Through 2025 the average value of an Australian dwelling and the number of new home loans rose together for four quarters in a row, the longest such run since the two measures can first be compared in 2011. The run ended in the March quarter of 2026, when loan numbers fell 3.8% while the average price was still rising. In the June quarter both fell: the mean dwelling price by 0.7% and new owner-occupier loans by 3.3%, the first quarter in which both declined since March 2023.
The reading is positive only in quarters when the price and the number of loans both rise.
Two measures and four combinations
This article sets two ABS series side by side. The first is the mean price of residential dwellings, the average estimated value of every home in the country, from Total Value of Dwellings. The second is the number of new loans approved for owner-occupiers, excluding refinancing, from the Lending Indicators. One measures what homes are worth; the other how many households commit to buying or building one. The price series is in original terms and the loan count is seasonally adjusted.
In any quarter each measure either rises or falls, which gives four combinations. Both can rise, which is the pattern usually described as a market gathering pace. Prices can rise while fewer loans are written. Both can fall. Or prices can fall while more loans are written. Since the December quarter of 2011 there have been 59 quarters to sort.
Prices and loan numbers, quarter by quarter
Quarterly change in the mean dwelling price and in the number of new owner-occupier loans, Australia
Percentage change on the previous quarter, December quarter 2011 to June quarter 2026. The price is in original terms; the loan count is seasonally adjusted. APN calculation based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Total Value of Dwellings, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A83728647F) and Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A130268886L).
Loan numbers move far more than prices. The largest quarterly rise in new owner-occupier loans was 28.0%, in the September quarter of 2020, straight after the largest fall, 11.9%, in the June quarter. The mean price has never moved by as much as 7% in a quarter. Prices rose in 45 of the 59 quarters; loan numbers rose in 28, fewer than half.
How often each combination occurs
Quarters in each combination of price and loan movements, December 2011 to June 2026
The 59 quarters from December 2011 to June 2026, by whether the mean dwelling price and the number of new owner-occupier loans rose or fell on the previous quarter. APN calculation based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Total Value of Dwellings, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A83728647F) and Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A130268886L).
The most common combination is both rising: 25 quarters of 59. Prices rising while loan numbers fell is nearly as common, at 20 quarters, so a rising average price has gone with falling loan numbers almost as often as with rising ones. Both fell in 11 quarters. The fourth combination is rare: prices fell while loan numbers rose in only 3 quarters, the most recent in September 2017. Taken together, the two measures moved in the same direction in 36 of the 59 quarters.
Quarters in which both fell have come in clusters: five in a row from March 2018 to March 2019, the June quarter of 2020, and three of the four quarters from June 2022 to March 2023. The June quarter of 2026 is the eleventh, and the first since March 2023.
Runs of rising together
Runs in which both measures rose have been short. Before 2025 the longest lasted three quarters, and there were three of them: December 2012 to June 2013, December 2016 to June 2017, and September 2020 to March 2021. The run from March to December 2025 lasted four. It ended with its largest quarter: in the December quarter of 2025 the mean price rose 4.0% and loan numbers 4.1%, the first quarter since March 2021 in which both rose by 4% or more.
| Quarter | Mean dwelling price | Change in the quarter | New owner-occupier loans | Change in the quarter | Combination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | $983,300 | +0.1% | 83,279 | +0.6% | Prices up, loans up |
| December 2024 | $1,002,900 | +2.0% | 81,916 | −1.6% | Prices up, loans down |
| March 2025 | $1,007,800 | +0.5% | 82,068 | +0.2% | Prices up, loans up |
| June 2025 | $1,029,900 | +2.2% | 82,931 | +1.1% | Prices up, loans up |
| September 2025 | $1,050,900 | +2.0% | 84,188 | +1.5% | Prices up, loans up |
| December 2025 | $1,093,200 | +4.0% | 87,659 | +4.1% | Prices up, loans up |
| March 2026 | $1,108,600 | +1.4% | 84,371 | −3.8% | Prices up, loans down |
| June 2026 | $1,100,400 | −0.7% | 81,626 | −3.3% | Prices down, loans down |
Loans are new loan commitments to owner-occupiers for dwellings, excluding refinancing, seasonally adjusted. APN calculation based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Total Value of Dwellings, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A83728647F) and Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A130268886L).
Which moves first
Average quarterly change in the mean dwelling price, by what loan numbers did
Average quarterly change in the mean dwelling price, December quarter 2011 to June quarter 2026, grouped by the direction of the loan count. APN calculation based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Total Value of Dwellings, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A83728647F) and Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026, Table 1 (A130268886L).
Across the 59 quarters the two quarterly changes have a correlation of 0.39, where 1 would mean they move in step and 0 that they are unrelated. The mean price rose by an average of 1.97% in quarters when loan numbers rose and 0.88% when they fell.
The timing is not symmetrical. A quarter’s change in loan numbers is related to the following quarter’s change in price (a correlation of 0.35), while a quarter’s change in price has almost no relation to the following quarter’s change in loan numbers (0.10). After a quarter in which loan numbers rose, the mean price rose by an average of 1.87%; after a quarter in which they fell, by 1.03%. Over these fifteen years, changes in loan numbers have tended to come before changes in the average price, not after them. That is an average over 59 quarters with many exceptions, and both series respond to interest rates and to government assistance for buyers.
Where the reading sits
Market Psychology & Herd Behaviour (21620) is built from these two quarterly changes. It multiplies each quarter’s price change by its change in loan numbers, each measured against its own average, and counts the result as positive only when both rose. In the June quarter of 2026, with both falling, it read −0.2802σ and ranked 25.9 against 59 quarters: higher than 15 of the other 58. The data show that prices and loan numbers moved together; they do not show why buyers acted, and the reading is not a measure of motive.
What this does not show
The mean price is an estimate of the value of all dwellings, not of the homes sold in the quarter, and its latest quarters are revised. The loan count covers owner-occupiers only; a matching count for investors begins in 2019 and is too short to compare. A loan approved is not a purchase completed, and purchases made without a loan are not counted. Fifty-nine quarters hold only a handful of turning points, so the timing result above rests on few episodes. Two quarters of falling loan numbers do not establish a trend, and nothing here indicates what either measure will do next.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics (Reference period: June quarter 2026) ‘Table 1. Households; Housing finance; Total dwellings; By property purpose; New loan commitments; Values’ [data set], Lending Indicators [https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/jun-quarter-2026], accessed 10 October 2026.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics (Reference period: June quarter 2026) ‘Table 1. Total Value of Dwellings, All Series’ [data set], Total Value of Dwellings, Australia [https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/total-value-dwellings/jun-quarter-2026], accessed 10 October 2026.
ABS material is used under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. Calculations, standardisations and index readings are APN’s and are not attributable to the ABS.
Findings are presented on the basis of data and evidence alone.
