Investors, First Home Buyers and Borrowing: Rachel Ong ViforJ's Figures Tested

Investors, First Home Buyers and Borrowing: Rachel Ong ViforJ’s Figures Tested

Scope and Purpose

In a submission to the Senate Select Committee on Intergenerational Housing Inequity, Professor Rachel Ong ViforJ of Curtin University sets out how the housing wealth gap between generations has widened and what might narrow it. Her submission is carried in the companion Submissions, Inquiries & Testimony output, Ong ViforJ: Why the Housing Gap Between Generations Is Widening, and What Would Narrow It. Most of its figures come from her own research. Three of her claims can be set against published series that Australian Property Network (APN) holds: that investors have taken a growing share of new housing loans at the expense of first home buyers; that widening first home buyer assistance in a tight market has pushed prices up; and that young mortgage holders borrow far more relative to income than in 1990. The short answer is that the lending figures reproduce closely, with one finding they do not state, and that the other two claims point in the direction the data shows but cannot be confirmed in the form she gives them.

Proposition One: Investors Have Crowded Out First Home Buyers

The figures reproduce. On ABS Lending Indicators data for the number of new housing loans, seasonally adjusted, investors accounted for 28.12% of new loans in the December quarter of 2019 and 40.8% in the December quarter of 2025. First home buyers accounted for 25.4% and 21.1%. Her 40% and 22% for 2025 match these to within a percentage point; her “about a quarter each” for 2019 is close for first home buyers and about three points low for investors. The claim holds on the number of loans. Her submission also gives a second pair for December 2025, 39% and 18%, which appears to measure the value of loans; APN does not hold that series, and records it as NIL RETURN.

The series adds a finding the submission does not state. Within owner-occupier lending, first home buyers’ share barely moved: 35.29% of owner-occupier loans in December 2019 and 35.68% in December 2025. First home buyers lost share of the whole market because investors’ share of lending grew, not because they lost ground to other owner-occupiers. The chart also shows the path was not steady. First home buyers’ share peaked at 31.6% in the December quarter of 2020, during the pandemic-era grants and low rates, and investors’ share has risen, with brief pauses, since mid-2021. Investor vs. Owner-Occupier Behaviour (21610) reads +1.2431σ for the June quarter of 2026, still elevated, with the investor share easing to 39.19%. First Home Buyer Lending Share (21660) reads +0.0791σ for the March quarter, close to its 2011–2025 norm, though below most of its recent history (position 23.1 of 27).

Proposition Two: Wider First Home Buyer Assistance Has Pushed Up Prices

The timing is consistent with the claim, but the data cannot isolate the effect. The Australian Government’s 5% Deposit Scheme was widened from 1 October 2025. In the December quarter of 2025, the ABS mean price of residential dwellings rose 4.0%, its largest quarterly rise in the past year, and first home buyers’ share of owner-occupier loans edged up from 35.0% to 35.7%, then to 36.2% in the March quarter. The same period also followed a series of cash rate reductions during 2025, which work on the same prices. The claim is consistent with the record, but the record cannot separate the scheme’s effect from that of lower interest rates, so APN cannot confirm it.

Proposition Three: Young Mortgage Holders Borrow Far More Than in 1990

Her figure, that the average mortgage debt of mortgage holders aged 25 to 34 rose from 108% to 242% of their income between 1990 and 2019, comes from ABS survey data that APN does not hold by age, and APN records it as NIL RETURN. The broader measure points the same way. The Reserve Bank’s ratio of housing debt to household disposable income, across all households, rose from 31.5% in the March quarter of 1990 to 135.2% in the March quarter of 2019, a more than fourfold increase. The direction she describes is confirmed across all households; the figures for young mortgage holders in particular cannot be tested here. APN’s test of Martin North’s borrowing claims sets out how that ratio has behaved since 2000.

APN Analytical Synthesis

Of Ong ViforJ’s three claims that rest on published series, the lending shares reproduce closely, and the other two describe changes the data is consistent with but cannot confirm in the form given. The lending data adds one finding the submission does not make: the decline in first home buyers’ share of the market came from investors’ share rising, while first home buyers held their place among owner-occupiers. The competition she describes is between first home buyers and investors, which is where the 2026 Budget’s changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount are directed.

Whether those changes move the investor share will show in the lending data from 2027, when the negative gearing and capital gains changes take full effect. The investor share has already eased from 40.8% to 39.2% over the first half of 2026. This synthesis speaks only to the structural conditions the cited data can independently support; it does not constitute a view on future lending, prices or policy outcomes, and no such view is expressed or implied.

Disclaimer

The analysis and information contained in this publication are for general informational and strategic purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, or any other form of professional advice. Australian Property Network is not a licensed financial advisor. Property values and market conditions can go up or down. Before making any property or investment decisions, you must conduct your own thorough research and seek independent professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances.