21250 – Migration Trends

Node 21250 measures Net Overseas Migration (NOM) as an input to the 21200 Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) composite, carrying a weight of 0.10 within that nine-input composite. It is the only node in the 21200 family built from a single certified series rather than a multi-vector composite — its measurement is direct rather than aggregated across several inputs.

Migration Trends (21250) does not measure internal or domestic migration between Australian states or regions. Nor does it measure population growth broadly — that is the domain of Population Growth & Distribution (21410) within the separate 21400 Demographic Analysis series. Migration Trends (21250) measures net overseas migration specifically, as reported through Tier-1 institutional statistical collections.

Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z₂₁₂₅₀)

Metric typology: Continuous single-series node, certified under the APN institutional data architecture.

A population standard deviation (σ) is not published at the node level here. The underlying Net Overseas Migration series itself carries certified population parameters (see Section 3); the node’s own certified output is a Z-score computed from that series rather than a separately stored composite σ. Where this would otherwise appear, it is a disclosed NIL RETURN rather than an invented figure.

The node draws on a single certified series — Net Overseas Migration (NOM) — sourced from Tier-1 institutional collections (Australian Bureau of Statistics).

Underlying series statistics, 2011–2025 baseline:

The current certified reading is +1.0390σ for the March quarter 2026, certified on 17 September 2026 with the single input series present at full weighting.

The chart below shows the node’s reading for every quarter from March 2011. The single input series is present in every quarter, so the whole record is directly comparable.

The certified reading of +1.0390σ (Q1 2026) places Net Overseas Migration one standard deviation above its 2011–2025 average. Position. 86.7, ranked against 61 quarters from March 2011 to March 2026, which places the reading in the upper sixth of that record. The input is not seasonally adjusted: net overseas migration runs highest in the March quarter each year, so each reading is best compared with the same quarter of earlier years. Against that comparison, +1.0390σ is the lowest March-quarter reading since 2021.

The record falls into four phases. From March 2011 to March 2020 the reading stayed within ±0.76σ of the average. From June 2020 to December 2021, the period of Australia’s international border closures, it ranged from −0.6311σ to −2.6169σ. From March 2022 to March 2024 it ranged from +0.4535σ to +2.6812σ. From June 2024 it has ranged from −0.3129σ to +1.2096σ, closer to the average, with the highest readings of that phase in the March quarters.

As a single-series node, Migration Trends (21250) carries no internal weighting: its certified Z-score is a direct read of Net Overseas Migration against its 2011–2025 baseline.

The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200).