APN Codex Node 21112 21110 Series — National Market Reports

Average Dwelling Prices

Terminal
Q2 2026
N
54
Current Z
+0.1474σ
Position
56.4 of 56 qtrs
1Node Definition

Average Dwelling Prices (21112) tracks the pace of change in the typical price of Australian dwellings — the central tendency of what the national dwelling stock is worth. It sits beside Hedonic Dwelling Value Indices (21111), which tracks the quality-adjusted change in what an equivalent basket of housing is worth; the two measure different things and are not expected to move in lockstep.

Measure used: the mean price

The node’s input is the Australian Bureau of Statistics national mean price of residential dwellings, the national central-price series with the longest consistent quarterly history available. A mean is pulled upward by high-value dwellings and moves with the mix of the dwelling stock as well as with prices, so it can read differently from a median when the top of the market moves faster or slower than the middle.

The underlying figures are year-on-year changes, so consecutive quarters share three of their four underlying quarters and are not independent of one another. The effective sample size is smaller than the quarter count alone suggests.

2Metric Definition

Primary metric: National Mean Dwelling Price, Year-on-Year Change, Z-Score

Z-Score Construction
Current (Q2 2026)+0.1474σ
XtNational mean dwelling price, year-on-year change, 6.85%
μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation, Sep 2012–Dec 2025 (5.9520, 6.0589)

Metric typology: single-vector Z-score index, sole driver of the node reading. The Z-score is built from the year-on-year percentage change in the mean price, not the price level itself — a price level trends upward over long periods by construction and, standardised against a fixed baseline, would measure elapsed time more than price conditions.

Position: 56.4, ranked against 56 quarters of this node’s own history.

3Data Sources

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Total Value of Dwellings, Table 1 — mean price of residential dwellings, Australia, quarterly, original terms. The mean-price series begins in the September quarter 2011; year-on-year growth begins one year later, so the certified baseline covers September 2012 to December 2025 (54 quarters), with current readings continuing beyond that window. State and territory mean prices from the same release are tracked as context and are not blended into the national reading.

4Analytical Interpretation

At +0.1474σ, growth in the national mean dwelling price is running close to its baseline average. Annual growth was 6.8% in the June 2026 quarter, easing from 10.0% in March, and the mean price itself dipped slightly over the quarter. That follows two quarters of above-average readings: +0.5037σ in December 2025 and +0.6684σ in March 2026. The wider history spans a wide range, from annual growth of −6.1% in the March quarter of 2019 to 24.1% in the December quarter of 2021, so the current reading sits in the middle of that range rather than near either end.

Hedonic Dwelling Value Indices (21111) read +0.3896σ for the June quarter 2026, so in that quarter both components of National Market Reports placed dwelling-price growth near its norm, the quality-adjusted measure slightly above the change in the average price of the whole stock. Hedonic Dwelling Value Indices (21111) has since moved to −0.5842σ in the September quarter 2026, its lowest reading since June 2023, as twelve-month growth in national dwelling values eased to 0.0%.

Historical Trend, Q3 2012 – Q2 2026
6Certification Statement

Average Dwelling Prices (21112) holds Active status. The certified Z-score is +0.1474σ (Q2 2026, N=54). The mean-price input and the overlapping-window construction described in Section 1 are disclosed features of this reading.