--- title: "21450 – Household Economic Cohort Analysis" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21450-household-economic-cohort-analysis/ date: 2026-08-18 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21450 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified Household Economic Cohort Analysis Z-Score+1.2242σPeriodQ2 2026Position80.6 of 73 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Household Economic Cohort Analysis (21450) measures whether living costs are..." word_count: 1082 --- # 21450 – Household Economic Cohort Analysis - APN Codex Node 21450 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified ### Household Economic Cohort Analysis Z-Score+1.2242σPeriodQ2 2026Position80.6 of 73 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Household Economic Cohort Analysis (21450) measures whether living costs are rising faster for households that depend on a government pension or benefit than prices are rising for the population as a whole: the growth over the year in the ABS Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index less the growth over the year in the Consumer Price Index, in percentage points. Higher readings mean pension and benefit households facing faster cost growth than the headline rate shows. Where the four components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400) measure how many people there are, how old they are and how they form households, this node measures the economic position of the cohort most exposed to housing costs. It sits in the 21400 Series but outside the composite, and is certified and published in its own right. Known limitations **Formula change, October 2026.** Until October 2026 the spread was standardised against March 2012 to December 2025 with a population standard deviation. It is now read against the standard 2011–2025 baseline with the sample standard deviation, as every node is. The spread itself is unchanged. **Coverage.** The Living Cost Index measures out-of-pocket costs, including mortgage and consumer credit interest; the CPI excludes interest charges. For this cohort the difference is small: in the June quarter 2026 the index’s Housing group rose 9.03% over the year, while its mortgage interest charges rose 2.92%. **Spread.** The reading is a difference of two growth rates, not a level of cost; a positive spread with both rates low is a different condition from one with both rates high, so both rates are shown on this page. **Cohort.** The index covers households whose principal income is a government pension or benefit. It does not describe self-funded retirees or everyone aged 65 and over. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21450)** Z-Score Construction Current (Q2 2026)+1.2242σ πPBLCItGrowth over the year in the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index, all groups: 4.65% at June 2026 πCPItGrowth over the year in the Consumer Price Index, all groups, Australia: 3.94% at June 2026 StThe spread, percentage points: +0.71 at June 2026 μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation of the spread, March 2011 to December 2025 (+0.10 and 0.50 points, 60 quarters) **Metric typology:** single-series Z-score of the spread between two growth rates. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index, all groups | ABS Selected Living Cost Indexes, Australia (6467.0) | Quarterly | June quarter 2007 to June quarter 2026 | | Consumer Price Index, all groups, Australia | ABS Consumer Price Index, Australia (6401.0) | Quarterly | September quarter 1948 to June quarter 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline. Household Economic Cohort Analysis (21450) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026+1.2242σ · position 80.6, ranked against 73 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, +1.2242σ, ranks 80.6 against 73 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.1746σ to +1.5941σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.5045σ in the March quarter 2011, and the lowest −2.6749σ in the June quarter 2022. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q2 2008 | +0.2315σ | Ranked | | Q3 2008 | +0.1737σ | Ranked | | Q4 2008 | +0.9092σ | Ranked | | Q1 2009 | +1.9564σ | Ranked | | Q2 2009 | +1.4561σ | Ranked | | Q3 2009 | +1.2555σ | Ranked | | Q4 2009 | +0.9105σ | Ranked | | Q1 2010 | −0.3528σ | Ranked | | Q2 2010 | +1.3425σ | Ranked | | Q3 2010 | +1.7562σ | Ranked | | Q4 2010 | +2.3336σ | Ranked | | Q1 2011 | +2.5045σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | +1.6623σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | +1.1324σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | +0.0623σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | −0.5134σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | −0.4557σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | −0.2408σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | −0.2593σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | −0.1384σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | −0.2283σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | −0.7244σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | −0.7083σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.0087σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −0.1586σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −0.4199σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | −0.3656σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | −1.0494σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −1.1781σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −1.2250σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.8845σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.7010σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.3718σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +0.1897σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | +0.2735σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | +0.3399σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | +0.1426σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.1641σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | +0.4045σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | +0.4986σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | +0.5861σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.4704σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | +0.3245σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.3582σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | +0.4399σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | +0.1303σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.0526σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.1704σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +1.3699σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +0.1830σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | −0.6732σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | −1.2250σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −2.0568σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −1.1603σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −1.2489σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −1.2506σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −2.6749σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | −2.0138σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | −1.0171σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +0.3211σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +1.8304σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +0.5082σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.1540σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.3075σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.4652σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +1.9662σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.6442σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +1.3855σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +1.2641σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +1.0322σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.7014σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +1.6286σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +1.2242σ | Ranked | Z-Score+1.2242σQ2 2026Position80.6ranked against 73 quartersSpread+0.71 pointsJune 2026Pensioner and beneficiary costs+4.65%CPI +3.94%Widest+1.34March 2011Narrowest−1.22June 2022 5Analytical Interpretation At +1.2242σ (Q2 2026), living costs for pension and benefit households rose 4.65% over the year to June 2026, against 3.94% for the CPI: a spread of 0.71 percentage points, above the 2011–2025 average of 0.10. **Position.** 80.6, ranked against 73 quarters since June 2008. The spread has been positive in each of the 14 quarters since March 2023. It was widest in that run in September 2024 (+1.08) and read +0.91 in March 2026. Before that, the CPI rose faster for nine consecutive quarters, from December 2020 to December 2022: the spread reached −1.22 in June 2022, when CPI growth was 6.21% against 4.99% for pension and benefit households, and both rates peaked in December 2022 (7.86% and 7.46%). Earlier, the spread was mostly negative from March 2012 to June 2016 (−0.51 in September 2015) and positive from September 2016 to September 2020. Its widest reading on record is +1.34, in March 2011. The current run is led by housing costs: the index’s Housing group rose 9.03% over the year to June 2026, more than any other group, and its mortgage interest charges 2.92%. The cohort the index describes holds little mortgage debt, so the pressure is in rents, rates and utilities rather than in the cost of credit. 6Related Nodes The four components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400). This node is a companion reading and does not enter the composite. [21410 →Population Growth & DistributionPopulation growth over the year. Q1 2026: −0.1883σ, 49.4 of 175 quarters. Weight 0.25.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21410-population-growth-distribution/)[21420 →Ageing Population & Housing NeedsThe rate of ageing: the change over the year in people aged 65+ per 100 of working age. Q1 2026: −0.1180σ, 75.9 of 175. Weight 0.30.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21420-ageing-population-housing-needs/)[21430 →Household Formation TrendsHouseholds formed over the year. Q1 2026: −0.1217σ, 36.2 of 59. Weight 0.15.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21430-household-formation-trends/)[21440 →Demographic Trend AnalysisThe change over the year in people aged 65+ per 100 households. Q1 2026: +0.3915σ, 75.9 of 59. Weight 0.30.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21440-demographic-trend-analysis/)[Parent index →21400 — Demographic Analysis (APN Aggregate Demographic Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21450 — Household Economic Cohort Analysis — Certified Both inputs are Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS 6467.0 and 6401.0) on a common quarterly cycle- The Z-score of +1.2242σ (Q2 2026) is derived directly from the inputs against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 73 quarters- The node sits outside the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ composite and does not affect it- The formula change and the difference in coverage between the two indexes are disclosed **Certified:** 5 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21450 Series21400 StatusCertified Z-Score+1.2242σ Position80.6 of 73 qtrs PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Baseline μ+0.10 pts Baseline σ0.50 pts Baseline N60 Weight in 21400Outside the composite