Credit Velocity
Node 21270 measures the velocity of new credit origination — how quickly new loan commitments are being written — as a contributing input to the 21200 AMVI composite, carrying a weight of 0.15, the second-highest weight of the nine AMVI inputs after Interest Rates’ 0.20.
Credit Velocity (21270) measures the flow and pace of credit origination, not the cost of that credit — that is the domain of Interest Rates (21210) — and not default or repayment risk on credit already extended, which Business Insolvency (21280) reads only indirectly, through companies entering external administration.
Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21270)
Baseline length. The inputs’ baselines each hold 23 quarters, from the September quarter 2019 to the December quarter 2025, shorter than the standard 2011–2025 window used across most of the 21200 series.
Credit Velocity (21270) measures the pace at which new credit is originated. Interest Rates (21210) measures what that credit costs. Business Insolvency (21280) measures companies entering external administration. The three nodes are architecturally distinct with zero analytical redundancy between them.
Two inputs are drawn from Tier-1 institutional sources: the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Lending Indicators, ABS 5601) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (Quarterly ADI Property Exposures).
| Input | Source | Weight | Q2 2026 Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| New lending commitments | Owner-occupier and investor dwelling finance, seasonally adjusted; ABS 5601, Lending Indicators | 0.500 | Present |
| High-DTI and high-LVR lending share | Share of new loans funded at a debt-to-income ratio of 6 or more, plus the share at a loan-to-value ratio of 80 per cent or more; APRA, Quarterly ADI Property Exposures | 0.500 | Present |
The current certified reading is +0.1132σ for the June quarter 2026, certified on 2 October 2026 with both inputs present. The chart below shows the node’s reading for every quarter from September 2019.
New lending commitments are read from the ABS’s published total for all lenders. They were previously the sum of the ABS’s figures by lender type, which were not published for the September and December quarters of 2024 and the March quarter of 2025. Seasonally adjusted figures by lender type do not add exactly to the published total, so every quarter of the node’s history is restated on the new basis, and the three quarters that were missing are now filled. Readings on this page differ from those published before 2 October 2026.
This node previously carried a third input, a lending spread and serviceability measure. Its lending-rate component was not drawn from a published source: it was constructed as the cash rate plus a spread that declined by a fixed amount each quarter. A measure built that way cannot be reproduced from any institutional release, so the input was removed on 20 September 2026 and the node recomposed on its two published-source inputs at equal weight.
Every quarter of the node’s history is restated on that basis, so readings on this page differ from those published before that date. The removed input also stopped at the December quarter 2025, which is why the node now reports a later quarter than it did.
The June quarter 2026 reading, +0.1132σ, ranks 63.0 against 28 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.6821σ to +1.0120σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.1443σ in the December quarter 2021, and the lowest −0.8530σ in the March quarter 2023.
Show the data
| Quarter | Reading | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2019 | −0.5735σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2019 | −0.3197σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2020 | −0.3304σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2020 | −0.6289σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2020 | −0.1238σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2020 | +0.3073σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2021 | +0.7670σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2021 | +0.9957σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2021 | +1.0578σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2021 | +1.1443σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2022 | +1.0499σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2022 | +0.6788σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2022 | +0.0655σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2022 | −0.5009σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2023 | −0.8530σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2023 | −0.8062σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2023 | −0.8293σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2023 | −0.5368σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2024 | −0.5458σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2024 | −0.2212σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2024 | −0.1542σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2024 | −0.1650σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2025 | −0.2255σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2025 | −0.0540σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2025 | +0.2194σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2025 | +0.5825σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2026 | +0.3731σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2026 | +0.1132σ | Ranked |
No population mean or standard deviation is published for the composite itself; each input is standardised against its own baseline. Where a figure is not certified, this page states NIL RETURN rather than estimating one.
The certified reading of +0.1132σ (Q2 2026) indicates new credit origination running close to its historical average pace, with both inputs present. Position. 63.0, ranked against the 28 full-coverage quarters from September 2019 to June 2026: seventeen of the twenty-seven comparable quarters sit below this reading.
The two inputs pull in opposite directions. New lending commitments read +1.3237σ, well above average, while the share of new lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios reads −1.0972σ, well below it. Both readings are lower than in the March quarter: the value of new commitments eased, and the higher-risk share fell further. The composite sits between them, which is what an equal-weighted mean of two opposing signals produces.
The gold bars are the two inputs’ Z-scores in the June quarter 2026: new lending commitments +1.3237σ and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios −1.0972σ. The slate bar is the node composite, +0.1132σ, the equal-weighted mean of the two. The grey vertical line marks 0σ, each input’s baseline average.
Each input’s baseline holds 26 quarters, from the September quarter 2019, shorter than the standard 2011–2025 window used across most of the 21200 series, so the baseline parameters can move as quarters accumulate.
The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200).
- Built from Tier-1 institutional sources: the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Lending Indicators, ABS 5601) and APRA (Quarterly ADI Property Exposures). Both inputs are reproducible from their published releases
- The composite is constructed from certified underlying series rather than published as a standalone raw indicator
- The Q2 2026 composite of +0.1132σ draws on both of the node’s inputs and ranks 63.0 against 28 full-coverage quarters
- Each input’s baseline holds 26 quarters, shorter than the standard baseline window; this is disclosed rather than smoothed over
- No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node
