--- title: "21660 – First Home Buyer Lending Share" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21660-credit-appetite-revealed-borrowing-behaviour/ date: 2026-08-18 modified: 2026-10-02 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21660 21600 Series — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis First Home Buyer Lending Share Composite Z +0.0791σ Period Q1 2026 Position 23.1 of 27 qtrs Vintage 2026-Q3..." word_count: 916 --- # 21660 – First Home Buyer Lending Share APN Codex Node 21660 21600 Series — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis ### First Home Buyer Lending Share Composite Z+0.0791σ PeriodQ1 2026 Position23.1 of 27 qtrs Vintage2026-Q3 1Node Definition First Home Buyer Lending Share (21660) measures first home buyers’ share of new lending commitments, one observable response to the cost-of-capital and regulatory settings that Interest Rates (21210) and Banking & Lending Regulation (21350) measure. It combines three readings: the first home buyer share of owner-occupier lending nationally, the same share averaged across the eight states and territories, and the first home buyer share of investor lending. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21660)** Composite Construction — Equal-Weighted Three-Input Average Z21660,t = (Z1,t + Z2,t + Z3,t) ÷ 3 Current (Q1 2026)+0.0791σ Zi,tThe standardised reading of each input at quarter t, each on its own baseline WeightingAll three inputs carry an equal one-third weight, and all three are present in the certified quarter BaselinesNational and state shares: 2011–2025, 61 quarters. Investor share: from Q3 2019, 26 quarters **Metric typology:** equal-weighted three-input composite of first home buyer lending shares. 3Data Sources Tier-1 sovereign source. ABS 5601.0, Lending Indicators, housing finance tables for first home buyer and investor commitments, quarterly. No commercial data dependency exists in the node. 4Input Readings The certified composite for the March quarter 2026 draws on all three inputs, each standardised against its own baseline. | Input | Q1 2026 | Baseline mean | σ | N | Z-score | | ----- | ------- | ------------- | ------- | --- | ------- | | First home buyer share of owner-occupier lending, national | 36.2142% | 31.5180% | 4.8532 | 61 | +0.9677σ | | First home buyer share of owner-occupier lending, state average | eight states | each state’s own | — | 61 | +0.9138σ | | First home buyer share of investor lending | 3.1146% | 4.6759% | 0.9496 | 26 | −1.6441σ | The state average is the unweighted mean of eight state and territory Z-scores, each standardised against that state’s own baseline: | State | Z-score, Q1 2026 | | ----- | ---------------- | | NSW | +0.9704σ | | VIC | +0.7524σ | | QLD | +0.3354σ | | SA | +1.2566σ | | WA | −0.5312σ | | TAS | +1.8695σ | | NT | +0.7131σ | | ACT | +1.9443σ | Node 21660 · InputsInput Z-Scores, March Quarter 2026The gold shape is each input’s Z-score in the March quarter 2026: the first home buyer share of owner-occupier lending nationally +0.9677σ, the same share averaged across the eight states and territories +0.9138σ, and the first home buyer share of investor lending −1.6441σ. The grey dashed ring marks 0σ, each input’s baseline average. The three inputs carry equal weight. The chart below shows the node’s reading for every quarter from March 2011. All three inputs are present from September 2019, when the investor series begins. First Home Buyer Lending Share (21660) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to March 2026+0.0791σ · position 23.1, ranked against 27 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Partial coverage (not every input available)**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe March quarter 2026 reading, +0.0791σ, ranks 23.1 against 27 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.0051σ to +1.4672σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.7308σ in the March quarter 2021, and the lowest −0.0743σ in the September quarter 2025. Before September 2019 the investor input is not yet available; those readings are drawn dashed and are not ranked. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 2002 | −0.5329σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2002 | −0.7388σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2003 | −0.9019σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2003 | −1.0971σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2003 | −1.2230σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2003 | −1.2130σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2004 | −1.2706σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2004 | −1.0782σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2004 | −0.7869σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2004 | −0.7330σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2005 | −0.6716σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2005 | −0.4688σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2005 | −0.3254σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2005 | −0.2603σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2006 | −0.1770σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2006 | −0.2631σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2006 | −0.4149σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2006 | −0.2960σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2007 | −0.4086σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2007 | −0.4378σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2007 | −0.3358σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2007 | −0.2056σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2008 | −0.1688σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2008 | −0.0866σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2008 | +0.3562σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2008 | +0.9356σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2009 | +1.8254σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2009 | +1.9809σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2009 | +1.4286σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2009 | +0.7669σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2010 | −0.0392σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2010 | −0.4473σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2010 | −0.4850σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2010 | −0.5451σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2011 | −0.4863σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2011 | −0.3624σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2011 | −0.2602σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2011 | +0.1755σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2012 | +0.0773σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2012 | −0.0359σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2012 | +0.0773σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2012 | −0.1910σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2013 | −0.2872σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2013 | −0.3390σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2013 | −0.3801σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2013 | −0.5304σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2014 | −0.5065σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2014 | −0.5443σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2014 | −0.5667σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2014 | −0.5934σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2015 | −0.7420σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2015 | −0.7844σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2015 | −0.9729σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2015 | −1.0477σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2016 | −0.8830σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2016 | −0.8936σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2016 | −0.9189σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2016 | −0.9443σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2017 | −1.0046σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2017 | −0.8290σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2017 | −0.3823σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2017 | −0.2331σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2018 | −0.1239σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2018 | −0.1761σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2018 | −0.0827σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2018 | −0.0807σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2019 | −0.0343σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2019 | +0.2188σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2019 | +0.6961σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | +0.6028σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.5728σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +1.0459σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +1.7254σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +1.7280σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +1.7308σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | +1.2951σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | +0.7238σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +0.5836σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +0.3974σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +0.1137σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +0.0125σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +0.1143σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +0.4886σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +0.5915σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +0.5936σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +0.7002σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.6027σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.5897σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.3607σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.0688σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | −0.0430σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | −0.0314σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | −0.0743σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.0235σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.0791σ | Ranked | 5Analytical Interpretation The certified composite of +0.0791σ (Q1 2026) sits close to its baseline average. **Position.** 23.1, ranked against 27 full-coverage quarters from September 2019 to March 2026, which places the reading in the lower third of that record. The composite is near average because its inputs point in opposite directions. First home buyers are taking a larger share of owner-occupier lending than usual, +0.9677σ nationally and +0.9138σ on the state average, while their share of investor lending sits well below its average at −1.6441σ. Western Australia (−0.5312σ) is the only state reading below average; the Australian Capital Territory (+1.9443σ) and Tasmania (+1.8695σ) are the highest. 6Other Components The other five components of Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis (21600). [Node 21610Investor vs. Owner-Occupier BehaviourReads the investor share of new residential lending commitments.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21610-investor-vs-owner-occupier-behaviour/) [Node 21620Market Psychology & Herd BehaviourReads the joint momentum of dwelling price growth and owner-occupier transaction volumes.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21620-market-psychology-herd-behaviour/) [Node 21630Price Volatility & Risk AssessmentReads the volatility of dwelling price movements over a rolling two-year window, independent of their direction.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21630-price-volatility-risk-assessment/) [Node 21640Measured Consumer & Business SentimentReads consumer and business confidence, and how far stated sentiment diverges from owner-occupier transaction activity.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21640-measured-consumer-business-sentiment/) [Node 21680Media & Narrative Sentiment IndexReads how media coverage frames property-relevant policy and economic events, classified by outlet category across ten bias dimensions.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/series-21680/) [Parent branch21600 — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/) 7Certification Statement First Home Buyer Lending Share (21660) holds Active status. The certified composite Z-score is +0.0791σ (Q1 2026), ranked 23.1 against 27 full-coverage quarters, constructed exclusively from Tier-1 ABS data. The investor input’s baseline holds 26 quarters, from Q3 2019, shorter than the standard 2011–2025 window, and is disclosed rather than smoothed over.