--- title: "21231 – Labour Market Tightness" url: https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21231-labour-market-tightness/ date: 2026-10-04 modified: 2026-10-10 lang: en author: "Nicklas Clark" description: "APN Codex Node 21231 21230 — Employment & GDP Certified Labour Market Tightness Z-Score +0.5983σ Period Q2 2026 Position 83.6 of 123 qtrs Vintage 2026-Q4 1Node Definition Labour Market Tightness..." word_count: 1469 --- # 21231 – Labour Market Tightness - APN Codex Node 21231 21230 — Employment & GDP Certified ### Labour Market Tightness Z-Score+0.5983σPeriodQ2 2026Position83.6 of 123 qtrsVintage2026-Q4 1Node Definition Labour Market Tightness (21231) measures how scarce labour is in Australia: how small a share of the labour force is out of work, and how many jobs employers are trying to fill. Higher readings mean a tighter labour market. It is one of two components of Employment & GDP (21230), with Growth per Person (21235), and carries half of that node’s weight. Employment & GDP in turn carries a weighting of 0.15 in the Economic Factors (APN Aggregate Macro-Volatility Index™) (21200). A tight labour market supports household incomes and the capacity to service a mortgage, and it raises construction labour costs. The node measures the state of the labour market, not its direction of travel: employment growth is read separately within the 21230 family. Known limitations The ABS job vacancy series used here begins in August 1994 and was suspended between August 2008 and August 2009, so quarters without it are partial coverage and are not ranked. The ABS Labour Force Survey moved to a new collection model between April and August 2026; ABS states that the headline unemployment rate remains comparable across the change. 2Metric Definition **Primary metric: Node Z-Score (Z21231)** Composite Z-Score Construction Current (Q2 2026)+0.5983σ EtEmployed share of the labour force: 100 less the unemployment rate (Ut), persons, seasonally adjusted, in the final month of quarter t. June 2026: 95.57% (unemployment 4.43%) VtJob vacancy rate: job vacancies as a percentage of filled jobs, quarter t. June quarter 2026: 2.02% ZEach input standardised against its own 2011–2025 baseline (60 quarters, sample standard deviation) **Metric typology:** equal-weighted mean of two standardised rates. The unemployment rate enters as the employed share of the labour force, so that both inputs read higher when labour is scarcer. Both inputs are rates, so neither grows with the size of the economy. **Participation, shown as context.** The participation rate was 67.01% in June 2026, close to its record of 67.19% in January 2025. It is not an input. It has risen with time, from 61% in 1978, on long-run structural changes in the labour force, and it measures the supply of labour rather than how scarce labour is. **Underemployment, shown as context.** The underemployment rate is the share of the labour force that is employed but wants, and is available for, more hours. It was 6.45% in June 2026, up from 5.97% in March and the highest since August 2024, and eased to 6.19% in August. It is not an input. Its level rose from under 3% in the late 1970s to above 8% in the mid-2010s as part-time employment grew, a rise the unemployment rate does not share. Measured against the 2011–2025 baseline, the low underemployment of the mid-1990s would read as a tight labour market at a time when unemployment was above 8%. Labour Market Tightness (21231) · ContextUnderemployment and unemployment rates, persons, seasonally adjusted, February 1978 to August 2026**Underemployment rate (gold)**Unemployment rate (slate)Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia (6202.0), Tables X29 and 1. The underemployment rate is shown for context and does not enter the node reading. 3Data Sources | Input | Source | Frequency | Coverage | | ----- | ------ | --------- | -------- | | Unemployment rate, persons, seasonally adjusted (as the employed share of the labour force) | ABS Labour Force, Australia (6202.0), Table 1, A84423050A | Monthly; final month of each quarter | February 1978 to August 2026 | | Job vacancy rate | ABS Job Vacancies (6354.0, A590698F) divided by ABS Labour Account filled jobs (6150.0.55.003, A85389467J), both seasonally adjusted | Quarterly | September quarter 1994 to June quarter 2026 | | Participation rate, persons, seasonally adjusted (context only) | ABS Labour Force, Australia (6202.0), Table 1, A84423051C | Monthly | February 1978 to August 2026 | | Underemployment rate, persons, seasonally adjusted (context only) | ABS Labour Force, Australia (6202.0), Table X29, A85255725J | Monthly | February 1978 to August 2026 | Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases. A quarter is used only once its final month’s labour force figure and its vacancy survey are both published. No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node. 4Reading History The chart shows the node’s reading in every quarter, each input measured against its 2011–2025 baseline. Labour Market Tightness (21231) · Reading HistoryNode Z-Score by Quarter, March 2011 to June 2026+0.5983σ · position 83.6, ranked against 123 quarters**Reading, ranked quarters**Normal range (middle 80% of ranked quarters)**Current readingThe June quarter 2026 reading, +0.5983σ, ranks 83.6 against 123 quarters and sits inside the normal range of −2.3073σ to +0.8775σ. The highest ranked reading was +2.0506σ in the June quarter 2022, and the lowest −3.0270σ in the September quarter 1994. Before September 1994 the job vacancy rate is not yet published, and the vacancy survey was suspended from August 2008 to August 2009; those readings are drawn dashed and are not ranked. Show the data | Quarter | Reading | Basis | | ------- | ------- | ----- | | Q1 1978 | −0.6448σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1978 | −0.6454σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1978 | −0.6186σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1978 | −0.7010σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1979 | −0.6449σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1979 | −0.6167σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1979 | −0.6059σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1979 | −0.5445σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1980 | −0.4438σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1980 | −0.6559σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1980 | −0.5558σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1980 | −0.5066σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1981 | −0.3393σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1981 | −0.1353σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1981 | −0.3754σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1981 | −0.4933σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1982 | −0.6558σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1982 | −0.8993σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1982 | −1.2627σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1982 | −2.3449σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1983 | −2.6466σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1983 | −2.7851σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1983 | −2.8585σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1983 | −2.3753σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1984 | −2.2388σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1984 | −2.1773σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1984 | −1.9789σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1984 | −1.8608σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1985 | −1.9409σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1985 | −1.8893σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1985 | −1.6072σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1985 | −1.4577σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1986 | −1.5355σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1986 | −1.3853σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1986 | −1.7612σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1986 | −1.7755σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1987 | −1.8142σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1987 | −1.5798σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1987 | −1.4414σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1987 | −1.4271σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1988 | −1.3029σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1988 | −1.3479σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1988 | −0.9911σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1988 | −0.9358σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1989 | −0.6670σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1989 | −0.4842σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1989 | −0.4955σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1989 | −0.3957σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1990 | −0.5815σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1990 | −0.8115σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1990 | −1.2325σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1990 | −1.5871σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1991 | −2.2262σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1991 | −2.4307σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1991 | −2.6912σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1991 | −2.9343σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1992 | −2.9466σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1992 | −3.1168σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1992 | −3.0117σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1992 | −3.3425σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1993 | −3.1445σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1993 | −3.2166σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1993 | −3.0804σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 1993 | −3.0896σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 1994 | −2.8675σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 1994 | −2.5732σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 1994 | −3.0270σ | Ranked | | Q4 1994 | −2.7710σ | Ranked | | Q1 1995 | −2.7275σ | Ranked | | Q2 1995 | −2.5461σ | Ranked | | Q3 1995 | −2.5825σ | Ranked | | Q4 1995 | −2.4865σ | Ranked | | Q1 1996 | −2.5570σ | Ranked | | Q2 1996 | −2.5092σ | Ranked | | Q3 1996 | −2.6758σ | Ranked | | Q4 1996 | −2.6604σ | Ranked | | Q1 1997 | −2.6503σ | Ranked | | Q2 1997 | −2.4925σ | Ranked | | Q3 1997 | −2.3336σ | Ranked | | Q4 1997 | −2.2019σ | Ranked | | Q1 1998 | −2.1132σ | Ranked | | Q2 1998 | −2.0406σ | Ranked | | Q3 1998 | −2.0672σ | Ranked | | Q4 1998 | −1.7062σ | Ranked | | Q1 1999 | −1.7570σ | Ranked | | Q2 1999 | −1.4450σ | Ranked | | Q3 1999 | −1.6019σ | Ranked | | Q4 1999 | −1.3917σ | Ranked | | Q1 2000 | −1.2527σ | Ranked | | Q2 2000 | −1.0337σ | Ranked | | Q3 2000 | −0.9735σ | Ranked | | Q4 2000 | −1.1225σ | Ranked | | Q1 2001 | −1.3727σ | Ranked | | Q2 2001 | −1.6931σ | Ranked | | Q3 2001 | −1.6731σ | Ranked | | Q4 2001 | −1.7034σ | Ranked | | Q1 2002 | −1.4514σ | Ranked | | Q2 2002 | −1.4439σ | Ranked | | Q3 2002 | −1.2908σ | Ranked | | Q4 2002 | −1.2766σ | Ranked | | Q1 2003 | −1.1466σ | Ranked | | Q2 2003 | −1.1477σ | Ranked | | Q3 2003 | −1.0038σ | Ranked | | Q4 2003 | −0.9303σ | Ranked | | Q1 2004 | −0.8311σ | Ranked | | Q2 2004 | −0.6604σ | Ranked | | Q3 2004 | −0.6337σ | Ranked | | Q4 2004 | −0.3604σ | Ranked | | Q1 2005 | −0.3684σ | Ranked | | Q2 2005 | −0.3048σ | Ranked | | Q3 2005 | −0.3480σ | Ranked | | Q4 2005 | −0.4276σ | Ranked | | Q1 2006 | −0.2433σ | Ranked | | Q2 2006 | −0.1446σ | Ranked | | Q3 2006 | −0.0715σ | Ranked | | Q4 2006 | +0.0317σ | Ranked | | Q1 2007 | +0.0748σ | Ranked | | Q2 2007 | +0.1951σ | Ranked | | Q3 2007 | +0.2837σ | Ranked | | Q4 2007 | +0.2935σ | Ranked | | Q1 2008 | +0.3859σ | Ranked | | Q2 2008 | +0.3235σ | Ranked | | Q3 2008 | +0.4601σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2008 | +0.3060σ | Partial coverage | | Q1 2009 | −0.3201σ | Partial coverage | | Q2 2009 | −0.4025σ | Partial coverage | | Q3 2009 | −0.2930σ | Partial coverage | | Q4 2009 | −0.6413σ | Ranked | | Q1 2010 | −0.4646σ | Ranked | | Q2 2010 | −0.3048σ | Ranked | | Q3 2010 | −0.2053σ | Ranked | | Q4 2010 | −0.0299σ | Ranked | | Q1 2011 | −0.0677σ | Ranked | | Q2 2011 | −0.0804σ | Ranked | | Q3 2011 | −0.2826σ | Ranked | | Q4 2011 | −0.2937σ | Ranked | | Q1 2012 | −0.2766σ | Ranked | | Q2 2012 | −0.2942σ | Ranked | | Q3 2012 | −0.4985σ | Ranked | | Q4 2012 | −0.5446σ | Ranked | | Q1 2013 | −0.7618σ | Ranked | | Q2 2013 | −0.8400σ | Ranked | | Q3 2013 | −0.8701σ | Ranked | | Q4 2013 | −0.9798σ | Ranked | | Q1 2014 | −0.9432σ | Ranked | | Q2 2014 | −1.0094σ | Ranked | | Q3 2014 | −1.1171σ | Ranked | | Q4 2014 | −1.0347σ | Ranked | | Q1 2015 | −1.0265σ | Ranked | | Q2 2015 | −0.9396σ | Ranked | | Q3 2015 | −1.0077σ | Ranked | | Q4 2015 | −0.7462σ | Ranked | | Q1 2016 | −0.6634σ | Ranked | | Q2 2016 | −0.6961σ | Ranked | | Q3 2016 | −0.6399σ | Ranked | | Q4 2016 | −0.7072σ | Ranked | | Q1 2017 | −0.6949σ | Ranked | | Q2 2017 | −0.5830σ | Ranked | | Q3 2017 | −0.4183σ | Ranked | | Q4 2017 | −0.4720σ | Ranked | | Q1 2018 | −0.3823σ | Ranked | | Q2 2018 | −0.2271σ | Ranked | | Q3 2018 | −0.0352σ | Ranked | | Q4 2018 | −0.0123σ | Ranked | | Q1 2019 | −0.0549σ | Ranked | | Q2 2019 | −0.1883σ | Ranked | | Q3 2019 | −0.2157σ | Ranked | | Q4 2019 | −0.0603σ | Ranked | | Q1 2020 | −0.1625σ | Ranked | | Q2 2020 | −1.9428σ | Ranked | | Q3 2020 | −1.2168σ | Ranked | | Q4 2020 | −0.6953σ | Ranked | | Q1 2021 | −0.0557σ | Ranked | | Q2 2021 | +0.7566σ | Ranked | | Q3 2021 | +0.7506σ | Ranked | | Q4 2021 | +1.4044σ | Ranked | | Q1 2022 | +1.6031σ | Ranked | | Q2 2022 | +2.0506σ | Ranked | | Q3 2022 | +1.9983σ | Ranked | | Q4 2022 | +1.9255σ | Ranked | | Q1 2023 | +1.7892σ | Ranked | | Q2 2023 | +1.7190σ | Ranked | | Q3 2023 | +1.5578σ | Ranked | | Q4 2023 | +1.2381σ | Ranked | | Q1 2024 | +1.1326σ | Ranked | | Q2 2024 | +0.9788σ | Ranked | | Q3 2024 | +0.8937σ | Ranked | | Q4 2024 | +0.9717σ | Ranked | | Q1 2025 | +0.8126σ | Ranked | | Q2 2025 | +0.7443σ | Ranked | | Q3 2025 | +0.6192σ | Ranked | | Q4 2025 | +0.7924σ | Ranked | | Q1 2026 | +0.7286σ | Ranked | | Q2 2026 | +0.5983σ | Ranked | Z-Score+0.5983σQ2 2026Position83.6ranked against 123 quartersUnemployment rate4.43%June 2026Job vacancy rate2.02%June quarter 2026Employed share, z+0.7641μ 94.87%, σ 0.91Vacancy rate, z+0.4325μ 1.77%, σ 0.58 5Analytical Interpretation At +0.5983σ (Q2 2026), the labour market is tighter than its 2011–2025 average. **Position.** 83.6, ranked against 123 quarters since September 1994: 102 of the other 122 quarters read lower. The reading is the lowest since March 2021. It peaked at +2.0506σ in the June quarter 2022, when the vacancy rate reached 3.18%, the highest on record; unemployment reached its low of 3.44% in October 2022. Since then both inputs have eased: unemployment rose from 4.32% in June 2025 to 4.43% in June 2026, and the vacancy rate fell from 2.12% to 2.02%. Both remain on the tight side of their baselines, the employed share by 0.76 standard deviations and the vacancy rate by 0.43. 6The Employment & GDP Family The other nodes of the Employment & GDP family. Only Labour Market Tightness (21231) and Growth per Person (21235) compose into Employment & GDP (21230); the others are read in their own right. [21232 →Employment GrowthFilled jobs and hours worked, growth over the year. Q2 2026: +0.2795σ, 68.3 of 124 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21232-employment-growth/)[21233 →Real Wage GrowthWage Price Index growth less CPI growth. Q2 2026: −0.5704σ, 13.5 of 112 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21233-real-wage-growth/)[21234 →State Labour ConditionsEmployed share and job vacancy rate for each state and territory, against its own history. Q2 2026: −0.1378σ (ACT) to +0.9007σ (Queensland), 60 quarters each.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21234-state-labour-conditions/)[21235 →Growth per PersonGDP per capita, growth over the year. Q2 2026: −0.1030σ, 31.4 of 208 quarters. Composes into 21230.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21235-growth-per-person/)[21236 →Labour ProductivityGDP per hour worked, growth over the year. Q2 2026: −0.5493σ, 18.2 of 188 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21236-labour-productivity/)[21237 →Multifactor ProductivityMarket-sector multifactor productivity, annual growth. 2024-25: −1.1551σ, 13.8 of 30 years.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21237-multifactor-productivity/)[21238 →Business Investment GrowthPrivate non-dwelling construction and machinery and equipment investment, growth over the year. Q2 2026: +0.9727σ, 73.8 of 264 quarters.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21238-business-investment-growth/)[21239 →Construction ProductivityConstruction industry multifactor productivity, annual growth. 2024-25: −0.5400σ, 14.7 of 35 years.](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/21239-construction-productivity/)[Parent index →21230 — Employment & GDP](https://australianproperty.network/apn-codex/series-20000/series-21000/series-21200/21230-employment-gdp/) 7Certification Statement APN Codex Node 21231 — Labour Market Tightness — Certified Both inputs are sourced from Tier-1 sovereign statistical releases (ABS)- The Z-score of +0.5983σ (Q2 2026) is derived directly from the certified inputs against their 2011–2025 baselines, not manually entered or estimated- The position is an empirical percentile rank against 123 quarters in which both inputs are present- The ABS Labour Force Survey collection change of April to August 2026 is disclosed- No commercial data provider dependency exists within this node **Certified:** 4 October 2026 **Source tier:** Tier-1 sovereign statistical agency (ABS) ##### Node Parameters Node21231 Parent21230 StatusCertified Z-Score+0.5983σ Position83.6 of 123 qtrs PeriodQ2 2026 Vintage2026-Q4 Inputs2, equal weight Baseline2011–2025 Weight in 212300.50