--- title: "21290 – Construction Completion Lag" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21290/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-07 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21290 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified Construction Completion Lag μ (Q2) 9.3283 σ (Q2) 3.1333 N (Q2) 41 Terminal Q2 2026 Sustained Z +2.0205σ Position 90.4..." word_count: 1790 --- # 21290 – Construction Completion Lag - APN Codex Node 21290 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified ### Construction Completion Lag μ (Q2)9.3283 σ (Q2)3.1333 N (Q2)41 TerminalQ2 2026 Sustained Z+2.0205σ Position90.4 of 84 qtrs 1 Node Definition Node 21290 measures how long the stock of dwellings under construction is taking to clear. It divides the number of dwellings under construction by the number completed in the quarter and multiplies by three, giving the months of work the pipeline is carrying at the current rate of completion. A longer reading means the pipeline is clearing more slowly relative to its size. Construction Completion Lag (21290) is a contributing input to Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200), carrying a weighting of 0.05 — the smallest weighting in the composite, alongside Household Finance & Spending (21240). Construction Completion Lag (21290) measures how long the build pipeline takes to clear. It does not measure the cost of building, which is the domain of Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260), nor the volume of approvals or forecast supply, which sits in the 21500 series (New Housing Supply Forecasts, 21520). Name and measure — September 2026This node was previously titled Grid Connection Lead-Times and described as comparing electricity grid-connection data with the ABS construction pipeline. Its reading has been derived from ABS Building Activity data alone: no national series of dwelling grid-connection times is published in Australia, and the node has never carried one. It was renamed on 20 September 2026 to describe what it measures. Its formula was simplified the same day. The earlier version subtracted a nine-month constant and set any result below zero to zero, which placed roughly half of all quarters at the same value and distorted the comparison with history. The reading is now the unadjusted months of pipeline, compared against the same quarter of the year in prior years. Every reading on this page is restated on that basis. 2 Metric Definition / Composite Construction **Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21290) — months of pipeline, standardised by quarter of the year** Months of Pipeline, Seasonal Baseline Current (Q2 2026)+2.0205σ mMonths of pipeline: ABS Building Activity Table 76 dwellings under construction divided by Table 37 dwelling unit completions in the quarter, times three, both Total Sectors, Original (15.6590 for Q2 2026) μ, σMean and standard deviation of months of pipeline, estimated separately for each quarter of the year over September 1984 to September 2025. Q1 μ 10.8042 σ 3.9938 n 41; Q2 μ 9.3283 σ 3.1333 n 41; Q3 μ 9.4354 σ 3.0650 n 42; Q4 μ 8.3917 σ 2.8716 n 41 Q2 2026 inputsABS Table 37 dwelling unit completions = 47,653; ABS Table 76 dwellings under construction = 248,733 Unlike most nodes in this series, where the certified Z-score is calculated node-side from raw baseline values, the Z-score of Construction Completion Lag (21290) is calculated upstream and passed through to the node as a single precomputed composite reading — the standardisation work happens before the figure reaches the node level, rather than being recomputed here. The underlying input series carries full weight within the node, which in turn contributes at 0.05 weighting into the 21200 AMVI composite. 3 Data Sources Construction Completion Lag (21290) draws on two series from a single Tier-1 institutional source, ABS Building Activity, Australia, combined as described above. Both are Total Sectors, Original, from the June quarter 2026 release, which also revised the March quarter. | Input | Source | Reference | Jun 2026 Quarter | Mar 2026 Quarter | | ----- | ------ | --------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | Dwelling unit completions | ABS | Building Activity, Table 37, series A83801977V, Total Sectors, Original | 47,653 | 38,808 | | Dwellings under construction | ABS | Building Activity, Table 76, series A83801978W, Total Sectors, Original | 248,733 | 244,132 | **Baseline.** Estimated over September 1984 to September 2025, separately for each quarter of the year, on sample standard deviations. The node carries a weighting of 0.05 in the 21200 AMVI composite. 4 Baseline Statistics / Historical Record **Baseline:** estimated separately for each quarter of the year, September 1984 to September 2025  ·  **Terminal:** Q2 2026 Why the baseline is seasonalThe measure this node reads is months of pipeline: the ratio of dwellings under construction to completions in the quarter, times three. Completions are reported on an original basis and fall sharply in every March quarter, while the stock under construction does not, so the ratio rises every March for reasons that have nothing to do with how quickly the pipeline is clearing. Across the baseline window the pipeline averages 10.80 months in March quarters against 8.39 months in December quarters. A single all-quarter baseline therefore rendered every March quarter as an extreme reading by construction. From 20 September 2026 the mean and standard deviation are estimated separately for each quarter of the year, so a reading is compared against the same quarter in prior years. Standardised on that basis the node’s history has a mean of 0.0000 and a standard deviation of 0.99 across the baseline window. Every reading on this page is restated accordingly. Mean (μ), June quarters9.3283Q1 10.8042 · Q3 9.4354 · Q4 8.3917 Std Dev (σ), June quarters3.1333Q1 3.9938 · Q3 3.0650 · Q4 2.8716 N per quarter4142 for September; 165 in total Terminal PeriodQ2 2026 Sustained Z-Score+2.0205σ Months of pipeline15.6590 months **Quarterly record, Jun 2025 – Jun 2026, on the current basis:** | Quarter | Z-Score | | ------- | ------- | | Jun 2025 | +2.248σ | | Sep 2025 | +1.875σ | | Dec 2025 | +2.214σ | | Mar 2026 | +2.020σ | | Jun 2026 | +2.020σ | Construction Completion Lag (21290) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026+2.0205σ · position 90.4, ranked against 84 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, +2.0205σ, ranks 90.4 against 84 quarters and sits above the normal range of −0.0495σ to +2.0204σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.3923σ in the June quarter 2023, and the lowest −0.4280σ in the March quarter 2002. The node is measured against a seasonal baseline, each quarter against the same quarter of earlier years. Its ranking population runs from March 2002, before the chart window, and the quarters before March 2011 are listed in the data table. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q1 2002 | −0.4280σ | Ranked | | Q3 2002 | −0.0109σ | Ranked | | Q1 2003 | −0.3398σ | Ranked | | Q3 2003 | −0.0285σ | Ranked | | Q1 2004 | −0.0905σ | Ranked | | Q3 2004 | −0.1293σ | Ranked | | Q4 2004 | +0.2970σ | Ranked | | Q1 2005 | −0.0901σ | Ranked | | Q1 2006 | −0.1032σ | Ranked | | Q2 2006 | −0.0816σ | Ranked | | Q3 2006 | +0.2983σ | Ranked | | Q1 2007 | −0.2394σ | Ranked | | Q2 2007 | −0.0586σ | Ranked | | Q3 2007 | +0.2096σ | Ranked | | Q1 2008 | +0.2613σ | Ranked | | Q2 2008 | +0.5850σ | Ranked | | Q3 2008 | +0.5447σ | Ranked | | Q1 2009 | +0.1241σ | Ranked | | Q3 2009 | −0.0101σ | Ranked | | Q1 2010 | +0.2839σ | Ranked | | Q2 2010 | +0.0476σ | Ranked | | Q3 2010 | +0.3699σ | Ranked | | Q1 2011 | −0.0054σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | +0.1277σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | +0.2785σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | +0.5639σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | +0.6186σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | +0.2180σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | +0.4961σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | +0.5630σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.6236σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.6508σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.5511σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | +0.6805σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | +0.8444σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | +0.6483σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | +0.3674σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | +0.7001σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | +0.5491σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | +0.6437σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | +0.6589σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | +1.0920σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | +1.5603σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | +0.6415σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +1.0761σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | +0.7026σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | +0.6962σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | +0.8835σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.8781σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | +1.1904σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | +1.0880σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | +0.8958σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.7184σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | +1.0100σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.9261σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | +0.7486σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | +0.9151σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | +0.6552σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | +0.8392σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +0.7461σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +0.9008σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +1.1411σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +1.0621σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | +1.3388σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | +1.8022σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +2.3138σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +2.1628σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +2.3082σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +2.1877σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +2.2815σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +1.9785σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +2.3923σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +1.9918σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.7855σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +1.9743σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +1.5638σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +1.5441σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +1.5569σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +1.6445σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +2.2476σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +1.8748σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +2.2143σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +2.0202σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +2.0205σ | Ranked | On the current basis the five quarters to June 2026 read +2.248σ, +1.875σ, +2.214σ, +2.020σ and +2.020σ. All five sit well above the average for their own quarter of the year, and the reading has held above 1.5 standard deviations in every quarter since September 2021, without a sustained direction within that band. The March quarter 2026 reads +2.020σ on the June 2026 release, which revised that quarter’s completions and dwellings under construction. 5 Analytical Interpretation The certified reading of +2.0205σ (Q2 2026) indicates the construction pipeline clearing materially more slowly than is usual for a June quarter: it carried 15.7 months of work at the June 2026 rate of completion, against a June-quarter average of 9.3 months since 1984. **Position.** 90.4, ranked against 84 quarters of the node’s record, with 75 of the 83 comparable quarters below it. The reading has held above 1.5 standard deviations in every quarter since the September quarter 2021. Because a pipeline carrying more months of work implies longer build durations for projects entering it, the node is relevant to holding-cost and sequencing assumptions in development feasibility work. This node should not be read as a construction-input-cost signal — that role sits with Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) — nor as a signal of approval volumes or new-supply forecasting, which sits with New Housing Supply Forecasts (21520) in the separate 21500 series. 6 Related 24000-Series Readings | Reading | Node | Relationship | | ------- | ---- | ------------ | | Work In Progress | 24743 | Reads the same ABS count of dwellings under construction (Total Sectors) that forms the numerator of this node’s months of pipeline | | APN Investment Conditions Index™ | 24700 | Its Supply Pipeline Conditions branch (24740) holds the reading above | This node is not itself an input to any 24000-series instrument. The reading above draws on one of its source series, so it moves with part of this node’s input. 7Other Components The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). [Node 21210Interest RatesReads the cost of capital from the cash rate, retail lending rates, the two-year forward bond yield and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income multiples.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/) [Node 21220InflationReads the inflation environment from headline, housing and trimmed-mean consumer prices, house construction producer prices and consumer inflation expectations.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/) [Node 21230Employment & GDPReads the strength of the labour market and of output growth, from Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) at equal weight.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) [Node 21240Household Finance & SpendingReads household financial position from the gap between investor and first home buyer lending growth, the gap between discretionary and non-discretionary spending, and the share of high debt-to-income lending.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21240/) [Node 21250Migration TrendsReads net overseas migration to Australia.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21250/) [Node 21260Construction Costs & Supply ChainReads construction cost and supply-chain pressure from the gap between output and input producer prices by state, input price growth, dwelling approvals volume and construction companies entering external administration.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21260/) [Node 21270Credit VelocityReads the pace of new credit origination from new loan commitments, the share of lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, and lenders' interest spreads and serviceability settings.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21270/) [Node 21280Business InsolvencyReads companies entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, with construction and all other industries as separate components, from ASIC insolvency statistics.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/) [Parent index21200 — Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/) 8 Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21290 — Construction Completion Lag — Certified Both underlying data inputs are ABS Building Activity, Australia series, Total Sectors, Original: Table 37 dwelling unit completions (A83801977V) and Table 76 dwellings under construction (A83801978W) - The certified composite Z-score of +2.0205σ (Q2 2026, the June 2026 quarter) is 15.6590 months of pipeline standardised against the baseline for June quarters (μ 9.3283, σ 3.1333, n 41), estimated over September 1984 to September 2025 - The five-quarter record shown on this page is computed from the published ABS series for each quarter, not interpolated or estimated - The node's Z-score is calculated upstream of the node and passed through as a precomputed composite reading, a methodology distinct from the standard node-side calculation used elsewhere in the series - No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified:** 7 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 institutional (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21290 Series21200 StatusCertified BaselineSeasonal μ (Q2)9.3283 σ (Q2)3.1333 N (Q2)41 Weighting (21200)0.05 Certified Z+2.0205σ Reference PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 ##### Related 24000-Series Readings Work In Progress (24743), in the Supply Pipeline Conditions branch (24740) of the APN Investment Conditions Index™ (24700), reads the same dwellings-under-construction series as this node’s numerator.