24751 – Survey Sentiment

Survey Sentiment measures what households, businesses and property professionals say about conditions when asked. It is built entirely from survey responses — stated expectations, not recorded transactions.

The node is a component of Sentiment & Behavioural Conditions (24750), which in turn sits within the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (24700). It is a national time series, not a geographic one — there is no locality distribution or map at this node.

Its sibling component Investor Behaviour (24752) measures what people actually do with capital. Separating the two is the structural purpose of this branch: stated sentiment and revealed behaviour frequently diverge, and averaging them together conceals exactly the moments when they do.

The two confidence measures sit alongside the property professionals’ index and broaden the node beyond property-sector opinion alone.

Each input is expressed against its own 2011–2025 comparison window before the three are combined at equal weight.

All three inputs sit below their own fifteen-year averages, and the composite of −1.06 places this quarter among the weaker readings the node records. Ranked against the 62 quarters in which all three inputs are present, the position is 4.9: only three of those quarters have recorded weaker survey sentiment.

The three are not equally weak. Consumer confidence carries the reading at −1.95, considerably further below its own average than either business confidence at −0.89 or the property professionals' index at −0.33. Households are markedly more subdued than the property sector.

That spread is itself the notable feature. Those closest to the property market report conditions near their own historical norm, while consumers report conditions well below theirs. The node's composite sits between the two and represents neither directly.

• The comparison basis matters more at this node than at most. The position ranks this quarter against the 62 quarters in which all three inputs are present, giving 4.9. The retired all-rows basis, which ranked against every quarter including those missing an input, gave 10.4. This is one of the few components where the two differ appreciably, and the full-coverage basis is the ratified one across the 24700 series.
• Surveys measure stated expectation, not action. Respondents report how they feel about conditions. Whether that translates into transactions is a separate question, addressed by Investor Behaviour (24752).
• The three inputs are not measured on a common scale. One is a net balance among property professionals, the others are standardised confidence measures across the whole economy. Each is compared to its own history rather than to the others.
• Business confidence is drawn from manufacturing, which is not the property or construction sector. It is included as a general indicator of business conditions, not as a property-specific one.
• All three inputs hold sufficient observations against the 2011–2025 comparison window and none carries a short-history qualification.
• Signed direction. This component enters the index as it reads: stronger stated sentiment is a supportive condition for investment. Its signed and intensity positions therefore coincide at 4.9 — one frame carrying that direction, the other measuring distance from the node's own record without regard to it.

The other two components of Sentiment & Behavioural Conditions (24750). Each is independently certified and enters that branch at equal weight.