Prices, Homes, Migration and Rents: The Senate Housing Inquiry’s Figures Tested
Locked Out: Three Positions from the Senate Inquiry into Intergenerational Housing Inequity (O-261001-152245-MEDIUM)
Migration Trends (21250) +1.0390σ Q1 2026 · position 86.7, ranked against 61 quarters
Housing Policy (Affordable, Social) (21330) −1.2971σ 30 June 2025 · position 9.7, indicative position, empirical ranking begins at 20 observations (currently 14)
Rental Market Analysis (21190) +1.4958σ Q2 2026 · position 93.3, indicative position, empirical ranking begins at 20 quarters (currently 12)
Scope and Purpose
The Senate Select Committee on Intergenerational Housing Inequity tabled its final report, Locked out: the growing generational housing divide, in September 2026. The committee set out shared findings but could not agree on recommendations, and the Chair, the Labor senators and the Coalition senators each set out their own case. The three positions are carried side by side in the companion Submissions, Inquiries & Testimony output, Locked Out: Three Positions from the Senate Inquiry into Intergenerational Housing Inequity. This output takes the eight figures from the report and the comments that can be checked against published series, drawn from all three positions, and puts each against its primary source and against Australian Property Network’s (APN’s) certified readings. The short answer is that six hold, one holds in direction but not in size, and one depends on which rents are measured.
Proposition One: House Prices Have Risen 400% Since 1999
The committee’s first finding cites a 400% increase in house prices since 1999, a figure the Chair attributes to the government’s own Budget papers. On the Bank for International Settlements’ residential property price index for Australia, prices rose 483% from the March quarter 1999 to the March quarter 2026. After inflation, the rise was 170%. The claim holds, and in nominal terms understates the rise.
House Prices and Wages, Index, March Quarter 1999 = 100
Sources: Bank for International Settlements, residential property prices for Australia, nominal (gold); ABS Wage Price Index, total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses, all sectors (slate). Both rebased to the March quarter 1999.
Proposition Two: Housing Costs Have Grown Far Faster Than Incomes
The Labor senators state that the cost of housing has grown far faster than household incomes. Over the same period, the Wage Price Index rose 129%. House prices multiplied by 5.8 and wages by 2.3. The claim holds: since 1999 prices have risen more than five-fold and wages a little over two-fold. The Wage Price Index measures rates of pay rather than household income, which also reflects hours worked and the number of earners in a household.
Proposition Three: Homes Have Grown Faster Than the Population Over the Past Decade
The Chair, citing evidence to the committee, states that the number of homes rose by 19% over the past decade while the population rose by 16%. On ABS figures, the number of residential dwellings rose 18.1% from the March quarter 2016 to the March quarter 2026, and the resident population 15.8% (ABS). The claim holds. A national count does not show whether the additional homes are where the additional people live, or of the size and price they need, which is the Chair’s wider point.
Proposition Four: About 170,000 Homes a Year, 30,000 Fewer Than Under the Previous Government
The Coalition senators state that Australia is building about 170,000 dwellings a year, 30,000 fewer than under the previous government. In the year to the March quarter 2026, 173,523 dwellings were completed (ABS Building Activity). Over the 34 full quarters of the previous government, from December 2013 to March 2022, completions averaged 195,859 a year, and over the 15 quarters since September 2022 they have averaged 176,087. The first part holds. The gap is about 20,000 a year against the previous government’s average, rather than 30,000; it exceeds 30,000 only against the peak years of 2016–17 to 2018–19. Homes completed in any year were mostly approved and started one to three years earlier.
Dwellings Completed, Australia, by Financial Year
Source: ABS Building Activity, Australia, Table 38, dwelling units completed, total sectors, the eight states and territories summed. Financial years to June; the last bar, in slate, is the year to the March quarter 2026.
Dwellings Completed by State and Territory, Annual
| Jurisdiction | Average a year, Dec 2013 to Mar 2022 | Year to Mar 2026 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 56,413 | 44,804 | -11,609 |
| Victoria | 61,534 | 54,599 | -6,935 |
| Queensland | 38,054 | 33,060 | -4,994 |
| South Australia | 10,458 | 14,051 | +3,593 |
| Western Australia | 21,007 | 19,963 | -1,044 |
| Tasmania | 2,654 | 2,285 | -369 |
| Northern Territory | 1,241 | 601 | -640 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 4,497 | 4,160 | -337 |
| Australia | 195,858 | 173,523 | -22,335 |
Source: ABS Building Activity, Australia, Table 38, dwelling units completed, total sectors. The first column is the average annual rate over the 34 full quarters from December 2013 to March 2022.
The shortfall is concentrated in the three largest states. New South Wales completed about 11,600 fewer homes in the year to March 2026 than its average under the previous government, Victoria about 6,900 fewer and Queensland about 5,000 fewer. South Australia completed about 3,600 more.
Proposition Five: Net Overseas Migration Has Run Well Above Its Earlier Average
The Coalition senators state that net overseas migration exceeded 292,000 in the year to March 2026, and has averaged over 390,000 a year under the current government against 176,000 under the previous one. On ABS figures, it was 292.1 thousand in the year to the March quarter 2026, and averaged 403.5 thousand a year from September 2022 against 177.0 thousand from December 2013 to March 2022. The claim holds. The earlier average includes the closure of the international border, when net migration was negative, and the later one the reopening that followed: on the financial years 2014–15 to 2018–19 alone, the earlier average was about 227,000. Migration Trends (21250) reads +1.0390σ for the March quarter, position 86.7 against 61 quarters.
Net Overseas Migration, Australia, by Financial Year
Source: ABS National, state and territory population, net overseas migration, thousands. Financial years to June; the last bar, in slate, is the year to the March quarter 2026. Values are in thousands; 2020–21 reflects the closure of the international border.
Proposition Six: Rents Have Risen Far Faster Than Wages
The Chair states that rents rose 43.9% over the five years to September 2025, against 17.5% for wages, and the committee’s first finding describes rents outpacing wages “by several multiples”. The wage figure matches: the Wage Price Index rose 17.4% over those five years (ABS). The Consumer Price Index measure of rents, which covers rents paid across all existing tenancies, rose 23.1% (ABS). The 43.9% figure comes from a measure of advertised rents for new leases, which move faster. Rents have outpaced wages on either measure, by about 1.3 times on rents paid and 2.5 times on advertised rents; “several multiples” does not hold on either. Rental Market Analysis (21190), built from new bond lodgements, reads +1.4958σ for the June quarter, the highest of its 12 full-coverage quarters.
Rents and Wages, Index, September Quarter 2020 = 100
Sources: ABS Consumer Price Index, rents, Australia, quarterly (gold); ABS Wage Price Index (slate). Both rebased to the September quarter 2020. The CPI measures rents paid across all private and public tenancies, not newly advertised rents.
Proposition Seven: Social Housing Is at a Record Low Share of the Stock
The Chair, citing a submission, states that public and community housing has fallen to a record low of about 3.7% of the housing stock. On APN’s measure, social housing dwellings of all programs as a share of all residential dwellings, the share was 3.98% at 30 June 2025, the lowest of the 14 years since 2012 and lower in every year than the year before (AIHW). The number of social housing dwellings rose over the period, from 426,488 to 451,799, but more slowly than the stock as a whole. The claim holds in direction; the level depends on what is counted and against which total. Housing Policy (Affordable, Social) (21330) reads −1.2971σ at 30 June 2025.
Social Housing as a Share of All Residential Dwellings, at 30 June
Sources: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, social housing dwellings, all programs; ABS, number of residential dwellings. The number of social housing dwellings rose from 426,488 in 2012 to 451,799 in 2025.
Proposition Eight: The Total Value of Dwellings Fell in the June Quarter
The Coalition senators state that the total value of Australia’s residential dwellings fell by $34.1 billion, or 0.3%, the first fall since the September quarter 2022. On ABS figures, the total fell from $12,723.0 billion in the March quarter 2026 to $12,688.9 billion in the June quarter, and the previous fall was in the September quarter 2022 (ABS). The claim holds.
Not Tested
All three positions cite the Australian National Audit Office’s count of 1,432 completed Future Fund homes; APN holds no series of Future Fund delivery, and the figure is recorded as the audit’s. The estimate that the tax changes reduce supply by 35,000 dwellings over a decade is a Budget projection, and the modelled price effects of 3 to 5% are forecasts; APN does not test forecasts. The number of households with an unmet need for social housing, the share of households in mortgage stress, the cost added by the construction code, the take-up of the 5% Deposit Scheme and the increase in rent assistance rest on sources APN does not hold, and are recorded as NIL RETURN.
APN Analytical Synthesis
Of the eight figures tested, six hold: prices have risen more than 400% since 1999, far faster than wages; dwellings have grown slightly faster than the population over the past decade; net overseas migration is as stated; social housing has fallen to its lowest share of the stock in the series; and the value of the dwelling stock fell in the June quarter. The completions gap is about 20,000 a year rather than 30,000, and the rent comparison depends on whether advertised or existing rents are measured. Migration Trends (21250) reads +1.0390σ and Rental Market Analysis (21190) +1.4958σ, while Housing Policy (Affordable, Social) (21330) reads −1.2971σ. The data support each position’s central figures more than any position’s complete account: over a decade the dwelling stock has kept slightly ahead of population, while in the past four years completions have run below their earlier average as migration rose; prices have outrun wages over a generation; and the social housing share has fallen every year.
The next data will test the argument: the June quarter 2026 building activity and population releases in December, the 2026 Census counts of renting households, and the first quarters in which the tax changes take effect. This synthesis speaks only to the structural conditions the cited data can independently support; it does not constitute a view on future property values, migration or government policy, and no such view is expressed or implied.
Disclaimer
The analysis and information contained in this publication are for general informational and strategic purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, or any other form of professional advice. Australian Property Network is not a licensed financial advisor. Property values and market conditions can go up or down. Before making any property or investment decisions, you must conduct your own thorough research and seek independent professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances.
