The Overseas Offset: Domestic Migration Losses Across Australia’s 40 Most Populous LGAs
Eighteen of the 40 most populous LGAs recorded negative net internal migration in 2024–25 — more residents left for elsewhere in Australia than arrived from it. In every one of those eighteen, net overseas migration was large enough to turn the headline population figure positive anyway. Brisbane lost 7,203 residents to internal migration and gained 23,684 from overseas — a net swing that reads as steady 1.6 per cent growth without disclosing which of those two numbers is doing the work. This analysis separates the two migration components across the full processed set and finds that the LGAs relying on overseas arrivals to offset a domestic outflow grow, on average, at little more than half the rate of LGAs still gaining internal migrants outright.
The Full Set, Ranked by Net Internal Migration
The table below covers all 40 most populous LGAs, ranked from the largest net internal migration loss to the largest net internal migration gain. Natural increase and net overseas migration are shown alongside so the composition of each LGA’s growth — not just its headline population change — is visible in full.
The Exporters
Brisbane, Parramatta, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland and Sydney show the five largest net internal migration losses in the sample analysed, ranging from −3,965 (Sydney) to −7,203 (Brisbane). In every case, overseas migration more than covers the loss: Brisbane’s overseas inflow is 3.3 times its internal outflow; Sydney’s is 1.8 times; Cumberland’s, Parramatta’s and Canterbury-Bankstown’s each cover their loss at a ratio between 1.3 and 1.4. These are not marginal cases — they include the nation’s largest LGA by population (Brisbane) and three of Sydney’s core middle-ring LGAs. Eighteen LGAs in total show this pattern, holding a combined population of 5.29 million.
The Importers
Melton, Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich and Sunshine Coast sit at the opposite end — the five largest net internal migration gains in the sample analysed, from +4,159 (Sunshine Coast) to +7,441 (Melton). Every one of these five records “internal migration” as its primary growth driver, the only growth-driver classification that appears exclusively among positive-internal-migration LGAs in the sample analysed. Swan, The Hills and Greater Geelong follow the same pattern at a smaller scale. Twenty-two LGAs in total are net importers of internal migrants, holding a combined population of 6.87 million — a larger combined base than the exporter group, but concentrated in outer growth-corridor LGAs rather than established metropolitan ones.
The Growth Gap Between the Two Groups
The eighteen net-internal-migration-loss LGAs average 1.36 per cent population growth for 2024–25. The twenty-two net-internal-migration-gain LGAs average 2.45 per cent — nearly double. Overseas migration offsets the domestic outflow enough to keep exporter LGAs growing, but not enough to close the gap with LGAs that are gaining residents from within Australia as well as from overseas. The offset disguises the loss on the headline number; it does not erase its effect on the growth rate.
What This Means
A single population change percentage, read in isolation, cannot distinguish an LGA gaining residents from across Australia from one losing them to the rest of the country and recovering the difference from overseas arrivals. Across the 40 most populous LGAs, almost half fall into the second category — including Australia’s largest LGA by population and several of its established middle-ring metropolitan areas. The growth-corridor LGAs at the other end of the table — Melton, Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast — are gaining residents on every measure at once, and grow measurably faster as a result. The migration-composition breakdown, not the headline growth figure, is what makes this distinction visible.
The Housing Stock Underneath the Migration Pattern
The exporter/importer split correlates with apartment share of dwelling stock across the full sample of 40 — not just at the extremes. Exporters average 29.7 per cent apartment stock against 6.4 per cent for importers, and the relationship holds as a continuous trend (r = −0.60): the higher an LGA’s apartment share, the larger its net internal migration loss tends to be. Melbourne (85.8 per cent apartment) and Sydney (78.5 per cent) anchor one end; Melton, Casey and Wanneroo, all under 1 per cent apartment stock, anchor the other.
The apartment-heavy exporter LGAs also carry a higher Census unoccupied private dwelling rate — 9.3 per cent on average, against 6.8 per cent for importers. This is a Census-night snapshot of empty dwellings, not a market rental vacancy rate, and it is inflated in apartment-dominant markets by short-stay and investor-held stock that never reaches the rental market at all. Read alongside the migration pattern, not as an independent supply signal.
Methodology Note
Population figures are Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as at 30 June 2025. Natural increase, net internal migration and net overseas migration are drawn from ABS Regional Population Components (FY2025–26) and sum to each LGA’s total population change for the period. Net internal migration reflects movement to and from other parts of Australia only and is independent of net overseas migration; an LGA can register a domestic outflow and a positive headline growth rate simultaneously, which is the condition this analysis examines. This analysis covers the 40 most populous LGAs in Australia, compiled through the APN LGA Intelligence Routine; findings here describe this sample only and should not be read as representative of the full national distribution of Australia’s Local Government Areas. Approvals trend data is not yet calculable for any LGA in the sample analysed pending a further complete quarter of certified monthly data.
