21230 – Employment & GDP

Employment & GDP (21230) measures the strength of the labour market and of output growth as they bear on Australian residential property: how scarce labour is, and how fast output per person is growing. Higher readings mean a stronger labour market and faster growth. It carries a weighting of 0.15 in the Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200).

It heads a family of nodes. The employment nodes (21231–21234) read the labour market; the GDP and productivity nodes (21235–21239) read output, productivity and investment. The node itself is the equal-weighted mean of one node from each side, Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235), so that labour and output carry equal weight however many nodes the family holds. The other family nodes are read in their own right and do not compose into 21230.

Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z₂₁₂₃₀)

Metric typology: equal-weighted composite of two component nodes, each standardised against 2011–2025 baselines. Both components read rates rather than levels: the level of GDP and the number of jobs rise with the size of the economy, so a standardised level would largely measure the passage of time. The two components are distinct signals: over 2011–2025 their readings correlate at 0.28.

The nine nodes of the Employment & GDP family. Labour Market Tightness and Growth per Person compose into 21230 at half weight each. The other nodes are read in their own right.

The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter. A quarter is ranked only when both components are present and each has all of its own inputs.

At +0.2476σ (Q2 2026), labour market and output conditions are a little stronger than their 2011–2025 average. Position. 84.4, ranked against 123 quarters since September 1994; the reading is the lowest since September 2025, after +0.4443σ in December 2025 and +0.4017σ in March 2026.

The two components point in different directions. The labour market remains tighter than average (+0.5983σ), although it has eased since its June 2022 peak and is at its loosest since March 2021. Output per person is growing slightly below average (+0.68% over the year, −0.1030σ); total output grew 2.14%, so most growth reflects a larger population. The highest reading on record, +2.5962σ in June 2021, and the lowest, −2.8837σ in June 2020, both fall in the pandemic years.

Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). Employment & GDP carries a weighting of 0.15 among the nine components of the AMVI, which reads +0.8481σ for the March quarter 2026. Higher readings of 21230 add to the AMVI, as higher interest rates and inflation do: each signals a hotter economy.

The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200).

Employment & GDP (21230) holds Active status. Its composite Z-score of +0.2476σ (Q2 2026) is certified from its two component nodes, each certified from Tier-1 ABS releases, and is ranked against the 123 quarters in which both components have full coverage. Certified 4 October 2026.