--- title: "21440 – Demographic Trend Analysis" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21440-demographic-trend-analysis/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21440 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified Demographic Trend Analysis Z-Score +0.3915σ Period Q1 2026 Position 75.9 of 59 qtrs Vintage 2026-Q4 1Node Definition Demographic Trend Analysis (21440)..." word_count: 846 --- # 21440 – Demographic Trend Analysis - APN Codex Node 21440 21400 — Demographic Analysis Certified ### Demographic Trend Analysis Z-Score+0.3915σPeriodQ1 2026Position75.9 of 59 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Demographic Trend Analysis (21440) measures how fast older residents are rising relative to the household base: the change over the year in the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 private households. Higher readings mean older residents growing faster than households, so a larger share of the housing stock is occupied by older households and turns over less often. It is a component of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), at a weight of 0.30. Known limitations **Measure change, October 2026.** Until October 2026 this node read the level of this ratio, on a household-size input whose recent values could not be sourced. The level rises with the calendar (a correlation with time of 0.997 over 2011–2025), so the node now reads its change over the year, and the level is shown as context. The household count is modelled, not measured between Censuses: population multiplied by the share living in private dwellings and divided by average household size, both taken from ABS Household and Family Projections. Each edition’s base-year estimate (June 2011, 2016 and 2021) is used as an anchor and interpolated by quarter, and the 2021-based projection is followed from June 2021. Recent quarters therefore rest on the projection’s assumptions; the 2026 Census, published from 2027, will re-anchor them. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21440)** Z-Score Construction Current (Q1 2026)+0.3915σ DtPeople aged 65+ per 100 private households, end of quarter t: 45.69 at March 2026, 45.01 a year earlier HtPrivate households, modelled as for Household Formation Trends (21430) μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation of the change, September 2011 to December 2025 (+0.61 and 0.19, 58 quarters) **Metric typology:** single-series Z-score of a four-quarter change in a ratio. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Estimated resident population aged 65 and over, Australia | ABS National, state and territory population (3101.0), through the ABS Data API (ERP_Q) | Quarterly | September quarter 1981 to March quarter 2026 | | Private households (modelled) | ABS estimated resident population with ABS Household and Family Projections, Series II | Quarterly | September quarter 2010 to March quarter 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS). No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline. Demographic Trend Analysis (21440) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, September 2011 to March 2026+0.3915σ · position 75.9, ranked against 59 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe March quarter 2026 reading, +0.3915σ, ranks 75.9 against 59 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.1749σ to +1.3802σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.3798σ in the March quarter 2021, and the lowest −1.9527σ in the June quarter 2023. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 2011 | +0.5590σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | +0.6025σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | +0.6646σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | +0.7956σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | +0.3908σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | +0.2681σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.1532σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.0642σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.2014σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.1933σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.1251σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | +0.0541σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −0.0182σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | +0.0222σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | +0.0110σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | +0.0200σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | +0.0146σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | +0.0043σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.0404σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.0638σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | −0.3082σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | −0.5848σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | −0.8724σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −1.0470σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | −1.1305σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | −0.9340σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.7859σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.6986σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | −0.5400σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | −0.5908σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | −0.6553σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −0.5614σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | −0.2743σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | +0.3432σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.8886σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +1.3356σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +2.1589σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +2.1934σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +2.3798σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | +2.1060σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | +1.9422σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +1.5586σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +0.8339σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +0.4568σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | −0.7294σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | −1.3526σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | −1.6954σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | −1.9527σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | −1.9332σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | −1.6690σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | −1.3625σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | −0.8529σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | −0.3821σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | −0.1219σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.0860σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.2099σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.1796σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.3406σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.3915σ | Ranked | Z-Score+0.3915σQ1 2026Position75.9ranked against 59 quartersChange over the year+0.69 per 100to March 2026People 65+ per 100 households45.69contextFastest rise+1.07March 2021Slowest rise+0.23June 2023 5Analytical Interpretation At +0.3915σ (Q1 2026), the number of people aged 65 and over rose by 0.69 for every 100 households in the year to March 2026, a little faster than the 2011–2025 average of 0.61, to 45.69. **Position.** 75.9, ranked against 59 quarters since September 2011. The rise was fastest in the year to March 2021 (+1.07), when household formation slowed while the border was closed, and slowest in the year to June 2023 (+0.23), when migration lifted household numbers. It has been above its 2011–2025 average in each of the past five quarters. 6Other Components The other components of the APN Aggregate Demographic Index™ (21400), and the series’ companion node. [21410 →Population Growth & DistributionPopulation growth over the year. Q1 2026: −0.1883σ, 49.4 of 175 quarters. Weight 0.25.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21410-population-growth-distribution/)[21420 →Ageing Population & Housing NeedsThe rate of ageing: the change over the year in people aged 65+ per 100 of working age. Q1 2026: −0.1180σ, 75.9 of 175. Weight 0.30.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21420-ageing-population-housing-needs/)[21430 →Household Formation TrendsHouseholds formed over the year. Q1 2026: −0.1217σ, 36.2 of 59. Weight 0.15.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21430-household-formation-trends/)[21450 →Household Economic Cohort AnalysisPensioner and beneficiary living-cost growth less CPI growth, outside the composite. Q2 2026: +1.2242σ, 80.6 of 73.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/21450-household-economic-cohort-analysis/)[Parent index →21400 — Demographic Analysis (APN Aggregate Demographic Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21400/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21440 — Demographic Trend Analysis — Certified The population inputs are a Tier-1 sovereign statistical release (ABS), and household size comes from ABS projections- The Z-score of +0.3915σ (Q1 2026) is derived directly from the inputs against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 59 quarters- The modelled household count, the change from the level to its change over the year, and the change of measure are disclosed **Certified:** 5 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21440 Series21400 StatusCertified Z-Score+0.3915σ Position75.9 of 59 qtrs PeriodQ1 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Baseline μ+0.61 Baseline σ0.19 Baseline N58