--- title: "21250 – Migration Trends" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21250/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-04 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21250 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified Migration Trends Composite Z+1.0390σ PeriodQ1 2026 Position86.7 of 61 qtrs Vintage2026-Q3 1 Node Definition Node 21250 measures Net Overseas Migration..." word_count: 1143 --- # 21250 – Migration Trends - APN Codex Node 21250 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified ### Migration Trends Composite Z+1.0390σ PeriodQ1 2026 Position86.7 of 61 qtrs Vintage2026-Q3 1 Node Definition Node 21250 measures Net Overseas Migration (NOM) as an input to the 21200 Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) composite, carrying a weight of 0.10 within that nine-input composite. It is the only node in the 21200 family built from a single certified series rather than a multi-vector composite — its measurement is direct rather than aggregated across several inputs. Migration Trends (21250) does not measure internal or domestic migration between Australian states or regions. Nor does it measure population growth broadly — that is the domain of Population Growth & Distribution (21410) within the separate 21400 Demographic Analysis series. Migration Trends (21250) measures net overseas migration specifically, as reported through Tier-1 institutional statistical collections. 2 Metric Definition & Composite Construction **Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21250)** Composite Construction — Single-Series Node Current (Q1 2026)+1.0390σ Composite structureUnlike the majority of 21200 series nodes, Migration Trends (21250) is not an average across multiple weighted inputs — a single certified series carries the full weighting (1.0) Z 21250,tProduced directly by APN's certified composite pipeline from the single input series' certified value **Metric typology:** Continuous single-series node, certified under the APN institutional data architecture. **A population standard deviation (σ) is not published at the node level here.** The underlying Net Overseas Migration series itself carries certified population parameters (see Section 3); the node's own certified output is a Z-score computed from that series rather than a separately stored composite σ. Where this would otherwise appear, it is a disclosed NIL RETURN rather than an invented figure. 3 Data Sources The node draws on a single certified series — Net Overseas Migration (NOM) — sourced from Tier-1 institutional collections (Australian Bureau of Statistics). | Input | Source | Weighting | Reference Period | | ----- | ------ | --------- | ---------------- | | Net Overseas Migration (NOM) | ABS, Catalogue 3101 / 3409 | 1.0 | Q1 2011 to Q4 2025 baseline | **Underlying series statistics, 2011–2025 baseline:** Baseline Mean (μ)60,188persons per quarter Standard Deviation (σ)39,278persons, N = 60 quarters Q1 2026 NOM Reading101,000persons, quarterly 4 Baseline Statistics — What's Certified So Far The current certified reading is +1.0390σ for the March quarter 2026, certified on 17 September 2026 with the single input series present at full weighting. | Reference Period | Composite Z-Score | Position | Series Coverage | Certified | | ---------------- | ----------------- | -------- | --------------- | --------- | | Q1 2026 | +1.0390σ | 86.7, ranked against 61 quarters | 1 of 1 input series present | 17 Sep 2026 | The chart below shows the node's reading for every quarter from March 2011. The single input series is present in every quarter, so the whole record is directly comparable. Migration Trends (21250) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to March 2026+1.0390σ · position 86.7, ranked against 61 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe March quarter 2026 reading, +1.0390σ, ranks 86.7 against 61 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.7584σ to +1.2096σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.6812σ in the March quarter 2023, and the lowest −2.6169σ in the September quarter 2020. The node reads net overseas migration, an original series that peaks in the March quarter each year, which accounts for the alternating pattern. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q1 2011 | +0.0207σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | −0.5344σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | −0.1219σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | −0.2441σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | +0.3516σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | −0.2110σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | +0.0792σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | −0.2339σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.2804σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | −0.3918σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | −0.1525σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | −0.5598σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.1225σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −0.7584σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −0.2543σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | −0.5955σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | +0.0920σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −0.6846σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −0.2492σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.5318σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | +0.3262σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.4223σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +0.3440σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | −0.1677σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | +0.7284σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −0.3281σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.2422σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | −0.6209σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | +0.6342σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.3205σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.3465σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | −0.3689σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.5960σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −0.5598σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | +0.3644σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.2263σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.3822σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | −1.7437σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | −2.6169σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | −2.2783σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | −1.8939σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −1.5044σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −1.8633σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −0.6311σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +1.2045σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +0.4535σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +1.7188σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +1.6399σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +2.6812σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +1.5355σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +2.1644σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.0009σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +1.7443σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | −0.1117σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.5451σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.1047σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +1.2096σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | −0.3129σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.6852σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | −0.1041σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +1.0390σ | Ranked | 5 Analytical Interpretation The certified reading of +1.0390σ (Q1 2026) places Net Overseas Migration one standard deviation above its 2011–2025 average. **Position.** 86.7, ranked against 61 quarters from March 2011 to March 2026, which places the reading in the upper sixth of that record. The input is not seasonally adjusted: net overseas migration runs highest in the March quarter each year, so each reading is best compared with the same quarter of earlier years. Against that comparison, +1.0390σ is the lowest March-quarter reading since 2021. The record falls into four phases. From March 2011 to March 2020 the reading stayed within ±0.76σ of the average. From June 2020 to December 2021, the period of Australia’s international border closures, it ranged from −0.6311σ to −2.6169σ. From March 2022 to March 2024 it ranged from +0.4535σ to +2.6812σ. From June 2024 it has ranged from −0.3129σ to +1.2096σ, closer to the average, with the highest readings of that phase in the March quarters. As a single-series node, Migration Trends (21250) carries no internal weighting: its certified Z-score is a direct read of Net Overseas Migration against its 2011–2025 baseline. 6Other Components The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). [Node 21210Interest RatesReads the cost of capital from the cash rate, retail lending rates, the two-year forward bond yield and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income multiples.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/) [Node 21220InflationReads the inflation environment from headline, housing and trimmed-mean consumer prices, house construction producer prices and consumer inflation expectations.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/) [Node 21230Employment & GDPReads the strength of the labour market and of output growth, from Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) at equal weight.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) [Node 21240Household Finance & SpendingReads household financial position from the gap between investor and first home buyer lending growth, the gap between discretionary and non-discretionary spending, and the share of high debt-to-income lending.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21240/) [Node 21260Construction Costs & Supply ChainReads construction cost and supply-chain pressure from the gap between output and input producer prices by state, input price growth, dwelling approvals volume and construction companies entering external administration.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21260/) [Node 21270Credit VelocityReads the pace of new credit origination from new loan commitments, the share of lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, and lenders' interest spreads and serviceability settings.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21270/) [Node 21280Business InsolvencyReads companies entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, with construction and all other industries as separate components, from ASIC insolvency statistics.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/) [Node 21290Construction Completion LagReads how long the pool of dwellings under construction is taking to clear, comparing the stock under construction against the rate at which dwellings are completed.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21290/) [Parent index21200 — Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/) 7 Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21250 — Migration Trends — Certified The single input series is sourced exclusively from a Tier-1 institutional collection (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue 3101 / 3409) - The node Z-score is derived directly from the certified input series, not estimated or manually adjusted - The certified reading of +1.0390σ (Q1 2026) is a full-weighting, single-series composite, ranked 86.7 against 61 quarters - No population standard deviation is claimed at the node-output level; this is disclosed as NIL RETURN rather than invented - No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified by:** APN Lead Systems Architect **Date:** 17 September 2026 **Next review:** Upon next quarterly ABS release cycle ##### Node Parameters Node21250 Series21200 StatusCertified Composite Z+1.0390σ PeriodQ1 2026 Position86.7 of 61 qtrs Vintage2026-Q3 AMVI Weight0.10