24761 – Dwelling Prices

Dwelling Prices measures how fast Australian home prices are changing, using two independent measures of the same question: one from market listings and transactions, one adjusted for inflation.

The node is a component of Price & Affordability Conditions (24760), which in turn sits within the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (24700). It is a national time series, not a geographic one — there is no locality distribution or map at this node.

It measures the rate of change, not the price level. A high reading indicates prices rising quickly relative to the historical record, not that prices are high in absolute terms.

The second input was derived for this build as a four-quarter change adjusted to real terms, so that the node carries both a nominal market measure and an inflation-adjusted one rather than a single view of price movement.

Each input is expressed against its own comparison window. The gap between the two figures is largely the effect of inflation: nominal price growth of 5.8 per cent sits beside real growth of 4.2 per cent. The two come from different publishers, so the gap is not an exact measure of inflation.

Both measures slowed over the quarter. In the year to March 2026 the home price index had risen 9.4 per cent and real dwelling prices 6.0 per cent.

Both measures sit a little above their own averages, and the composite of +0.20 places the June 2026 quarter close to the middle of this node's record, at a position of 58.0. A quarter earlier the composite read +0.69 and the position 75.5: price growth has slowed on both measures.

The real measure now reads higher than the nominal one, at +0.28 against +0.12. The nominal measure is scored against a short window that begins in 2022, in which price growth averaged 5.2 per cent a year, so growth of 5.8 per cent is close to ordinary for it. The real measure is scored against 2011 to 2025, in which real growth averaged 2.3 per cent a year.

That distinction matters for reading the node. Price growth is above average on both measures, but only modestly, and the two are judged against different periods. The home price index has continued to slow since the quarter ended, reading 0.1 per cent for the year to September 2026.

• One input carries a short-history qualification. The home price index measure holds sixteen observations against a comparison window beginning in 2022. Its standardised position rests on a short record and should be read as provisional.
• The reading quarter follows the slower input. The real dwelling price measure is published about a quarter after the home price index, so the node reads the latest quarter in which both are present: June 2026, the same quarter as its sibling nodes.
• The position is model-based, not ranked. Only eighteen quarters carry both inputs together, below the twenty-quarter floor at which empirical ranking begins. The position above is therefore derived from the node's standardised reading against a normal distribution, rendered on the same scale as a ranked position so the two can be read alongside one another. It graduates to an empirical ranking automatically at twenty quarters, which on current reporting is two quarters away, at the December quarter 2026.
• The two inputs are not independent. Both describe Australian dwelling price movement over a twelve-month period; they differ in source and in inflation treatment, not in subject. They confirm each other rather than adding separate evidence.
• The derived input's comparison window is ratified as part of this node's certification.
• No diversification adjustment. The model-based position divides the node's standardised reading by the spread its own inputs jointly imply. That spread estimated above its theoretical maximum, so it is held at the neutral value, and the position consequently understates extremity in both directions.
• Signed direction. Rising prices read differently for a buyer entering the market and for an existing holder. The index resolves that by addressing prospective investment, on which frame rising dwelling prices are a supportive condition, so this component enters as it reads. Its signed and intensity positions therefore coincide at 58.0.
• Comparison basis. Positions use the full-coverage window, the eighteen quarters in which both inputs are present. The all-rows basis, which ranked against quarters missing an input, is retired across the 24700 series.
• Restated source. The publisher of the real dwelling price series restated its history in 2026. Readings on this page use the restated series; the March quarter 2026 reading is +0.69 on it.

The other components of Price & Affordability Conditions (24760). Each is independently certified.