Fraser Coast — LGA Conditions Intelligence

Net internal migration held remarkably stable across all four available years — no COVID spike, no reversal. Arrivals declined (10,118 → 8,626) while departures fell faster (7,567 → 5,936), producing a stable-to-improving net gain with strengthening retention.

ERP growth segmented into four phases. The current phase (2021–2025) is the strongest since before the post-GFC stall, and — unlike many LGAs in the sustained-inflow cohort — began as a structural recovery from 2017, not a COVID artefact.

Against 2,690 net internal arrivals in 2024-25 (≈1,121 implied new households at 2.4 persons/household) and 1,602 approvals the same year, supply appears marginally adequate on paper — but falling departures mean fewer dwellings are being vacated, so effective net demand may be higher than the migration figure alone suggests.

The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate and includes holiday homes, dwellings between tenancies, and homes under renovation; a coastal/retirement LGA like Fraser Coast typically reads high on this measure for that reason.

• Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1. Fraser Coast’s 43 population-eligible localities (97,716 residents) produce a population-weighted mean of 23.5 on node 24110. A simple, unweighted average across the same 43 localities gives 33.9 instead — a 10.4-point difference, the largest in this series, driven by lower-scoring, higher-population suburbs being under-weighted in a simple average. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform’s existing LGA-rollup convention.
• Classification badge is indicative. “Structural Absorber” reflects the qualitative pattern (falling departures, stable-to-rising net gain) but the platform’s formal 4-way LGA classification query has not yet been ratified — this badge should not be read as output of a ratified, repeatable system yet.
• No crime/safety data included in this version. APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached.
• Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage. Given natural increase has worsened from −192 (FY2021-22) to −562 (FY2024-25), the retirement skew has very likely deepened since the Census was taken.
• Card format approved 19 August 2026. The Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026; the LGA classification methodology remains unratified, independent of the card format itself.