Starts per 100 Approvals: How Each State's Dwelling Commencements Track Its Approvals

What the comparison measures

Dwelling approvals are counted by the ABS in Building Approvals when councils and certifiers approve a job; commencements are counted in Building Activity when site work begins. A dwelling approved in one quarter is usually begun in a later one, and the two collections are not linked project by project. Dividing starts by approvals over the same period therefore measures how closely starts have kept pace with approvals, not the share of approved dwellings that went ahead. The national picture since 1984 is set out in From Approval to Start: The Conversion Gap; this piece takes the same measure state by state.

Fifteen years: close to one start per approval everywhere

Over the fifteen years, every state and territory began between 96.7 and 102.4 dwellings per 100 approved. New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which account for most approvals, were each between 96 and 100. Over a long enough period, starts in every state have nearly matched approvals. The data cannot show whether the small shortfall, nationally and in seven of the eight states and territories, reflects approvals that lapsed, approvals replaced by later ones, or dwellings begun after 2025.

The year to June 2026

APN calculation based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Building Activity, Australia, June quarter 2026, Table 34. Approvals: Building Approvals, Australia, August 2026, Table 9. Total dwelling units, original. State commencements sum to within a few dwellings of the national total.

In the four quarters to June 2026, Victoria began 1,789 more dwellings than it approved, and Queensland 2,889 fewer. Queensland approved 48,754 dwellings in the year to June 2026, 26.9% more than in the year to June 2025. Starts in a period can relate to approvals from an earlier one, so a low ratio in a year of rising approvals is consistent with timing, though the data cannot confirm it. The territories’ ratios move furthest from year to year, because their totals are small and a few large projects can shift them a long way. The approvals behind these figures are covered in Dwelling Approvals, August 2026: Houses Lead a Rising Year, and what happens after a start in From Approval to Completion: Australia’s Dwelling Pipeline Stage by Stage.

Year by year in the three largest states

In single years the ratio moves well away from 100 and back. In New South Wales it ranged from 88.3 to 110.7, in Victoria from 93.4 to 105.7 and in Queensland from 94.1 to 105.1. In years when starts outnumber approvals, some of those starts must be dwellings approved in earlier years.

The reading

Building Approvals & Commencements (21510) combines national approvals, commencements and the gap between them, each standardised against its 2011 to 2025 history. At +0.4936σ for the June quarter 2026, with approvals at +0.6369σ and commencements at +0.5146σ, both stages are above their averages; its position is 91.2 against 172 quarters.

What this does not show

Because the two collections are not linked, the ratio cannot show how many approvals lapse, how long the gap between approval and start is, or why. Commencements come from a survey and are revised; approvals are revised as late returns arrive, and this piece uses the August 2026 edition. Both count dwellings in new buildings and those created by alterations and conversions, across public and private sectors. State ratios for the territories rest on small numbers.

Findings are presented on the basis of data and evidence alone.