--- title: "21233 – Real Wage Growth" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21233-real-wage-growth/ date: 2026-10-04 modified: 2026-10-10 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21233 21230 — Employment & GDP family Certified Real Wage Growth Z-Score −0.5704σ Period Q2 2026 Position 13.5 of 112 qtrs Vintage 2026-Q4 1Node Definition Real Wage..." word_count: 926 --- # 21233 – Real Wage Growth - APN Codex Node 21233 21230 — Employment & GDP family Certified ### Real Wage Growth Z-Score−0.5704σPeriodQ2 2026Position13.5 of 112 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Real Wage Growth (21233) measures whether pay is keeping pace with prices: growth over the year in the Wage Price Index less growth over the year in the Consumer Price Index. Positive readings mean wages are rising faster than prices; negative readings mean the purchasing power of wages is falling. It belongs to the Employment & GDP family (21230) and is read in its own right. Real wages bear on housing through borrowing capacity and the share of income that rent and repayments absorb. The node reads hourly rates of pay for a fixed set of jobs, so it is not affected by changes in the mix of jobs or hours. Known limitations The Wage Price Index begins in September 1997, so growth over the year begins in September 1998. The Consumer Price Index measures prices faced by households in general, not by wage earners alone. Both indexes are quarterly; the measure is a difference of growth rates, in percentage points. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21233)** Z-Score Construction Current (Q2 2026)−0.5704σ wtWage Price Index growth over the year. June quarter 2026: +3.19% ptConsumer Price Index (All Groups) growth over the year. June quarter 2026: +3.94% μ, σBaseline mean and sample standard deviation of w − p, March quarter 2011 to December quarter 2025 (+0.05 points, 1.41 points, 60 quarters) **Metric typology:** single-series Z-score of a growth gap, in percentage points. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Wage Price Index, total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses, all sectors, all industries | ABS Wage Price Index, Australia (6345.0) | Quarterly | September quarter 1997 to June quarter 2026 | | Consumer Price Index, All Groups, Australia | ABS Consumer Price Index (6401.0), A2325846C | Quarterly | September quarter 1948 to June quarter 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases. No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, measured against the 2011–2025 baseline. Real Wage Growth (21233) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026−0.5704σ · position 13.5, ranked against 112 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, −0.5704σ, ranks 13.5 against 112 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −0.8986σ to +1.1740σ. The highest ranked reading was +1.8192σ in the June quarter 2012, and the lowest −3.2634σ in the December quarter 2022. The 2022 readings record the rise in inflation, when prices outpaced wages by up to 4.5 percentage points. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q3 1998 | +1.3459σ | Ranked | | Q4 1998 | +1.0832σ | Ranked | | Q1 1999 | +1.2959σ | Ranked | | Q2 1999 | +1.3761σ | Ranked | | Q3 1999 | +0.9072σ | Ranked | | Q4 1999 | +0.8213σ | Ranked | | Q1 2000 | −0.0969σ | Ranked | | Q2 2000 | −0.1404σ | Ranked | | Q3 2000 | −2.1076σ | Ranked | | Q4 2000 | −1.7827σ | Ranked | | Q1 2001 | −1.6237σ | Ranked | | Q2 2001 | −1.7047σ | Ranked | | Q3 2001 | +0.6945σ | Ranked | | Q4 2001 | +0.1455σ | Ranked | | Q1 2002 | +0.1479σ | Ranked | | Q2 2002 | +0.1183σ | Ranked | | Q3 2002 | −0.0044σ | Ranked | | Q4 2002 | +0.2547σ | Ranked | | Q1 2003 | +0.1300σ | Ranked | | Q2 2003 | +0.6355σ | Ranked | | Q3 2003 | +0.6917σ | Ranked | | Q4 2003 | +0.8638σ | Ranked | | Q1 2004 | +1.0438σ | Ranked | | Q2 2004 | +0.7751σ | Ranked | | Q3 2004 | +0.8664σ | Ranked | | Q4 2004 | +0.7567σ | Ranked | | Q1 2005 | +1.0635σ | Ranked | | Q2 2005 | +1.1174σ | Ranked | | Q3 2005 | +0.7546σ | Ranked | | Q4 2005 | +0.9030σ | Ranked | | Q1 2006 | +0.7357σ | Ranked | | Q2 2006 | −0.0139σ | Ranked | | Q3 2006 | −0.0444σ | Ranked | | Q4 2006 | +0.4745σ | Ranked | | Q1 2007 | +1.0110σ | Ranked | | Q2 2007 | +1.3949σ | Ranked | | Q3 2007 | +1.6723σ | Ranked | | Q4 2007 | +0.8023σ | Ranked | | Q1 2008 | −0.1471σ | Ranked | | Q2 2008 | −0.2672σ | Ranked | | Q3 2008 | −0.5697σ | Ranked | | Q4 2008 | +0.4058σ | Ranked | | Q1 2009 | +1.2741σ | Ranked | | Q2 2009 | +1.6299σ | Ranked | | Q3 2009 | +1.3256σ | Ranked | | Q4 2009 | +0.5365σ | Ranked | | Q1 2010 | −0.0079σ | Ranked | | Q2 2010 | −0.1024σ | Ranked | | Q3 2010 | +0.5409σ | Ranked | | Q4 2010 | +0.8373σ | Ranked | | Q1 2011 | +0.3653σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | +0.1123σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | +0.1093σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | +0.3000σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | +1.4179σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | +1.8192σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | +1.1803σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | +0.8431σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | +0.4233σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | +0.3147σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | +0.2761σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | −0.0744σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | −0.2092σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −0.3741σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | +0.1926σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | +0.5024σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | +0.6576σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | +0.4993σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | +0.5136σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | +0.3028σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | +0.5155σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | +0.7053σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | +0.3554σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | +0.2485σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | −0.1760σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −0.0063σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | +0.1110σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | +0.0559σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | +0.0067σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.0050σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | +0.2286σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | +0.3293σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | +0.7011σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | +0.5218σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | +0.3623σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | +0.2342σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | −0.0528σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | +1.4899σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | +0.4675σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | +0.3069σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | +0.2610σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | −1.4794σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | −0.6540σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | −0.8257σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | −1.9960σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | −2.5291σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | −2.9697σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | −3.2634σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | −2.4172σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | −1.7425σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | −0.9067σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +0.1170σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +0.2488σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.1351σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.4408σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.5385σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.6722σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.9154σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.0486σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | −0.1654σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | −0.6125σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | −0.5704σ | Ranked | Z-Score−0.5704σQ2 2026Position13.5ranked against 112 quartersReal wage growth−0.75 pointsJune quarter 2026Wage growth+3.19%Wage Price IndexPrice growth+3.94%Consumer Price IndexBaseline+0.05 / 1.41μ / σ, points 5Analytical Interpretation At −0.5704σ (Q2 2026), wages are falling behind prices: the Wage Price Index rose 3.19% over the year and the Consumer Price Index 3.94%, a gap of −0.75 points. **Position.** 13.5, ranked against 112 quarters since September 1998. Real wages have fallen over the year in each of the last three quarters, after rising by 1.34 points in the year to June 2025. The lowest reading on record is −3.2634σ in December 2022, when price growth exceeded wage growth by about 4.5 points; the highest is +1.8192σ in June 2012. 6The Employment & GDP Family The other nodes of the Employment & GDP family. Only Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) compose into Employment & GDP (21230); the others are read in their own right. [21231 →Labour Market TightnessEmployed share of the labour force and job vacancy rate. Q2 2026: +0.5983σ, 83.6 of 123 quarters. Composes into 21230.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21231-labour-market-tightness/)[21232 →Employment GrowthFilled jobs and hours worked, growth over the year. Q2 2026: +0.2795σ, 68.3 of 124 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21232-employment-growth/)[21234 →State Labour ConditionsEmployed share and job vacancy rate for each state and territory, against its own history. Q2 2026: −0.1378σ (ACT) to +0.9007σ (Queensland), 60 quarters each.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21234-state-labour-conditions/)[21235 →Growth per PersonGDP per capita, growth over the year. Q2 2026: −0.1030σ, 31.4 of 208 quarters. Composes into 21230.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21235-growth-per-person/)[21236 →Labour ProductivityGDP per hour worked, growth over the year. Q2 2026: −0.5493σ, 18.2 of 188 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21236-labour-productivity/)[21237 →Multifactor ProductivityMarket-sector multifactor productivity, annual growth. 2024-25: −1.1551σ, 13.8 of 30 years.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21237-multifactor-productivity/)[21238 →Business Investment GrowthPrivate non-dwelling construction and machinery and equipment investment, growth over the year. Q2 2026: +0.9727σ, 73.8 of 264 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21238-business-investment-growth/)[21239 →Construction ProductivityConstruction industry multifactor productivity, annual growth. 2024-25: −0.5400σ, 14.7 of 35 years.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21239-construction-productivity/)[Family hub →21230 — Employment & GDP](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21233 — Real Wage Growth — Certified Both inputs are sourced from Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS)- The Z-score of −0.5704σ (Q2 2026) is derived directly from the certified inputs against the 2011–2025 baseline, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 112 quarters- No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified:** 4 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21233 Family21230 StatusCertified Z-Score−0.5704σ Position13.5 of 112 qtrs PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Baseline μ+0.05 points Baseline σ1.41 points Baseline N60