APN Credit Rationing Index™
The APN Credit Rationing Index™ reads how tightly mortgage credit is being rationed: how much APRA’s serviceability rules reduce the amount a borrower can be approved for, and how strictly lenders keep to their own serviceability policies. Higher readings mean tighter rationing.
It is a national time series and a component of the APN Risk & Compliance Index™ (24200), which it enters inverted: looser credit adds to that index.
| Component | Source | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Serviceability constraint: the reduction in the largest loan a borrower can be approved for under APRA’s assessment rules, at the average new owner-occupier variable rate | APN calculation from the RBA’s lending rates and APRA’s serviceability buffer, quarterly from September 2019 | 50% |
| Loans approved within serviceability policy: new housing loans not approved as exceptions to the lender’s serviceability policy, as a share of new loans funded | APRA Quarterly ADI Property Exposures, all authorised deposit-taking institutions, quarterly from March 2019 | 50% |
Both inputs rise when credit is rationed more tightly. Lending volumes and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, which rise when credit is freer, are read by Credit Velocity (21270).
| Input | June quarter 2026 | Standardised |
|---|---|---|
| Serviceability constraint | 25.16% reduction (2019–2025 average 26.30%) | −0.7466 |
| Loans approved within serviceability policy | 94.22% (5.78% approved as exceptions; average 3.34%) | −2.1130 |
| Composite | — | −1.4298 |
The June quarter 2026 reading, −1.4298σ, is the lowest of the 28 ranked quarters (position 0.0) and sits below the normal range of −1.0189σ to +0.7842σ. Higher readings mean credit is rationed more tightly.
Show the data
| Quarter | Reading | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2019 | +0.4528σ | Partial coverage |
| Q2 2019 | +0.2829σ | Partial coverage |
| Q3 2019 | +0.0759σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2019 | −0.0095σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2020 | +0.3314σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2020 | +0.4513σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2020 | +0.4996σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2020 | +0.6105σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2021 | +0.4049σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2021 | +0.3941σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2021 | +0.3083σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2021 | +1.3640σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2022 | +1.4120σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2022 | +1.1746σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2022 | +0.6169σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2022 | +0.2833σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2023 | +0.2079σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2023 | +0.0158σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2023 | −0.7484σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2023 | −1.0236σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2024 | −1.0169σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2024 | −0.9640σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2024 | −1.0347σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2024 | −0.9271σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2025 | −0.8589σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2025 | −0.7949σ | Ranked |
| Q3 2025 | −0.7028σ | Ranked |
| Q4 2025 | −0.8051σ | Ranked |
| Q1 2026 | −1.0027σ | Ranked |
| Q2 2026 | −1.4298σ | Ranked |
The June quarter 2026 reading, −1.4298σ, is the lowest of the node’s 28 quarters: mortgage credit is rationed less tightly than at any point since September 2019. Lenders approved 5.78% of new loans as exceptions to their own serviceability policy, against an average of 3.34% from 2019 to 2025, the highest share in the record. APRA’s buffer reduces the largest approvable loan by 25.16%, below its average of 26.30%.
Rationing was tightest in the March quarter 2022 (+1.4120σ), after APRA raised the serviceability buffer to three percentage points in October 2021, and has read below its average since the September quarter 2023.
- Measure change, October 2026. The index previously read the value of new loan commitments and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, both of which rise when credit is freer, and duplicated Credit Velocity (21270). It now reads rationing directly, and every quarter is restated; readings differ from those published before 2 October 2026.
- Short baselines. APRA’s exceptions data begins in March 2019 and the serviceability constraint in September 2019, so each input’s baseline holds fewer quarters than the platform minimum. This is disclosed rather than smoothed over.
- A calculated constraint. The serviceability constraint is calculated for a standard 30-year loan at the average new owner-occupier variable rate; it is not an observed loan outcome.
- Coverage. APRA’s exceptions data covers authorised deposit-taking institutions, not non-bank lenders.
The other components of the APN Risk & Compliance Index™ (24200).
- Certified as a component of the APN Risk & Compliance Index™ (position 0.0 against 28 quarters, from a Z-score of −1.4298 at the quarter ending 30 June 2026)
- Measure-change, short-baseline and coverage caveats disclosed above
