--- title: "24400 – APN Future Development Pipeline Index™" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-04 lang: en author: "" description: "A six-part read on development pipeline pressures: land value gaps, enabling infrastructure, supply chain strain, community resistance, replacement cost gaps, and development finance conditions. The composite is certified on five of its six components; higher readings indicate more friction against the delivery of new housing." word_count: 1011 --- # 24400 – APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ APN Codex Node 2440024400 Series — Future Development Pipeline✓ Certified ### APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ Current Reading 83.6 Ranked against 56 quarters · Z +0.3117σ · as of the quarter ending 30 June 2026 Higher readings indicate more friction against the delivery of new housing 1What This Branch Covers The APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ is scoped as a six-part read on the pressures shaping whether new housing supply actually gets delivered: the residual land value gap between land cost and viable development (RLV Gap), the delivery of major enabling infrastructure (Enabling Infrastructure Index), strain in construction materials and labour supply (Supply Chain Strain), community resistance to development (Social Licence & Objection Velocity), the gap between a property's insured and market value (Replacement Cost Gap), and the availability of credit to fund development (Development Finance Conditions). 2Build Status [24410 →APN Residual Land Value (RLV) Gap™Z **−2.3978σ** · Q2 2026](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24410/) [24420 →APN Enabling Infrastructure Index™Z **−0.1209σ** · Q2 2026](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24420/) [24430 →APN Supply Chain Strain Index™Z **−0.2303σ** · Q2 2026](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24430/) 24440APN Social Licence & Objection Velocity™Scope Under Review [24450 →APN Replacement Cost Gap™Z **+0.1055σ** · Q2 2026](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24450/) [24460 →APN Development Finance Conditions™Z **+0.6242σ** · Q2 2026](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-24000/series-24400/series-24460/) **RLV Gap (24410)** reads the gap between land value and the cost of feasible construction, comparing residential land values against construction costs and dwelling prices. Certified at −2.3978σ (Q2 2026), the lowest reading in its own history to date. **Enabling Infrastructure Index (24420)** was originally scoped as an infrastructure uplift multiplier around Infrastructure Australia's Priority List, a national public pipeline register, supplemented by state infrastructure-department project trackers. Its first-cut construction, built on a different public data source, is certified at −0.1209σ (Q2 2026). Its final scope and data sourcing remain under review. **Supply Chain Strain (24430)** combines three national ABS measures — growth in house-construction input prices (Producer Price Indexes, 6427.0), the job vacancy rate, and dwelling approvals relative to residential construction work done. Certified at −0.2303σ (Q2 2026). **Social Licence & Objection Velocity (24440)** is the weakest-scoped of the six — development-application objection counts exist only patchily inside individual council records, with no consolidated statutory register at any tier. It is to be built from the partial data that does exist, read as a sample rather than a national count, and joins the index when it is. **Replacement Cost Gap (24450)** tracks whether the gap between what dwellings sell for and what they cost to build is widening or narrowing, comparing growth in the ABS national mean dwelling price with growth in house-construction input prices. Certified at +0.1055σ (Q2 2026). **Development Finance Conditions (24460)** tracks year-on-year growth in bank exposure to land development lending and in construction loan commitments. Certified at +0.6242σ (Q2 2026). The index composes on the five certified components at equal weight, each signed so that higher readings mean more friction against delivery. RLV Gap (24410), Enabling Infrastructure (24420), Replacement Cost Gap (24450) and Development Finance Conditions (24460) enter inverted, because in their own direction a higher reading means less friction; Supply Chain Strain (24430) enters as it reads. At the quarter ending 30 June 2026 the index reads +0.3117σ, position 83.6, ranked against 56 quarters of full coverage since September 2012, the highest reading since June 2023. It rose from the March quarter mainly because growth in development finance eased from the top of its record and the replacement cost gap narrowed; both enter inverted, so their easing adds friction. Residual land value feasibility remains at the lowest of its record. Social Licence & Objection Velocity (24440) joins the index when it is built; until then the index composes on five of its six components. **Shared input.** Input-cost growth reaches the index through two components, Supply Chain Strain (24430) and Replacement Cost Gap (24450). With their signs applied the two move together, correlating at 0.42 over the 56 quarters, so input costs carry more than one component’s weight. 3Reading History Position · June 2026500100Less frictionMore friction83.6+0.3117σ · ranked against 56 quartersShaded band: the normal range, 10 to 90APN Future Development Pipeline Index™ (24400) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026+0.3117σ · position 83.6, ranked against 56 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Not ranked (incomplete component coverage)**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, +0.3117σ, ranks 83.6 against 56 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.4007σ to +0.4859σ. The highest ranked reading was +0.8308σ in the March quarter 2019, and the lowest −0.6553σ in the December quarter 2021. Higher readings indicate more friction against the delivery of new housing; four of its five built components enter inverted. Full component coverage begins in September 2012; earlier quarters are drawn dashed and are not ranked. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q1 2011 | −0.0889σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2011 | −0.2166σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2011 | +0.1689σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2011 | −0.1225σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2012 | +0.3374σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2012 | +0.4071σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2012 | +0.4223σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | −0.0407σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.2483σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.2839σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.0976σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.2177σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | −0.1525σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −0.0714σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −0.0098σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | +0.0675σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | −0.2578σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −0.3177σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −0.4223σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.3634σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.2477σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.2360σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +0.0037σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | −0.4541σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | −0.2787σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −0.3790σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | −0.4642σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | −0.0296σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.2380σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.0602σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.1935σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | +0.6136σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.8308σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | +0.7356σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | +0.3129σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.0483σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | −0.1119σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | −0.0565σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +0.1098σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +0.0890σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +0.0188σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −0.2316σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −0.5748σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −0.6553σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −0.5785σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +0.0491σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +0.5496σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +0.7988σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +0.6715σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +0.3594σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +0.0205σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | −0.1678σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | −0.0659σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | −0.0404σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | −0.1476σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | −0.1795σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.0095σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | −0.1203σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | −0.0949σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | −0.1085σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | −0.0823σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +0.3117σ | Ranked | Components over timeEach component is shown at its own latest certified quarter, on one shared scale (−4σ to +4σ) so they can be compared directly. Components marked as entering inverted are drawn as they read; the index reverses their sign when it composes. APN Residual Land Value (RLV) Gap™ (24410)enters inverted−2.3978σ · June 2026 · position 0.0 of 60APN Enabling Infrastructure Index™ (24420)enters inverted−0.1209σ · June 2026 · position 43.9 of 156APN Supply Chain Strain Index™ (24430)−0.2303σ · June 2026 · position 42.4 of 60APN Replacement Cost Gap™ (24450)enters inverted+0.1055σ · June 2026 · position 36.4 of 56APN Development Finance Conditions™ (24460)enters inverted+0.6242σ · June 2026 · position 73.7 of 58**Ranked quarters**Not ranked**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters; model range where indicative)**Current readingShow the component readings | Component | Quarter | Reading | Position | Basis | | --------- | ------- | ------- | -------- | ----- | | APN Residual Land Value (RLV) Gap™ (24410) | June 2026 | −2.3978σ | 0.0 | empirical, 60 quarters | | APN Enabling Infrastructure Index™ (24420) | June 2026 | −0.1209σ | 43.9 | empirical, 156 quarters | | APN Supply Chain Strain Index™ (24430) | June 2026 | −0.2303σ | 42.4 | empirical, 60 quarters | | APN Replacement Cost Gap™ (24450) | June 2026 | +0.1055σ | 36.4 | empirical, 56 quarters | | APN Development Finance Conditions™ (24460) | June 2026 | +0.6242σ | 73.7 | empirical, 58 quarters |