--- title: "24450 – APN Replacement Cost Gap™" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24450/ date: 2026-08-18 modified: 2026-10-03 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 24450 24400 Series — APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ Certified APN Replacement Cost Gap™ TerminalQ2 2026 N56 Current Z+0.1055σ StatusCertified 1Node Definition The APN Replacement Cost Gap™..." word_count: 779 --- # 24450 – APN Replacement Cost Gap™ APN Codex Node 24450 24400 Series — APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ Certified ### APN Replacement Cost Gap™ TerminalQ2 2026 N56 Current Z+0.1055σ StatusCertified 1Node Definition The APN Replacement Cost Gap™ (24450) reads the pace at which the gap between what dwellings sell for and what it costs to build an equivalent new dwelling is widening or narrowing. It measures the rate of change in that gap, not its size at a point in time. It is a component of the APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ (24400). The concept this node addresses is most directly measured by comparing a dwelling's insured (rebuild) value with its market value; that direct comparison is not the construction used here. This node instead compares the growth rate of national dwelling prices with the growth rate of construction input costs — a related but narrower measure of the same underlying dynamic. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Replacement Cost Growth Spread, Z-Score** Z-Score Construction Current (Q2 2026)+0.1055σ ZpriceNational mean dwelling price growth, year-on-year — currently +0.1474σ ZcostConstruction input-cost growth, year-on-year — currently +0.0668σ The raw spread between the two growth rates (+0.0807 at Q2 2026) is itself standardised against its own history, giving the published reading of +0.1055σ. Standardising twice keeps the index comparable across periods regardless of how volatile each underlying growth rate has been. **Position:** 36.4, ranked against 56 quarters of this node's own history. 3Data Sources Both legs are drawn from Australian Bureau of Statistics releases, standardised against APN's 2011–2025 baseline window. | Leg | Source | Measure | | --- | ------ | ------- | | Market value | ABS, Total Value of Dwellings | National mean price of residential dwellings, year-on-year change | | Replacement cost | ABS 6427.0, Producer Price Indexes | Input price index to house construction, weighted average of six capital cities, year-on-year change | The mean-price growth measure also feeds Average Dwelling Prices (21112). The input-cost measure also feeds Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) and APN Supply Chain Strain Index™ (24430) — the same measure, read once, used in three places. 4Analytical Interpretation At +0.1055σ, the gap between dwelling prices and construction costs is widening at a pace close to its own historical norm. Price growth (+0.1474σ) and construction cost growth (+0.0668σ) are both running near their long-run averages, and the current reading reflects prices growing only modestly faster than costs, not a sharp divergence. This reading is a pace-of-change measure and should be read alongside the size of the gap itself. As a companion context figure, not part of this index, the ratio of the national mean dwelling price to the construction input-cost index currently reads +1.57σ against its own history — the absolute gap between price and cost remains historically wide, even though its rate of widening is unremarkable at present. Because the mean dwelling price series begins in the September quarter of 2011 and year-on-year growth consumes a further four quarters, this node's history runs from the September quarter of 2012. 5Reading History APN Replacement Cost Gap™ (24450) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2026+0.1055σ · position 36.4, ranked against 56 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, +0.1055σ, ranks 36.4 against 56 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.2540σ to +0.7848σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.5298σ in the June quarter 2021, and the lowest −3.2636σ in the December quarter 2022. It enters APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ (24400) with its sign reversed, so a higher reading here lowers that index. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 2012 | −0.3537σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | −0.0181σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.0209σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.2136σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.6146σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.7863σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.7676σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | +0.5077σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | +0.3195σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | +0.2804σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | +0.2707σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | +0.5291σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | +0.6944σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | +0.2264σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.0010σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.1889σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | −0.1393σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | +0.3798σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | +0.6304σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | +0.8213σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.4726σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | +0.1899σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.1719σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.5585σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | −0.8157σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | −1.2225σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | −1.2854σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −1.0080σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | −0.2948σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | +0.3510σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.8015σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +0.4189σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +0.3701σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +0.6045σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +1.0359σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | +1.5298σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | +1.3108σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +0.7175σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −0.5573σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −1.7812σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | −2.8752σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | −3.2636σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | −2.8816σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | −1.6036σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | −0.4022σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +0.3432σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.7574σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.7011σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.5090σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.3743σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.3614σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.2879σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.4396σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.7833σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.7758σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +0.1055σ | Ranked | 6Certification Statement Node 24450 holds Active status. The certified Z-score is +0.1055σ (Q2 2026, N=56). 7Other Components The other components of the APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ (24400). [Node 24410 →APN Residual Land Value (RLV) Gap™The viability gap where total project costs exceed achievable end-profit, the primary mechanism creating paper rezonings.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24410/) [Node 24420 →APN Enabling Infrastructure Index™Measures growth in public-sector delivery of the roads, water, sewerage and electricity connections that new housing developments depend on to proceed.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24420/) [Node 24430 →APN Supply Chain Strain Index™Measures structural labour, materials, and logistics friction within the construction sector.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24430/) Node 24440APN Social Licence & Objection Velocity™Quantifies the rate and intensity of community and regulatory resistance to development approvals. Scope under review. [Node 24460 →APN Development Finance Conditions™Measures growth in the availability of finance for land development and residential construction, reading whether the lending conditions that let projects proceed are loosening or tightening.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24460/) [Parent branch →24400 — APN Future Development Pipeline Index™](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/)