--- title: "21540 – Housing Supply Adequacy" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21500/21540-housing-supply-adequacy/ date: 2026-10-05 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21540 21500 — Construction & Development Pipeline Analysis Certified Housing Supply Adequacy Z-Score+0.3750σPeriodQ1 2026Position61.1 of 55 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Housing Supply Adequacy (21540) measures whether Australia’s dwelling..." word_count: 906 --- # 21540 – Housing Supply Adequacy - APN Codex Node 21540 21500 — Construction & Development Pipeline Analysis Certified ### Housing Supply Adequacy Z-Score+0.3750σPeriodQ1 2026Position61.1 of 55 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Housing Supply Adequacy (21540) measures whether Australia’s dwelling stock is keeping pace with its population: population growth over the year less dwelling-stock growth over the year, in percentage points. Higher readings mean the population is growing faster than the stock of homes, so supply is falling behind. It sits in the Construction & Development Pipeline Analysis series (21500) beside the pipeline nodes, which read how much is being built; this node reads whether that is enough for the population it has to house. The same measure is read for each state and territory in State Supply Adequacy (21830). Known limitations The dwelling count is an ABS modelled stock, benchmarked to the Census and rolled forward with completions less estimated demolitions; estimated resident population is revised at each Census rebasing and recent quarters are preliminary. Both inputs are original series; the change over the year removes their seasonal pattern. The latest quarter is set by population (March 2026), although dwelling counts run to June 2026. The dwelling count begins in September 2011, so the reading begins in September 2012 and is ranked against 55 quarters. The level of persons per dwelling is shown as context but not standardised: it has fallen over time, as households have become smaller, so a standardised level would largely measure the passage of time. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21540)** Z-Score Construction Current (Q1 2026)+0.3750σ PtEstimated resident population, Australia, end of quarter t. Grew 1.43% in the year to March 2026 DtNumber of residential dwellings, Australia, quarter t. Grew 1.38% in the year to March 2026 μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation, 2011–2025 (−0.20 and 0.66 points, 54 quarters) **Metric typology:** single-series Z-score of a growth gap. It is equivalent to the proportional change in persons per dwelling, which stood at 2.433 in March 2026. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Estimated resident population, Australia | ABS National, state and territory population (3101.0), A2133251W | Quarterly | From 1981 (used from September 2011) | | Number of residential dwellings, Australia | ABS Total Value of Dwellings, Table 1, A83728645A | Quarterly | September quarter 2011 to June quarter 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases. No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline. Housing Supply Adequacy (21540) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, September 2012 to March 2026+0.3750σ · position 61.1, ranked against 55 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe March quarter 2026 reading, +0.3750σ, ranks 61.1 against 55 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.9804σ to +1.2733σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.9941σ in the September quarter 2023, and the lowest −2.4194σ in the June quarter 2021. The 2020 and 2021 readings record the closure of the international border, when population growth fell close to zero while dwellings continued to be completed. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 2012 | +0.8675σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | +0.8731σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.8132σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.7802σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.6891σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.5424σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.4616σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | +0.2802σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | +0.0005σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | −0.2095σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | −0.4667σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −0.6688σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −0.6855σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.8051σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.6791σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.6866σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | −0.6097σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | −0.4811σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | −0.4381σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −0.2924σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | −0.2393σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | −0.2463σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.2294σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.2538σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | −0.2739σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | −0.2316σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | −0.2488σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −0.2636σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | −0.1365σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.0588σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | −0.0660σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | −0.2839σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | −1.0972σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | −1.6835σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | −2.3324σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −2.4194σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −2.2067σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −1.5992σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −0.7202σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −0.0764σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +0.8705σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +1.3470σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +1.6420σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +1.8891σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +1.9941σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.8012σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +1.5975σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +1.1628σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.7636σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.5595σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.4187σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.4420σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.4756σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.4179σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.3750σ | Ranked | Z-Score+0.3750σQ1 2026Position61.1ranked against 55 quartersPopulation growth1.43%year to March 2026Dwelling growth1.38%year to March 2026Gap+0.05 pointsbaseline average −0.20Persons per dwelling2.433context 5Analytical Interpretation At +0.3750σ (Q1 2026), the population grew slightly faster than the dwelling stock over the year to March 2026 (1.43% against 1.38%), where over 2011–2025 the stock usually grew faster, by 0.20 points on average. **Position.** 61.1, ranked against 55 quarters since September 2012. The gap reached its highest, +1.11 points, in the September quarter 2023, when overseas migration resumed after the border reopened, and its lowest, −1.78 points, in the June quarter 2021, while the border was closed. It has narrowed since 2023 and has been close to zero through 2025. Across the states, supply is furthest behind population in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, and furthest ahead in the ACT, South Australia and Tasmania (State Supply Adequacy, 21830). 6Related Nodes The other components of Construction & Development Pipeline Analysis (21500), the state counterpart and the parent series. [21510 →Building Approvals & CommencementsReads dwelling approvals, dwelling commencements and the gap between them at the front end of the residential construction pipeline.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21500/21510-building-approvals-commencements/)[21520 →New Housing Supply ForecastsReads dwellings under construction together with the value of residential building work yet to be done and residential work completed each quarter.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21500/21520-new-housing-supply-forecasts/)[21530 →Construction Finance & CapacityReads the financial capacity of the construction sector from APRA land-development lending limits and business lending for construction, net of construction insolvencies.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21500/21530-construction-finance-capacity/)[21830 →State Supply AdequacyThe same measure for each state and territory, against its own history. Q1 2026: −1.0448σ (South Australia) to +0.9625σ (Northern Territory).](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21800/21830-state-supply-adequacy/)[Parent series →21500 — Construction & Development Pipeline Analysis](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21500/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21540 — Housing Supply Adequacy — Certified Both inputs are sourced from Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS)- The Z-score of +0.3750σ (Q1 2026) is derived directly from the inputs against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 55 quarters- The modelled dwelling stock, population revisions and the short history are disclosed- No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified:** 5 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21540 Series21500 StatusCertified Z-Score+0.3750σ Position61.1 of 55 qtrs PeriodQ1 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Baseline μ−0.20 pts Baseline σ0.66 Baseline N54