Rental Market Analysis
Rental Market Analysis (21190) tracks the national bond-count-weighted median rent, a single national figure built from state-level rental bond lodgement data across New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania.
Primary metric: National Bond-Count-Weighted Median Rent, Z-Score
Metric typology: single-vector Z-score index, sole driver of the node reading. A state-level breakdown exists as a separate, informational-only reference and is not blended into this Z-score, to avoid double-counting the same underlying data at finer grain.
Baseline. The baseline runs from the third quarter of 2023, the earliest period for which state-level bond-count data is available on a composition-consistent basis across all five contributing states, giving N=12 rather than a longer window.
State rental bond authorities (NSW, QLD, SA, WA, TAS), quarterly, N=12 (Q3 2023 – Q2 2026). No commercial data dependency exists in the node.
At +1.4958σ (Q2 2026), national median rent is running well above its baseline mean. Position. Indicative 93.3: empirical ranking begins at 20 quarters and this record holds 12, so the position is model-based, read from the Z-score. The reading has risen in every one of the twelve quarters, from −1.7227σ at the start of the window to +1.4958σ.
Rent growth. Median rent rose 1.0% to $695.83 in the June quarter 2026, after 1.8% in the March quarter, the smallest quarterly rise since the September quarter 2025.
Baseline. The baseline holds twelve quarters, Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, and includes the current quarter. It is shorter than the standard window and its end moves forward with each new quarter, so the mean, the standard deviation and every Z-score on this page are recalculated when a quarter is added.
The gold line is the node’s reading in each quarter, September 2023 to June 2026. The grey dashed line marks 0σ, the baseline mean. The reading rose in every quarter, from −1.7227σ in the September quarter 2023. The June quarter 2026 reading, +1.4958σ, is the highest in the record. Because the baseline covers this same window, the line averages zero across it.
Each bar is a state’s median weekly rent Z-score for the June quarter 2026, against that state’s own Q3 2023 to Q2 2026 baseline: New South Wales +1.3462σ ($754.79), Queensland +1.6496σ ($655.08), South Australia +1.5246σ ($565.48), Western Australia +1.5124σ ($714.94) and Tasmania +1.9920σ ($532.94). State readings are informational and are not blended into the node reading.
The other two components of Property Prices & Market Reports (21100).
Rental Market Analysis (21190) holds Active status. The certified Z-score is +1.4958σ (Q2 2026, N=12), with an indicative model-based position of 93.3, constructed from state rental bond authority data across five states. The baseline is a twelve-quarter window that includes the certified quarter and moves forward with each new quarter; that window and the short observation record are disclosed features of the construction.
