--- title: "21640 – Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21640-measured-consumer-business-sentiment/ date: 2026-08-18 modified: 2026-09-27 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21640 21600 Series — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment Terminal Q2 2026 N 60 Current Z −1.3994σ Position 11.7 of 207 qtrs..." word_count: 489 --- # 21640 – Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment APN Codex Node 21640 21600 Series — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis ### Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment TerminalQ2 2026 N60 Current Z−1.3994σPosition11.7 of 207 qtrs 1Node Definition Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment (21640) tracks two independently sourced sentiment indices — consumer confidence and business confidence — and their divergence from owner-occupier transaction volume, a proxy for whether stated sentiment is translating into actual market participation. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Canonical Sentiment-Behaviour Composite, Z-Score** Composite Construction Current (Q2 2026)−1.3994σ Z CSIConsumer Sentiment Index Z-score, −1.9078σ Z BSIBusiness Sentiment Index Z-score, −0.8911σ **Metric typology:** equal-weighted two-index composite (consumer and business confidence), plus a secondary divergence scalar against transaction volume. 3Data Sources Consumer Sentiment Index (OECD, via FRED) and Business Sentiment Index (OECD, via FRED), quarterly, N=60. No commercial data dependency exists in the node. 4The Underlying Readings Consumer Sentiment (CSI)−18.67Z = −1.9078σ Business Sentiment (BSI)3.6667Z = −0.8911σ Sentiment Divergence Scalar−1.3349σvs owner-occupier transaction volume Node 21640 · Parts and ResultSentiment Readings and Divergence, June Quarter 2026Each bar is a Z-score for the June quarter 2026. Combined sentiment, −1.3994σ, is the average of consumer sentiment (−1.9078σ) and business sentiment (−0.8911σ). Sentiment divergence, the darker bar at −1.3349σ, is combined sentiment less owner-occupier transaction volume (−0.0645σ); a negative value means stated sentiment sits below owner-occupier transaction activity. The scale runs from −3σ to +3σ, and the grey line marks 0σ, the baseline average. 5Analytical Interpretation At −1.3994σ, combined sentiment sits well below its 2011–2025 baseline, its lowest reading since the March quarter 2023. Consumer confidence carries most of the movement: its April to June 2026 average of −18.67 is 1.91 standard deviations below the baseline mean of −3.33, while manufacturing business confidence, at 3.67, sits 0.89 standard deviations below its own. Owner-occupier transaction volume is close to its baseline average (−0.0645σ), so the Sentiment Divergence Scalar of −1.3349σ records stated sentiment running materially below actual market participation: reported confidence is weaker than current owner-occupier borrowing activity alone would suggest. **Position.** 11.7, ranked against 207 quarters of the node’s record, from the December quarter 1974. 6Other Components The other five components of Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis (21600). [Node 21610Investor vs. Owner-Occupier BehaviourReads the investor share of new residential lending commitments.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21610-investor-vs-owner-occupier-behaviour/) [Node 21620Market Psychology & Herd BehaviourReads the joint momentum of dwelling price growth and owner-occupier transaction volumes.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21620-market-psychology-herd-behaviour/) [Node 21630Price Volatility & Risk AssessmentReads the volatility of dwelling price movements over a rolling two-year window, independent of their direction.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21630-price-volatility-risk-assessment/) [Node 21660First Home Buyer Lending ShareReads first home buyers' share of new lending commitments, among owner-occupiers nationally and by state, and among investors.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/21660-credit-appetite-revealed-borrowing-behaviour/) [Node 21680Media & Narrative Sentiment IndexReads how media coverage frames property-relevant policy and economic events, classified by outlet category across ten bias dimensions.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/series-21680/) [Parent branch21600 — Market Sentiment & Behavioural Analysis](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21600/) 7Certification Statement Measured Consumer & Business Sentiment (21640) holds Active status. The certified composite Z-score is −1.3994σ (Q2 2026, N=60), and the certified Sentiment Divergence Scalar is −1.3349σ for the same period.