One Nation’s Housing Platform: A Structural Assessment of the Evidence Base
Platform Overview
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has placed housing and population at the centre of its current legislative programme. Six distinct mechanisms constitute the operational substance of the platform: an aggregate net overseas migration cap set at 130,000 across all visa categories; a prohibition on foreign acquisition of new residential dwellings paired with a forced-divestment regime for existing foreign-owned stock; a five-year moratorium on the application of the Goods and Services Tax to new residential construction; a regime permitting early superannuation withdrawal for first-home buyers; the removal of Universal Disability Design requirements from the National Construction Code; and state-level deregulation of secondary dwelling approval.
Scope. This assessment evaluates each mechanism on its structural and evidential properties. The analysis considers the operational consequence of each policy as drafted, the empirical base supporting or qualifying the intended outcome, and the interaction between the mechanisms when implemented simultaneously. The piece does not address electoral or rhetorical dimensions, does not characterise the platform’s authors, and does not assign motive to policy design choices.
Demand-Side Interventions: Immigration and Foreign Ownership
Migration architecture. The proposed aggregate cap of 130,000 places all visa categories — skilled, family, humanitarian, and student-derived — within a single ceiling. Net overseas migration to Australia recorded 538,000 in 2022–23, 429,000 in 2023–24, and 306,000 in 2024–25 (ABS). A cap at 130,000 represents a structural compression of the intake to approximately 42% of the 2024–25 level.
Construction labour composition. BuildSkills Australia identifies 40–50 construction workers per 1,000 population additions as the hurdle rate required to maintain per-capita housing equilibrium. The current intake delivers 32 construction workers per 1,000 net arrivals (BuildSkills Australia; Grattan Institute). The 457 visa programme, prior to its replacement by the TSS 482 subclass, delivered 88 construction workers per 1,000 skilled arrivals; degradation to the current 32 reflects accumulated visa tightening rather than absolute labour scarcity in source markets.
The structural consequence, if a hard aggregate cap of 130,000 operates across the existing occupational mix, is a proportional reduction in construction labour intake without correction to the underlying hurdle deficit. The weight of node evidence supports the interpretation that reductions in aggregate migration applied across an unchanged occupational composition reduce construction supply capacity concurrent with the reduction in demand, leaving the per-capita equilibrium gap structurally unchanged. The occupational composition of the intake — not its volume — is the variable that determines whether migration contributes to or draws from housing supply capacity.
Foreign ownership composition. The Australian Taxation Office Register of Foreign Ownership records foreign residential acquisitions at 0.6% of total transactions in 2021–22, 0.9% in 2022–23, 0.8% in 2023–24, and 0.5% in 2024–25. The 2026–27 Federal Budget extends the existing ban on foreign acquisition of established dwellings to mid-2029. Major banks already cap foreign-buyer pre-sales at 20–25% of qualifying debt cover and require 20% deposits from foreign buyers against 10% for domestic equivalents.
International precedent. New Zealand exempted residential buildings of 20 or more units from its foreign buyer ban; apartment consents subsequently recorded a 43% increase across the following 24 months. Canada implemented a blanket ban; Toronto condominium starts recorded a 46% reduction within 24 months. Urbis modelling commissioned by the Property Council of Australia (2021) projected apartment supply contracting to 21% of 2018 levels as a consequence of accumulated foreign capital withdrawal from the pre-sale stage of apartment development. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (2024) explicitly linked restrictions on foreign investors to reduced pre-sales and reduced new dwelling supply.
The structural consequence, if a blanket new-build ban operates concurrently with forced divestment, is the removal of pre-sale capital required to clear feasibility hurdles in the apartment pipeline. The forced-divestment component engages s.51(xxxi) of the Constitution (acquisition on just terms) and Australia’s investor-state dispute settlement exposure under existing trade architecture.
Taxation and Fiscal Architecture
The five-year GST moratorium. The Parliamentary Budget Office costed the proposed moratorium at $8.7 billion in reduced fiscal balance and $8.2 billion in reduced underlying cash balance across the forward estimates period. The Intergovernmental Agreement on Federal Financial Relations requires unanimous state and territory consent for changes to the GST base or rate.
The GST-infrastructure dependency. GST revenue is the operational funding base for state delivery of road, water, and sewage connections — the trunk infrastructure that converts zoned residential land into buildable lots. A moratorium intended to reduce dwelling delivery cost reduces, by an equivalent quantum, the fiscal capacity that funds the infrastructure connections on which private residential development depends. The structural consequence, if the moratorium operates as drafted, is a reduction in state infrastructure delivery capacity concurrent with the reduction in dwelling-stage GST liability.
Alternative architectures: foreign capital regulation. The British Columbia Speculation and Vacancy Tax applies a 3% annual levy to foreign-owned residential investment properties. The tax generated $79.6 million in 2024 (81% from foreign owners), shifted over 20,000 vacant units into the long-term rental market, drove rent reductions of 5–13% in key regulated municipalities, and has accumulated $550 million in cumulative revenue ring-fenced for affordable housing investment.
Canada’s federal Underused Housing Tax (1% annual) was repealed in March 2026 via Bill C-15 following administrative failure and disproportionate compliance burden on domestic entities — illustrating that the design of a foreign-property holding tax determines whether it operates as a behavioural instrument or as a generalised administrative cost.
The Australian foreign CGT framework. Foreign residents are taxed on 100% of nominal capital gains at non-resident marginal rates from the first dollar (32.5% applies from the first dollar of taxable Australian property income). The 50% CGT discount was removed for foreign residents in 2012; the Main Residence Exemption was removed in 2020; the Foreign Resident Capital Gains Withholding rate was increased to 15% on all transactions from January 2025. No Australian Treasury, FIRB, or parliamentary inquiry has formally modelled a dedicated CGT surcharge as a standalone alternative to the current foreign buyer ban. The prevailing regulatory strategy is layering: state surcharges at 7–9% on acquisition and 3–4% annually on landholdings, stacked on the federal ban on established dwellings.
Superannuation and Housing Finance
The early withdrawal proposal. The platform proposes early withdrawal of superannuation for first-home purchase. The First Home Super Saver Scheme, the existing voluntary equivalent, recorded 18,300 withdrawals and $303.6 million released in 2024–25, against a ceiling of $50,000.
Price transmission. McKell Institute modelling of a $60,000 superannuation withdrawal indicates median dwelling-price increases of 10.4% in Melbourne, 14.8% in Brisbane, 20.0% in Adelaide, and 28.3% in the Australian Capital Territory. Both mechanisms expand aggregate first-home buyer purchasing power against an inelastic supply base. The structural consequence, if the withdrawal mechanism operates as drafted within the current supply-constrained market, is upward pressure on entry-level dwelling prices proportional to the quantum of purchasing power released — an outcome directionally opposite to the platform’s stated affordability objective.
Regulatory architecture. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has maintained consistent macroprudential settings designed to prevent demand-side liquidity injections from transmitting directly into asset prices. The First Home Super Saver Scheme, operating within a $50,000 ceiling of voluntary contributions, releases modest liquidity and functions primarily as a tax-arbitrage savings vehicle rather than a structural affordability intervention.
Supply-Side Deregulation: Secondary Dwellings
Infrastructure cost-neutrality threshold. IPART benchmark data and Queensland local government data establish the per-dwelling cost-neutrality threshold for trunk infrastructure servicing a secondary dwelling at $20,000–$25,000.
State implementation. In Queensland, Logan City Council levies $13,000–$30,000 per auxiliary unit; Brisbane City Council largely exempts code-compliant sub-80m² dwellings; Gold Coast City Council historically applied approximately $17,000; Noosa Shire Council resolved to absorb the cost from 1 July 2025. In Victoria, secondary dwellings are explicitly exempt from local developer contributions, with utility connection charges retained. In New South Wales, the Housing SEPP exempts secondary dwellings from local environmental plan contributions.
Structural consequence. State planning overrides bypass the developer contribution mechanism without substituting an alternative funding instrument. Councils absorb an unfunded liability of approximately $20,000–$25,000 per approved secondary dwelling against no corresponding revenue inflow. The weight of node evidence indicates that deregulation of secondary dwelling approval without a federal or state co-contribution component transfers infrastructure cost from the development process to the general municipal rate base.
A Reformed Framework Within the Policy Agenda
The mechanisms proposed within the platform pursue four broad structural objectives: Australian-first ownership composition, discipline on aggregate demand, reduction in regulatory cost, and increase in dwelling production. The following framework retains those objectives while substituting mechanisms that are constitutionally available, legally supported, and structurally aligned with the stated supply outcome.
| Pillar | Current Mechanism | Structural Issue | Reformed Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration | Hard 130,000 aggregate cap across all visa categories | Reduces construction labour intake below the hurdle rate concurrent with reduction in demand | 130,000 aggregate cap retained; quarantined Construction Capacity Visa for trades at AQF Level 3–5 and vocational qualifications, modelled on the New Zealand Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement (CISA), sitting outside the aggregate count |
| Foreign ownership | Blanket new-build ban with forced divestment of existing holdings | Removes pre-sale capital from the apartment pipeline; forced divestment engages s.51(xxxi) and investor-state dispute settlement exposure | Annual 3% holding tax on foreign-owned residential investment properties (British Columbia SVT model); revenue ring-fenced for housing supply; exemption for properties held in continuous 12-month residential tenancies; existing federal ban on established dwellings retained to 2029 |
| Construction costs | Five-year GST moratorium on new residential construction | Requires unanimous state consent under the IGA FFR; PBO-costed $8.7 billion fiscal balance reduction transmits into reduced state infrastructure delivery capacity | Direct federal first-home buyer construction grant ($30,000–$50,000 for new builds only); operates within the Commonwealth grants power; no state consent required |
| Superannuation | Early withdrawal of preserved superannuation for first-home deposit | Demand-side intervention in a supply-constrained market; McKell Institute modelling indicates median price increases of up to 28.3% in constrained markets | Retain the First Home Super Saver Scheme as a voluntary tax-arbitrage savings instrument; channel affordability support through the supply-side construction grant |
| NCC standards | Removal of Universal Disability Design mandates | Saves $4,000–$30,000 upfront per dwelling; transfers an estimated 22× retrofit cost to the National Disability Insurance Scheme and aged care budget over a 30-year horizon | Voluntary Silver Standard stamp duty concession for new builds that meet livable design specifications; cost decision retained at the developer–purchaser interface rather than removed from the Code |
| Secondary dwellings | State-level approval deregulation | Bypasses the developer contribution mechanism; councils absorb $20,000–$25,000 unfunded infrastructure liability per approved dwelling | Deregulation retained; federal infrastructure co-contribution of $20,000–$25,000 per approved secondary dwelling paid to the relevant local government area |
The structural property of the reformed framework is that each substitute mechanism delivers the same directional outcome as the original against a higher threshold of legal availability and evidential support. The framework does not require the platform to abandon its stated objectives; it adjusts the operational instruments to those that the available evidence base supports.
