--- title: "Salisbury — LGA Conditions Intelligence" url: https://australianproperty.network/lga/sa/salisbury/ date: 2026-08-21 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceSouth Australia Salisbury — LGA Conditions Intelligence Internal Migration Reversing, Overseas-Offset Growth (provisional) ERP 2025 151,019 State South Australia Migration Intensity -1.34% of ERP LGA Code 47140..." word_count: 927 --- # Salisbury — LGA Conditions Intelligence APN LGA Conditions IntelligenceSouth Australia ### Salisbury — LGA Conditions Intelligence Internal Migration Reversing, Overseas-Offset Growth (provisional) ERP 2025151,019 StateSouth Australia Migration Intensity-1.34% of ERP LGA Code47140 1Internal Migration Flow Salisbury recorded negative net internal migration in every one of the four years to 2024-25, and the losses have been widening, not narrowing: -1,468, -1,762, -1,891, -2,031. That makes it the deepest and most consistently worsening internal-migration decline of any LGA built in this series to date — a genuinely different shape from Launceston's roughly flat negative run. Yet Salisbury's population is still growing (151,019 in 2025, up from 147,521 in 2021), because net overseas migration (+7,938 over four years) comfortably exceeds the internal loss (-7,152) — the same overseas-offset mechanism already seen on Darwin, at outer-metropolitan Adelaide scale. Salisbury sits directly adjacent to Playford, this series' first South Australian card and a strongly positive absorber over the same period — two neighbouring northern-Adelaide LGAs pulling in opposite directions. Internal Migration, FY2021-22 to FY2024-25 Arrivals vs Departures (net is negative and widening every year — see note above) 2Growth Trajectory Salisbury's four growth phases decelerate in strict sequence — Boom +13.2%, Stall +8.9%, Recovery +5.1%, Current +2.4% — each phase slower than the one before it, with no inversion or rebound anywhere. No other LGA built in this series shows this clean a monotonic slowdown; every other card's trajectory has at least one phase that breaks the pattern (an inversion, a rebound, or a reversal). ERP has still grown every phase since 2001 (113,849 → 151,019, +32.7% overall), just at a steadily diminishing rate. 2001–2009Boom+13.2% 2009–2016Stall+8.9% 2016–2021Recovery+5.1% 2021–2025Current+2.4% 3Key Conditions APN Bedrock™ (LGA, pop.-weighted)33.4National population-weighted mean 46.99 · ~0.67σ below (see disclosure below) Dwelling Approvals, FY2024-25707ABS 8731.0 · data live through May 2026 Natural Increase, FY2024-25+603Births minus deaths · declining across the four years (+803 to +603) Combined population change in 2024-25 (-2,031 internal + 603 natural + 1,810 overseas = 382 persons, ≈159 implied households at 2.4 persons/household) is far exceeded by the 707 dwelling approvals recorded the same year — a substantial supply surplus relative to modest population growth, though Salisbury's population is still growing, unlike Launceston where a similar approvals-ahead-of-demand pattern coincided with outright decline. The population-components reconciliation checks exact: -7,152 (internal) + 2,712 (natural increase) + 7,938 (overseas) = 3,498, matching the ERP change (147,521 → 151,019, 2021 → 2025) to the last person. 4Demographic Profile (2021 Census) Aged 65+15.5% Aged 0–1419.5% Not in Labour Force29.7% Employed43.7% Low Income (<$400/wk)29.9% High Income (>$2,000/wk)4.4% Owned Outright27.4% Renting29.0% Census Unoccupied Dwelling Rate5.0% IRSD / IRSAD Decile2 / 2 The Census unoccupied dwelling rate counts dwellings recorded as unoccupied on Census night — it is not a market vacancy rate; at 5.0% it is among the lowest recorded in this series. Salisbury's 4.4% high-income share and SEIFA IRSD/IRSAD decile of 2/2 are both new series lows (previous lows were Launceston's 7.0% and 3/3) — the most disadvantaged demographic profile built in this series so far, directly adjoining Playford's younger, less-disadvantaged profile. 5Conditions Statement Salisbury shows the deepest and most consistently worsening internal-migration decline of any LGA built in this series — negative in all four years and widening every year, from -1,468 to -2,031 — yet its population is still growing (147,521 → 151,019 since 2021) because net overseas migration comfortably offsets the internal loss, the same mechanism already seen on Darwin. Its four-phase growth trajectory decelerates in a clean, unbroken sequence (+13.2% to +2.4%) found nowhere else in this series. Dwelling approvals (707) run well ahead of modest population-growth-implied demand, and the population carries this series' most disadvantaged socio-economic profile yet (SEIFA decile 2/2, 4.4% high income, both new series lows) — directly adjacent to Playford, this series' first South Australian card and a strongly positive absorber over the identical four-year window, illustrating how sharply conditions can diverge between neighbouring LGAs. 6Methodology & Disclosed Caveats - **Bedrock figure is population-weighted, not a simple average of suburbs. Readings are on APN Bedrock™ methodology v1.1.** Salisbury's population-eligible localities (141,815 residents across 25 localities) produce a population-weighted mean of **33.4** on node `24110`. A simple, unweighted average gives 33.6 instead — a negligible 0.2-point gap, the smallest found in this series. At 0.67σ below the national population-weighted mean, Salisbury sits in the lower half of this series; Fraser Coast, at 1.15σ below, is the lowest. This card uses the population-weighted figure, consistent with the platform's existing LGA-rollup convention. - **Classification badge is indicative.** "Internal Migration Reversing, Overseas-Offset Growth" reuses the same badge language as Darwin because the underlying mechanism is genuinely the same (negative internal migration more than offset by overseas migration, net population growth) — not a forced relabel. The platform's formal 4-way classification query has not been ratified. - **No crime/safety data included in this version.** APN Sentinel™ crime-pillar data (node 24121/24122) exists at suburb grain nationally but carries open, jurisdiction-specific data-quality caveats not yet resolved platform-wide — deliberately excluded from this card rather than presented with unresolved caveats attached. - **Demographic profile is 2021 Census vintage.** Given Salisbury's continued (modest) population growth since 2021, the 2021 figures likely understate current population and household counts slightly. - **Card format approved 19 August 2026;** the Bedrock population-weighting convention used above was adopted platform-wide in October 2026. 7Sources **Migration & population:** ABS 3218.0 (DS0002/DS0004/DS0006), 2024-25 release · **Dwelling approvals:** ABS 8731.0, LGA small-area data, live through May 2026 · **Census demographic profile:** ABS Census of Population and Housing 2021, TableBuilder Basic · **SEIFA:** ABS SEIFA 2021, released 27 Apr 2023 · **APN Bedrock™:** node 24110, APN Social Capital Index™ — see [node 24110 methodology](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24100/series-24110/).