--- title: "Behind Since COVID: Real Wages, the Governor’s Unemployment Range and Three More Rate Rises" url: https://australianproperty.network/insight/national-insight/national-claim-test/behind-since-covid-real-wages-unemployment-range-rate-rises-claim-test/ date: 2026-09-24 modified: 2026-09-26 lang: en author: "APN National Insight" description: "APN 22000 Series Claim Test: real wages are 4.4% below their December 2019 level after two years of recovery reversed as inflation re-accelerated, and unemployment, at 4.6% in August, is already inside the 4.5 to 5 per cent range the Governor named. A third rate rise by early next year cannot be confirmed from published pricing." categories: - "National Claim Test" tags: - "21210" - "21220" - "21230" - "Unemployment rate" - "wages" word_count: 1411 --- # Behind Since COVID: Real Wages, the Governor’s Unemployment Range and Three More Rate Rises #### Behind Since COVID: Real Wages, the Governor’s Unemployment Range and Three More Rate Rises APN 22000 Series  ·  [22103 National Claim Test](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-22000/series-22100/series-22103/) Reference I-260924-150989  ·  24 September 2026  ·  Significance Medium Companion 23000 output [*Abernethy: Targeting Unemployment While Real Wages Still Lag Risks a Recession*](https://australianproperty.network/opinion/industry-voices/market-practitioners/abernethy-rba-unemployment-real-wages-rate-rises-recession/) (O-260924-150990-MEDIUM) Data anchors [Inflation (21220)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/)  **+2.1049σ** Q2 2026 · position 100.0, ranked against 22 quarters [Interest Rates (21210)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/)  **+1.0049σ** Q1 2026 · position 100.0, ranked against 29 quarters [Employment & GDP (21230)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/)  **+0.5947σ** Q2 2026 Two declared nodes beyond ±1.0σ, one of them beyond ±2.0σ. The wage, price and unemployment figures below are published ABS series, not certified node readings. ##### Scope and Purpose On 23 September 2026, John Abernethy, founder of Clime Investment Management, responded to the Reserve Bank Governor’s remarks of the previous day on unemployment. His argument is carried in the companion Market Practitioners output, [*Abernethy: Targeting Unemployment While Real Wages Still Lag Risks a Recession*](https://australianproperty.network/opinion/industry-voices/market-practitioners/abernethy-rba-unemployment-real-wages-rate-rises-recession/). It rests on three checkable propositions: that wages have not matched inflation since COVID; that the Governor has said unemployment needs to rise; and that markets are pricing enough rate rises to take the cash rate towards 5 per cent. A fourth, that such a path would bring a recession, is a forecast. This output puts the three checkable propositions against the ABS series they rest on and against Australian Property Network’s (APN’s) certified readings, and reports where they hold, where they hold with qualification, and where they cannot be tested. **The short answer is that real wages are still about 4.4% below their pre-COVID level, and unemployment is already inside the range the Governor named.** ##### Proposition One: Wages Have Not Matched Inflation Since COVID Between the December quarter of 2019 and the June quarter of 2026, the Wage Price Index rose 21.2% and the Consumer Price Index rose 26.8%. Deflating one by the other gives a real wage index that stood at 95.6 in June 2026, on a base of 100 in December 2019. **Over the period as a whole, the claim holds: the purchasing power of an hour’s pay is about 4.4% below where it was before COVID.** ##### Real Wages Since December 2019: Wage Price Index Deflated by the CPI 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 December 2019 = 100 Real wage index Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Source: ABS Wage Price Index (6345.0), total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses, seasonally adjusted; ABS Consumer Price Index (6401.0), All groups, Australia, original. Wage index divided by price index, rebased to December quarter 2019 = 100. Dashed line: the December 2019 level, before COVID. The June quarter 2020 peak reflects a temporary fall in the CPI in that quarter, not a rise in wages. The path matters as much as the total. Real wages fell through 2021 and 2022 as inflation ran well ahead of wage growth, and reached their lowest point, 94.8, in the June quarter of 2023. They then recovered for two years: from the December quarter of 2023 to the September quarter of 2025, wages grew faster than prices in each of eight consecutive quarters, and the index climbed back to 96.3 by June 2025. That recovery has since reversed. In the year to June 2026, wages rose 3.2% and prices 3.9%, the third consecutive quarter in which prices outpaced wages. **The claim is right about the period since COVID, and it is right about the past year; it passes over the two years in between in which real wages did rise.** ##### Wages and Prices, Year-Ended Growth, Dec 2020 to Jun 2026 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Wage Price Index Consumer Price Index Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Source: ABS 6345.0 and 6401.0 as above. Percentage change on the same quarter a year earlier. Where the gold line sits above the slate line, real wages are rising. The price side of that comparison is where APN’s certified readings speak directly. [Inflation (21220)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/) reads +2.1049σ for the June quarter, the highest of its 22 full-coverage quarters. The renewed decline in real wages is being driven by prices re-accelerating, not by wage growth slowing: annual wage growth has held between 3.2% and 3.5% for the past two years. ##### Proposition Two: The Governor Has Said Unemployment Needs to Rise The Governor’s remark is on the record. At a Committee for Economic Development of Australia event on 22 September, she said unemployment between 4.5 and 5 per cent would probably take enough heat out of the labour market to ease pressure on inflation ([ABC News](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-22/rba-governor-michele-bullock-interest-rate-increase-predictions/107181326)). She linked the two through costs: a labour market that is too tight raises wages and business costs, which [find their way into prices](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/rba-bullock-unemployment-inflation-productivity.html). **The claim holds in substance; the Governor described easing the upward pressure on wages, not lowering them, and the phrase “to get wage rates down” is the speaker’s.** What the record adds is where unemployment already sits. The ABS put the unemployment rate at 4.6% in August 2026, seasonally adjusted, up from 4.4% in June ([ABS Labour Force](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/aug-2026)). The ABS itself advises caution with the August seasonally adjusted estimate: a new collection model for its supplementary survey may also have removed some ordinary seasonality, and the ABS points to its trend series as the better guide to underlying conditions. On the published figure, **unemployment is already inside the range the Governor named**, and Employment & GDP (21230) reads +0.5947σ for the June quarter, above its norm but well short of the stretch in the price reading. ##### Proposition Three: Three Rises, Towards 5 Per Cent The arithmetic holds. The cash rate target is 4.35%, and three rises of 25 basis points would take it to 5.10%. What cannot be confirmed from the public record is the pricing the speaker describes. ABC News, citing futures pricing, reported about a 90% chance of a rise at the 29 September meeting and roughly even odds of a second in November, with major banks forecasting 4.85% if both occur. **A third rise by early next year is the speaker’s reading of the forward markets; APN has found no published pricing that confirms it, and records it as NIL RETURN.** [Interest Rates (21210)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/) reads +1.0049σ for the March quarter, the highest of its 29 full-coverage quarters, after the increases of February and March 2026. ##### Proposition Four: A Recession This is a forecast, and APN does not test forecasts. What the data can say is what would have to change for it to come true. Employment & GDP (21230) is above its norm, unemployment has risen by two-tenths of a percentage point in two months, and the price reading is the most stretched of the three anchors. **The forecast depends on the rate path and on how far unemployment rises beyond the Governor’s range, and neither is yet known.** ##### APN Analytical Synthesis Of the speaker’s three checkable propositions, one holds in full over the period it names, one holds in substance with a narrower reading of the Governor’s words, and one rests on market pricing that APN cannot confirm. Real wages are 4.4% below their December 2019 level, after two years of recovery that reversed in the past three quarters as inflation re-accelerated. The Governor did name a higher unemployment range, and the published rate is already inside it. **The tension the speaker points to is visible in the data: the Bank is leaning on a labour market in which real wages have already fallen.** Whether wage growth of about 3.2% is itself adding to inflation depends on productivity, which the Governor also named and which this output does not test. The next data will sharpen the question. The Reserve Bank announces its decision on 29 September, and the September quarter Wage Price Index and CPI will show whether the renewed fall in real wages has continued. This synthesis speaks only to the structural conditions the cited data can independently support; it does not constitute a view on future interest rates, unemployment, wages or economic growth, and no such view is expressed or implied. ##### Disclaimer The analysis and information contained in this publication are for general informational and strategic purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, or any other form of professional advice. Australian Property Network is not a licensed financial advisor. Property values and market conditions can go up or down. Before making any property or investment decisions, you must conduct your own thorough research and seek independent professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances.