage.** Given natural increase has worsened, the age skew has likely deepened since the Census was taken. - **Card format approved 19 August 2026.** The Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026; the LGA classification methodology remains unratified, independent of the card format itself. 7Sources **Migration & population:** ABS 3218.0 (DS0002/DS0004/DS0006), 2024-25 release · **Dwelling approvals:** ABS 8731.0, LGA small-area data, live through May 2026 · **Census demographic profile:** ABS Census of Population and Housing 2021, TableBuilder Basic · **SEIFA:** ABS SEIFA 2021, released 27 Apr 2023 · **APN Bedrock™:** node 24110, APN Social Capital Index™ — see [node 24110 methodology](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24100/series-24110/).