Under the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ medium projection, the number of Australians aged 65 and over rises from 4.43 million in 2022 to 7.42 million by 2046, and the number aged 85 and over from 0.55 million to 1.43 million, 2.6 times as many. People aged 65 and over per 100 aged 15 to 64 rise from 26.4 to 35.0. Every projection series shows the same direction; they differ on how far.
The node reading compares the September 2025 ratio of people aged 65 and over to those aged 15 to 64 with its average since 2011. No reading is published for the projections.
What the projections are
These figures come from the ABS’s 2022-based population projections, which start from the estimated population at 30 June 2022 and run to 2071. Each series combines assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and net overseas migration: Series A assumes high fertility, high life expectancy and high migration; Series B the medium assumption for all three; Series C low fertility, medium life expectancy and low migration. They show what would happen if those assumptions held. They are not forecasts, and how the last two editions compared with what actually happened is a reminder that population can move outside the whole range. This piece reports the next two decades, to 2046.
People aged 65 and over
The number of people aged 65 and over rises from 4.43 million in 2022 to between 7.29 million (Series C) and 7.86 million (Series A) by 2046, with 7.42 million under Series B, 67% more. Their share of the population rises from 17.0% to 21.9% under Series B. The series differ less on this group than on the population as a whole: everyone who will be 65 or over in 2046 had already been born by 2022.
Projected population aged 65 and over, 2022 to 2046
Millions of people at 30 June. Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.
People aged 85 and over
The oldest group grows faster. People aged 85 and over number 547,176 in 2022 and 1,431,319 in 2046 under Series B, 2.6 times as many, rising from 2.1% of the population to 4.2%. Most of the increase comes after 2031, the year the first of the post-war baby boom, born in 1946, turn 85: the group grows by 249,522 between 2022 and 2031 and by 634,621 between 2031 and 2046. Series A, with its higher life expectancy, reaches 1.62 million.
Projected population aged 85 and over, 2022 to 2046
Millions of people at 30 June. Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.
| June | Aged 65 and over | Share of population | Aged 85 and over | Share of population | 65+ per 100 aged 15–64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4,433,211 | 17.0% | 547,176 | 2.1% | 26.4 |
| 2026 | 5,079,135 | 18.3% | 629,759 | 2.3% | 28.4 |
| 2031 | 5,840,730 | 19.7% | 796,698 | 2.7% | 30.9 |
| 2036 | 6,496,689 | 20.8% | 1,047,061 | 3.4% | 33.0 |
| 2041 | 7,020,419 | 21.5% | 1,236,995 | 3.8% | 34.3 |
| 2046 | 7,422,803 | 21.9% | 1,431,319 | 4.2% | 35.0 |
Series B (medium fertility, medium life expectancy, medium net overseas migration). 2022 is the base year, the estimated population at 30 June 2022. Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.
The dependency ratio
People aged 65 and over per 100 aged 15 to 64 rise from 26.4 in 2022 to 35.0 in 2046 under Series B. The ratio rises most quickly through the late 2020s and 2030s and more slowly in the 2040s, adding 0.7 in the five years to 2046, before the pace picks up again after 2046. It is highest under Series C, at 36.4 in 2046, because lower migration means fewer people of working age, even though Series C has the fewest older people. It is a ratio of ages, not of workers to retirees; the trend since 2011 is covered in Fewer Working-Age People per Older Australian.
Projected people aged 65 and over per 100 aged 15 to 64, 2022 to 2071
Ratio at 30 June. Source: ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.
The ratio actually recorded is running below every series. At March 2026 it was 27.24, against 28.3 to 28.6 projected for June 2026. The quarters differ slightly, but the gap has two sources: there were fewer people aged 65 and over than any series projected, and more people of working age, consistent with the high net overseas migration of 2022–23 and 2023–24.
What this does not show
These are projections under stated assumptions; they are not forecasts and carry no probability. They count people by age and say nothing about health, income, work or where older people will live, and no statement about housing demand is made here. The age structure behind the projections is shown in The Age Pyramid, 2011 to 2026, and the Demographic Analysis series carries the node readings.
Findings are presented on the basis of data and evidence alone.
