--- title: "21260 – Construction Costs & Supply Chain" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21260/ date: 2026-01-16 modified: 2026-10-04 lang: en author: "" description: "APN Codex Node 21260 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified Construction Costs & Supply Chain Composite Z+1.0353σ PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q3 Components Present3 of 3 Position100.0 empirical 1 Node Definition Node..." word_count: 1651 --- # 21260 – Construction Costs & Supply Chain - APN Codex Node 21260 21200 Series — Economic Factors Certified ### Construction Costs & Supply Chain Composite Z+1.0353σ PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q3 Components Present3 of 3 Position100.0 empirical 1 Node Definition Node 21260 measures construction cost pressure and supply chain conditions as a contributing input to the 21200 AMVI composite, carrying a weight of 0.10. It is built from a three-component composite spanning producer price movements in construction inputs and outputs, escalation and building approvals volume, and construction-sector insolvency activity. All three components are present in every quarter from September 2013. The insolvency component is ASIC's quarterly count of construction companies entering external administration for the first time. Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) does not measure the volume or timing of new dwelling supply itself; that is the domain of New Housing Supply Forecasts (21520), a separate node within the 21500 series. 2 Metric Definition — Composite Construction **Primary metric: Node Composite Z-Score (Z21260)** Composite Construction — Equal Component Weighting Current (Q2 2026)+1.0353σ Z i,tThe standardised reading of an input component (construction PPI spread, PPI escalation and approvals, or insolvency activity) at quarter t w iEach of the three components carries an equal one-third weight; the escalation-and-approvals component is split evenly across its two series Q2 2026 coverageAll three components are present, so the certified composite carries the node's full weight Architectural Independence — Node 21520 Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) measures cost and supply-chain pressure on the construction sector itself — what it costs to build and how strained the delivery chain is. New Housing Supply Forecasts (21520) measures a different question: how much new housing supply is forecast to actually arrive. Zero analytical redundancy exists between the two nodes. 3 Data Sources Three components are drawn from two Tier-1 institutional sources: the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Producer Price Indexes and Building Approvals) and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (insolvency statistics). | Input | Description | Source | Weight | Q2 2026 Status | | ----- | ----------- | ------ | ------ | -------------- | | Output/input spread | State-level producer price output/input spread, construction sector (mean of six states) | ABS Producer Price Indexes | 0.333 | Present | | Construction insolvencies | Construction companies entering external administration for the first time, quarterly count | ASIC insolvency statistics (Series 1) | 0.333 | Present | | Escalation and approvals | Producer price escalation (input PPI, year on year) and building approvals volume (rolling twelve months) | ABS Producer Price Indexes; ABS Building Approvals | 0.167 each | Present | **Note on the insolvency series.** The insolvency component is ASIC's quarterly count of construction companies entering external administration for the first time, joined to its predecessor series from September 2013. ASIC changed how it records a company’s industry in 2021, so counts before the September quarter 2021 are not comparable with later ones, and the input’s baseline uses the 18 quarters from September 2021 to December 2025. 4 What's Certified So Far Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) was first certified on 5 August 2026, and its current certified reading is for the June quarter 2026. The chart below shows the node's reading for every quarter from March 2011. All inputs are present in every quarter from September 2013. ASIC changed how it records a company’s industry in 2021, so the construction insolvency input is comparable only from the September quarter 2021; the 20 full-coverage quarters from September 2021 to June 2026 are the history the current reading is compared with. Construction Costs & Supply Chain (21260) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026+1.0353σ · position 100.0, ranked against 20 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Not ranked (partial coverage, or before the recorded break)**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current reading**Recorded breakThe June quarter 2026 reading, +1.0353σ, is the highest of the 20 ranked quarters (position 100.0) and sits above the normal range of +0.0578σ to +0.7455σ. Quarters before the July 2021 change in ASIC industry coding are drawn dashed: the construction insolvency input is not comparable across it, so they are not ranked. The node's history runs back to September 1984; the chart starts at March 2011. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 1984 | +0.0005σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1984 | +0.0099σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1985 | −0.0501σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1985 | −0.0438σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1985 | −0.0316σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1985 | −0.0518σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1986 | −0.0883σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1986 | −0.2097σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1986 | −0.2949σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1986 | −0.3095σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1987 | −0.3427σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1987 | −0.3417σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1987 | −0.3179σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1987 | −0.2787σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1988 | −0.1477σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1988 | +0.0070σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1988 | +0.1429σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1988 | +0.2333σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1989 | +0.2606σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1989 | +0.2358σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1989 | +0.1346σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1989 | +0.0179σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1990 | −0.0965σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1990 | −0.1913σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1990 | −0.2562σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1990 | −0.3138σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1991 | −0.3441σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1991 | −0.4198σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1991 | −0.4537σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1991 | −0.4853σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1992 | −0.4962σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1992 | −0.4386σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1992 | −0.3689σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1992 | −0.2967σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1993 | −0.2105σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1993 | −0.1221σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1993 | −0.0536σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1993 | −0.0044σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1994 | −0.0104σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1994 | −0.0315σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1994 | −0.0288σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1994 | −0.0367σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1995 | −0.0839σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1995 | −0.1749σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1995 | −0.3258σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1995 | −0.4686σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1996 | −0.5608σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1996 | −0.6069σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1996 | −0.5947σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1996 | −0.5529σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1997 | −0.4977σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1997 | −0.4438σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1997 | −0.4048σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1997 | −0.3619σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1998 | −0.3230σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1998 | −0.3094σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1998 | −1.0468σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1998 | −1.0133σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1999 | −1.0023σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1999 | −0.9906σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1999 | −0.8969σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1999 | −0.7504σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2000 | −0.6180σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2000 | −0.5963σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2000 | −0.7849σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2000 | −0.9119σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2001 | −1.0812σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2001 | −1.1456σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2001 | −0.9892σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2001 | −0.8606σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2002 | −0.7378σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2002 | −0.6396σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2002 | −0.5909σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2002 | −0.5524σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2003 | −0.5120σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2003 | −0.4876σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2003 | −0.4509σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2003 | −0.4282σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2004 | −0.3947σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2004 | −0.3641σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2004 | −0.3906σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2004 | −0.3780σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2005 | −0.3759σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2005 | −0.4228σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2005 | −0.4240σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2005 | −0.4441σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2006 | −0.4800σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2006 | −0.4893σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2006 | −0.5049σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2006 | −0.4924σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2007 | −0.4585σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2007 | −0.4458σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2007 | −0.4625σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2007 | −0.3849σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2008 | −0.3023σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2008 | −0.2857σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2008 | −0.3026σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2008 | −0.4188σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2009 | −0.5625σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2009 | −0.6093σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2009 | −0.6086σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2009 | −0.5623σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2010 | −0.4763σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2010 | −0.4074σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2010 | −0.3182σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2010 | −0.2917σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2011 | −0.3115σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2011 | −0.3753σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2011 | −0.4449σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2011 | −0.5294σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2012 | −0.5740σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2012 | −0.6172σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2012 | −0.6422σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2012 | −0.6081σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2013 | −0.4655σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2013 | −0.4121σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2013 | −0.5673σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2013 | −0.5929σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2014 | −0.6535σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2014 | −0.4797σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2014 | −0.4298σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2014 | −0.4461σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2015 | −0.3548σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2015 | −0.1418σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2015 | −0.0426σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2015 | −0.1646σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2016 | −0.2542σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2016 | −0.2891σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2016 | −0.2493σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2016 | −0.2935σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2017 | −0.3386σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2017 | −0.3270σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2017 | −0.3156σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2017 | −0.3496σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2018 | −0.3101σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2018 | −0.2044σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2018 | −0.2863σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2018 | −0.3535σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2019 | −0.5852σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2019 | −0.6275σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2019 | −0.5832σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2019 | −0.6476σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2020 | −0.8373σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2020 | −1.0459σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2020 | −1.0189σ | Before recorded break | | Q4 2020 | −0.7492σ | Before recorded break | | Q1 2021 | −0.6578σ | Before recorded break | | Q2 2021 | −0.4190σ | Before recorded break | | Q3 2021 | −0.2825σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +0.0432σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +0.0594σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +0.4374σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +0.6985σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +0.3583σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +0.2059σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +0.1705σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +0.3201σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +0.0817σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.2481σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.4212σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.5904σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.5945σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.4492σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.6134σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.6260σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.8660σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.7321σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +1.0353σ | Ranked | Composite Z-Score+1.0353σQ2 2026 Position100.0empirical percentile rank, against 20 quarters Vintage2026-Q3 Components Present3 of 3 Weight Present100% AMVI Contribution Weight0.10 No population mean, standard deviation or observation count is published on this page for the composite itself, because those parameters are not part of the certified figures for this node. Where a figure is not certified, this page states NIL RETURN rather than estimating one. 5 Analytical Interpretation The certified composite reading of +1.0353σ (Q2 2026) indicates construction cost and supply-chain pressure running above its historical average, and it is the highest reading the node has recorded on its current basis. The state-level output/input spread remains the largest contributor and construction insolvencies have risen to sit a full standard deviation above their norm; input-cost escalation and approvals volumes sit close to average. Node 21260 · InputsInput Z-Scores, March Quarter 2026The gold shape is each input’s Z-score in the June quarter 2026: state output/input price spread +1.8724σ, construction insolvencies +1.0300σ, input price growth +0.0668σ and dwelling approvals +0.3403σ. The grey dashed ring marks 0σ, each input’s baseline average. The spread and insolvency inputs each carry one-third of the node’s weight, and input price growth and dwelling approvals one-sixth each. **Position.** Empirical percentile rank 100.0, against the 20 full-coverage quarters the node holds on the current industry coding of its insolvency input (September 2021 to June 2026). **The basis changed this quarter.** Until now the node held fewer than the 20 quarters an empirical ranking requires, so its position was a model-based estimate read from the Z-score. The June quarter 2026 reading is the twentieth, so the position is now a rank against the node's own history: it sits above all 19 comparable quarters, which is what a reading of 100.0 means here. 6Other Components The other eight components of Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). [Node 21210Interest RatesReads the cost of capital from the cash rate, retail lending rates, the two-year forward bond yield and the share of new lending at high debt-to-income multiples.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21210-interest-rates/) [Node 21220InflationReads the inflation environment from headline, housing and trimmed-mean consumer prices, house construction producer prices and consumer inflation expectations.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21220-inflation/) [Node 21230Employment & GDPReads the strength of the labour market and of output growth, from Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) at equal weight.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) [Node 21240Household Finance & SpendingReads household financial position from the gap between investor and first home buyer lending growth, the gap between discretionary and non-discretionary spending, and the share of high debt-to-income lending.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21240/) [Node 21250Migration TrendsReads net overseas migration to Australia.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21250/) [Node 21270Credit VelocityReads the pace of new credit origination from new loan commitments, the share of lending at high debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, and lenders' interest spreads and serviceability settings.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21270/) [Node 21280Business InsolvencyReads companies entering external administration or having a controller appointed for the first time, with construction and all other industries as separate components, from ASIC insolvency statistics.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21280/) [Node 21290Construction Completion LagReads how long the pool of dwellings under construction is taking to clear, comparing the stock under construction against the rate at which dwellings are completed.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/series-21290/) [Parent index21200 — Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™)](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/) 7 Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21260 — Construction Costs & Supply Chain — Certified Built exclusively from Tier-1 institutional sources: the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Producer Price Indexes and Building Approvals) and ASIC (insolvency statistics, Series 1) - The composite is constructed from certified underlying series rather than published as a standalone raw indicator - The Q2 2026 composite of +1.0353σ is built from all three of the node’s components - The construction insolvency input’s baseline covers the 18 quarters from September 2021 to December 2025, after a change in how ASIC records industry in 2021; this shorter baseline is disclosed - No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified by:** APN Lead Systems Architect **Date:** 20 September 2026 **Next review:** Upon next quarterly series update ##### Node Parameters Node21260 Series21200 StatusCertified Composite Z+1.0353σ Position100.0 empirical PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q3 Components Present3 of 3 Weight Present100% AMVI Weight0.10