--- title: "The Income Divergence: A Decade of Taxable Income Growth Across Australia’s 50 Most Populous LGAs" url: https://australianproperty.network/analysis/demographic-analysis/demographic-trend-analysis-demographic-analysis/the-income-divergence-a-decade-of-taxable-income-growth-across-australias-50-most-populous-lgas/ date: 2026-07-13 modified: 2026-10-06 lang: en author: "APN LGA Intelligence" description: "Sydney's median taxable income grew 51.5% nominally over the decade to 2023-24 - 16.3% in real terms. Melbourne's grew 16.2% nominally, a 10.9% real-terms decline. An APN LGA Intelligence analysis of a decade of ATO taxation data, CPI-deflated, across Australia's 50 most populous LGAs." categories: - "Demographic Trend Analysis" tags: - "24111" - "APN Bedrock" - "ATO" - "LGA Intelligence" - "Melbourne" - "Sydney" - "Taxable Income" word_count: 926 --- # The Income Divergence: A Decade of Taxable Income Growth Across Australia’s 50 Most Populous LGAs ### The Income Divergence: A Decade of Taxable Income Growth Across Australia’s 50 Most Populous LGAs Over the decade to 2023-24, median taxable income in the City of Sydney grew 51.5 per cent in nominal terms — 16.3 per cent once adjusted for inflation. In the City of Melbourne, nominal income grew 16.2 per cent, which after inflation is a real-terms decline of 10.9 per cent. Both are dense, apartment-heavy, CBD-anchored LGAs with near-identical socio-economic advantage on paper. A decade of ATO taxation data, deflated against the ABS All Groups CPI, says their income trajectories have almost nothing else in common — and in real terms, one grew while the other went backwards. #### A Decade in Nominal and Real Terms Comparing ATO median taxable income by LGA between 2013-14 and 2023-24 across the 49 most populous LGAs with a clean match in both years, nominal growth ranges from 16.2 per cent (Melbourne) to 51.5 per cent (Sydney). Deflating against the ABS All Groups CPI (node 21220, series 28 — average of the four quarters within each tax year: 72.948 for 2013-14, 95.073 for 2023-24, a cumulative 30.3 per cent price rise over the decade) turns this into a real-growth range of −10.9 per cent (Melbourne) to +16.3 per cent (Sydney). Six of the 49 LGAs — Melbourne, Fairfield, Swan, Wyndham, Cumberland and Stirling — recorded a real-terms decline in median taxable income over the decade despite posting nominal growth throughout. 10-Year Nominal Income Growth vs APN Bedrock Composite, 49 LGAs 20 35 50 65 80 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 10-year median taxable income growth, 2013-14 to 2023-24 (nominal) APN Bedrock composite score Sydney / Melbourne Each point is one of the 49 LGAs with a clean 2013-14/2023-24 match, plotted on nominal growth. Because CPI deflation is a uniform scaling adjustment across all LGAs, correlations against real growth are identical. Gold points are Sydney and Melbourne. Dashed line is the linear trend (r = 0.421). #### What Correlates With a Decade of Growth Ten-year income growth correlates moderately with APN Bedrock composite (r = 0.421) — LGAs with stronger property markets today also saw stronger income growth over the preceding decade. It correlates weakly negatively with 2024-25 population growth (r = −0.329): LGAs absorbing the fastest recent population growth tend to show slower median income growth, consistent with rapid intake of new, typically younger and lower-income households diluting the median in outer growth corridors. It shows no relationship at all with the 2013-14 starting income level (r = −0.009) — growth over the decade was independent of where an LGA started, with neither convergence nor divergence by initial income. These correlations hold identically whether measured in nominal or real terms, since CPI deflation applies the same scaling factor to every LGA. #### Ten-Year Income Growth, Ranked | Rank | LGA | Nominal Growth | Real Growth | Bedrock Composite | | ---- | --- | -------------- | ----------- | ----------------- | | 1 | Sydney | +51.5% | +16.3% | 45.96 | | 2 | Sutherland | +48.1% | +13.6% | 67.55 | | 3 | Sunshine Coast | +48.0% | +13.5% | 43.85 | | 4 | Kingston (Vic.) | +46.6% | +12.5% | 55.40 | | 5 | Northern Beaches | +46.4% | +12.4% | 66.57 | | 6 | Greater Geelong | +45.6% | +11.7% | 46.63 | | 7 | The Hills | +45.4% | +11.6% | 69.18 | | 8 | Mornington Peninsula | +45.0% | +11.3% | 52.77 | | 9 | Central Coast (NSW) | +43.9% | +10.4% | 39.89 | | 10 | Gold Coast | +43.5% | +10.1% | 43.45 | | 11 | Lake Macquarie | +43.3% | +9.9% | 45.58 | | 12 | Inner West | +43.1% | +9.8% | 52.64 | | 13 | Cairns | +41.9% | +8.9% | 42.75 | | 14 | Newcastle | +41.0% | +8.2% | 44.91 | | 15 | Blacktown | +41.0% | +8.2% | 44.37 | | 16 | Onkaparinga | +40.6% | +7.9% | 42.77 | | 17 | Knox | +40.7% | +7.9% | 54.38 | | 18 | Wollongong | +40.2% | +7.6% | 43.17 | | 19 | Redland | +40.0% | +7.4% | 52.11 | | 20 | Penrith | +39.9% | +7.3% | 47.59 | | 21 | Moreton Bay | +39.6% | +7.2% | 42.36 | | 22 | Brisbane | +38.8% | +6.5% | 55.86 | | 23 | Whittlesea | +38.6% | +6.4% | 40.53 | | 24 | Ipswich | +37.6% | +5.6% | 38.88 | | 25 | Parramatta | +37.0% | +5.1% | 47.34 | | 26 | Toowoomba | +36.9% | +5.0% | 42.90 | | 27 | Georges River | +36.9% | +5.0% | 48.02 | | 28 | Bayside (NSW) | +36.0% | +4.3% | 42.05 | | 29 | Casey | +35.7% | +4.1% | 48.69 | | 30 | Monash | +35.4% | +3.9% | 46.13 | | 31 | Boroondara | +34.8% | +3.4% | 58.87 | | 32 | Logan | +34.6% | +3.3% | 38.97 | | 33 | Townsville | +34.5% | +3.2% | 46.27 | | 34 | Greater Dandenong | +34.4% | +3.1% | 28.02 | | 35 | Campbelltown (NSW) | +34.2% | +3.0% | 35.31 | | 36 | Whitehorse | +34.1% | +2.9% | 47.66 | | 37 | Melton | +33.9% | +2.7% | 47.42 | | 38 | Brimbank | +33.9% | +2.7% | 33.28 | | 39 | Liverpool | +33.7% | +2.6% | 38.21 | | 40 | Hume | +33.6% | +2.5% | 38.40 | | 41 | Joondalup | +32.5% | +1.7% | 67.94 | | 42 | Wanneroo | +30.9% | +0.5% | 50.69 | | 43 | Canterbury-Bankstown | +31.0% | +0.5% | 28.79 | | 44 | Stirling | +30.1% | -0.2% | 50.60 | | 45 | Cumberland | +29.7% | -0.5% | 26.37 | | 46 | Wyndham | +28.9% | -1.1% | 45.85 | | 47 | Swan | +28.4% | -1.5% | 50.11 | | 48 | Fairfield | +26.6% | -2.8% | 19.88 | | 49 | Melbourne | +16.2% | -10.9% | 39.65 | #### Melbourne’s Pattern Isn’t Isolated This is the third independent measure in which Melbourne underperforms what its profile on paper would predict. A companion analysis of this sample found Melbourne posts one of the largest negative residuals against IRSAD-predicted Bedrock composite, and separately identified it as the most apartment-dense of the sample’s decile-10 LGAs. Weakest decade-long income growth in the sample — in both nominal and real terms, and the only outright real-terms decline of more than a percentage point or two — is a third, independently sourced data point pointing the same direction. No single one of these is conclusive on its own; together, from three unrelated datasets, they describe a consistent pattern worth a dedicated look. **Correction, October 2026.** The APN Bedrock™ (24110) figures in this piece are restated on Bedrock methodology v1.1, which joins every Census figure to its locality by the ABS suburb code, reads unemployment for all persons and reads the SEIFA advantage and disadvantage index (IRSAD); each LGA reading is the population-weighted mean of its localities of more than 200 residents. #### Methodology Note Median taxable income figures are drawn from ATO Taxation Statistics, aggregated from postcode level to LGA level via mesh-block-weighted concordance (poa_lga_concordance, person-weighted). This is a distinct measure from the Income Velocity & Wealth pillar (node 24111) that feeds APN Bedrock composite, which is built from 2021 Census median household income — a single-year snapshot, not the decade-long individual taxable income trend analysed here. The two are conceptually related but not the same data, and the correlation reported above (r = 0.421) should be read with that distinction in mind. Real growth is calculated by deflating each LGA’s nominal income ratio against the ABS All Groups CPI (the same series used by node 21220, Inflation), using the average of the four quarterly CPI readings falling within each tax year. Of the 50 most populous LGAs compiled through the APN LGA Intelligence Routine, 49 match cleanly across both ATO tax years; Merri-bek is currently excluded from this analysis because the ATO series still carries it under its pre-2022 name and code (Moreland, 25250) rather than its current code (24700) — a crosswalk is needed before it can be added. Findings here describe the sample analysed only and should not be read as representative of the full national distribution of Australia’s 547 Local Government Areas.