--- title: "21280 – Business Insolvency" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-04 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21280 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified Business Insolvency Composite Z +0.9921σ Period Q2 2026 Position 78.9 of 20 qtrs Components 2 Vintage 2026-Q3 1Node Definition Business..." word_count: 1508 --- # 21280 – Business Insolvency - APN Codex Node 21280 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified ### Business Insolvency Composite Z+0.9921σ PeriodQ2 2026 Position78.9 of 20 qtrs Components2 Vintage2026-Q3 1Node Definition Business Insolvency (21280) measures the rate at which Australian companies enter external administration or have a controller appointed for the first time, standardised against the node’s recent history. It combines two components, Construction Insolvency (21281) and Insolvency Outside Construction (21282), each carrying half of the node’s weight, so construction, the industry with the largest single share of company insolvencies, is read separately from the rest of the economy. Business Insolvency is a contributing input to the Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200), carrying a weighting of 0.10. The node records business failures that have already happened; it is a lagging reading of business-sector stress, not a forecast. It does not measure household financial stress, which is the domain of Household Finance & Spending (21240). Construction insolvency also enters Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260), where it is read as one sign of supply-chain pressure alongside producer prices and dwelling approvals. 2Composite Construction **Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21280)** Composite Construction — Equal-Weighted Two-Component Average Z21280,t = (Z21281,t + Z21282,t) ÷ 2 Current (Q2 2026)+0.9921σ Z21281,tConstruction Insolvency, the construction companies count standardised against its baseline: +1.0300σ in Q2 2026 Z21282,tInsolvency Outside Construction, the count for all other industries standardised against its baseline: +0.9543σ in Q2 2026 WeightingEach component carries an equal one-half weight, and both are present in the certified quarter Known limitation ASIC changed how it records a company’s industry in 2021. Until the end of April 2021 industry was recorded at the broadest level only, and a large share of companies fell into a general Other Services category; from mid-2021 far more are assigned to a specific industry. Construction’s share of all companies entering external administration rose from about one in five to more than one in four across the change, while the share recorded under Other Services fell from more than a third to about one in eight. Counts by industry before the September quarter 2021 are therefore not comparable with later counts. Both components use a baseline of the 18 quarters from September 2021 to December 2025, shorter than the platform’s standard baseline, and the node’s position is ranked only against quarters on the current coding. **Metric typology:** equal-weighted two-component composite of quarterly company insolvency counts. 3The Two Components Each component is independently certified and has its own page. [Node 21281Construction InsolvencyWeight 0.50 · Z +1.0300σ (Q2 2026). Reads construction companies entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, from ASIC insolvency statistics.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/21281-construction-insolvency/) [Node 21282Insolvency Outside ConstructionWeight 0.50 · Z +0.9543σ (Q2 2026). Reads companies in all industries other than construction entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, from ASIC insolvency statistics.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/21282-insolvency-outside-construction/) Node 21280 · ComponentsComponent Z-Scores, June Quarter 2026Each bar is a component’s certified Z-score for the June quarter 2026: Construction Insolvency (21281) +1.0300σ and Insolvency Outside Construction (21282) +0.9543σ. The grey vertical line marks 0σ, each component’s baseline average. The two components carry equal weight, and their average is the node’s reading of +0.9921σ. | Component | Source | June quarter 2026 | Baseline mean | σ | N | Z-score | | --------- | ------ | ----------------- | ------------- | ------- | --- | ------- | | Construction Insolvency (21281) | ASIC insolvency statistics, Series 1 and 1A | 902 | 659.0 | 235.9 | 18 | +1.0300σ | | Insolvency Outside Construction (21282) | ASIC insolvency statistics, Series 1 and 1A | 2,638 | 1,898.9 | 774.5 | 18 | +0.9543σ | Both components count companies entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, from ASIC’s insolvency statistics: its current series from July 2021 and its historical series for July 2013 to June 2021, which agree within three companies a month where they overlap. Monthly counts are summed to calendar quarters. ASIC counts individual companies, not corporate groups. Tier-1 statutory regulator source; no commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The current certified reading of Business Insolvency (21280) is for the June quarter 2026. The chart shows the composite for every quarter from September 2013, with both components measured against the same baseline. Business Insolvency (21280) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, September 2013 to June 2026+0.9921σ · position 78.9, ranked against 20 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Before the recorded break (not ranked)**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current reading**Recorded breakThe June quarter 2026 reading, +0.9921σ, ranks 78.9 against 20 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −1.3899σ to +1.2346σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.2401σ in the June quarter 2025, and the lowest −1.5682σ in the September quarter 2021. Quarters before the July 2021 change in ASIC industry coding are drawn dashed: both components are measured against the same baseline, but the industry split is not comparable across the change, so they are not ranked. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 2013 | +0.0632σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2013 | −0.2912σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2014 | −0.7564σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2014 | −0.5091σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2014 | −0.4155σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2014 | −0.8165σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2015 | −0.8239σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2015 | −0.1648σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2015 | +0.0179σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2015 | −0.4094σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2016 | −0.7191σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2016 | −0.5945σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2016 | −0.5813σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2016 | −0.8983σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2017 | −0.9909σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2017 | −0.6081σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2017 | −0.7034σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2017 | −1.0081σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2018 | −0.9967σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2018 | −0.7851σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2018 | −0.6671σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2018 | −0.7318σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2019 | −0.9469σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2019 | −0.6790σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2019 | −0.3744σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2019 | −0.6105σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2020 | −1.0496σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2020 | −1.5703σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2020 | −1.7450σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2020 | −1.5708σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2021 | −1.6642σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2021 | −1.3714σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2021 | −1.5682σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −1.3748σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −1.5259σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −0.9576σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | −0.4075σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | −0.7952σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | −0.6403σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | −0.2584σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +0.1451σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | −0.0274σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.1750σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.7402σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +1.0463σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +1.2340σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.7932σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +1.2401σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.9420σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +1.2395σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.5899σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +0.9921σ | Ranked | Components over timeEach component is shown at its own latest certified quarter, on one shared scale (−3σ to +3σ) so they can be compared directly. The dashed rule marks the July 2021 change in ASIC industry coding; quarters before it are not ranked. Construction Insolvency (21281)+1.0300σ · June 2026 · position 84.2 of 20Insolvency Outside Construction (21282)+0.9543σ · June 2026 · position 73.7 of 20**Ranked quarters**Not ranked**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters; model range where indicative)**Current readingShow the component readings | Component | Quarter | Reading | Position | Basis | | --------- | ------- | ------- | -------- | ----- | | Construction Insolvency (21281) | June 2026 | +1.0300σ | 84.2 | empirical, 20 quarters | | Insolvency Outside Construction (21282) | June 2026 | +0.9543σ | 73.7 | empirical, 20 quarters | Composite Z-Score+0.9921σQ2 2026 Position78.9ranked against 20 quarters Components Present2 of 2 Companies, June quarter 20263,540902 construction, 2,638 other AMVI Contribution Weight0.10 Vintage2026-Q3 5Analytical Interpretation At +0.9921σ (Q2 2026), companies are entering external administration at a rate about one standard deviation above the September 2021 to December 2025 baseline. **Position.** 78.9, ranked against 20 quarters on the current industry coding; 15 of the other 19 quarters since September 2021 read below the current quarter. The two components sit close together, construction at +1.0300σ and the rest of the economy at +0.9543σ, so the elevated reading is broad-based rather than confined to building. The composite has read above its baseline average in every quarter from March 2024, after sitting well below it through 2021 and early 2022; it eased to +0.5899σ in the March quarter 2026 before rising again in June. Business Insolvency (21280) should not be read as a household-stress signal, which is the role of Household Finance & Spending (21240), or as a construction-cost signal, which is the domain of Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260). 6Other Components The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). [Node 21210Interest RatesReads the cost of capital from the cash rate, retail lending rates, the two-year forward bond yield and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income multiples.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/) [Node 21220InflationReads the inflation environment from headline, housing and trimmed-mean consumer prices, house construction producer prices and consumer inflation expectations.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/) [Node 21230Employment & GDPReads the strength of the labour market and of output growth, from Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) at equal weight.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) [Node 21240Household Finance & SpendingReads household financial position from the gap between investor and first home buyer lending growth, the gap between discretionary and non-discretionary spending, and the share of high debt-to-income lending.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21240/) [Node 21250Migration TrendsReads net overseas migration to Australia.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21250/) [Node 21260Construction Costs & Supply ChainReads construction cost and supply-chain pressure from the gap between output and input producer prices by state, input price growth, dwelling approvals volume and construction companies entering external administration.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21260/) [Node 21270Credit VelocityReads the pace of new credit origination from new loan commitments, the share of lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, and lenders' interest spreads and serviceability settings.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21270/) [Node 21290Construction Completion LagReads how long the pool of dwellings under construction is taking to clear, comparing the stock under construction against the rate at which dwellings are completed.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21290/) [Parent index21200 — Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21280 — Business Insolvency — Certified Both components are sourced from a Tier-1 statutory regulator (ASIC insolvency statistics) and are independently certified - The composite Z-score of +0.9921σ (Q2 2026) is the equal-weighted average of the two certified component readings, not manually entered or estimated - Both component baselines hold 18 quarters, September 2021 to December 2025, because of a change in how ASIC records industry in 2021; this shorter baseline is disclosed - The position is ranked only against quarters recorded on the current industry coding - No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified:** 14 September 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 statutory regulator (ASIC) ##### Node Parameters Node21280 Series21200 StatusCertified Composite Z+0.9921σ Position78.9 of 20 qtrs PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q3 Components2 Weighting (21200)0.10